Searching for Value in UDFAs (Undrafted Free Agents)
Emotions tend to run particularly high this time of year. This is true for players hoping to hear their name called on Thursday, Friday or even Saturday during the NFL Draft. It is true for coaches and owners hoping to find that last key player to fill a glaring hole. It is even true with us fantasy football players who watch the NFL Draft with baited breath to see if any rookies drafted will help us make a run to our league championship. However, with all good things this party must come to an end and we must assess what happens now.
For those players who went undrafted Sunday (or even as soon as Saturday evening), brings with it harsh realities most and excellent opportunities for a few others. Every year we see a few players fall through the cracks and go undrafted despite the fact that everything suggests they should have been taken. It is the nature of the draft in some instances, maybe a player is at a position that isn’t of particular need this season or maybe the teams who need that position also have more glaring and immediate needs. Some players go undrafted either because they simply aren’t good enough to expend a pick on, but are talented enough to play in the NFL. Finally, some players go undrafted because of health or character concerns.
If you were watching the NFL Draft on the NFL Network like I was on that Saturday, you may have heard the panel discuss the fact that, ironically, some players might be better off going undrafted as opposed to being drafted in the last round. It sounds funny because so much is focused on a player getting drafted. There is a sense you are a legitimate player or talent if a team takes a risk and drafts you. However, in reality, if you’re drafted in the seventh round you are locked onto a team that likely doesn’t think particularly highly of you, views you as a project or might be using you solely for special teams. On the other hand, if you go undrafted, the tables are suddenly turned. An undrafted free agent can field offers from multiple teams and can choose where he wants to go as opposed to being essentially assigned to a team.
So who are these guys? Where are they going? Are they going into good situations? Why did they go undrafted in the first place?
So many questions!
Let’s look at some of these players and see if we can make some sense of this.
T.J. Moe, WR MIZZ
5’-11” – 204 lbs
Attending Camp Of: New England Patriots
Background: Moe is immediately going to remind many of Wes Welker, the comparison is even more glaring due to the fact the Patriots are taking an interest in him. If New England hadn’t signed Danny Amendola during the off-season, I’m pretty sure they would have drafted Moe and let him and Julian Edelman duke it out for the starting slot role. As it sits, Moe now comes into Patriots camp with the potential to slide onto the roster, but just as much potential to become a camp causality. In the end, I think he’ll get stashed on the practice squad and might make it to an NFL roster somewhere in the season.
Situation: Good
Chance of Surviving Cuts: 60%
Immediate Fantasy Value: Low
Long Term Fantasy Value: Fair
Da’Rick Rogers, WR TENN TECH
6’-2” – 217 lbs
Attending Camp Of: Buffalo Bills
Background: Rogers has immense talent, but it is his off the field issues that doomed his draft status. Rogers failed multiple drug tests, had several run-ins with coaches, had a “meltdown” at Tennessee and finally transferred to Tennessee Tech. I had Rogers pegged as the fifth best wide receiver talent from a fantasy perspective coming into the draft. That ranking obviously takes a hit based on the fact he went undrafted and landed on a team suddenly stocked with wide receiver talent. In addition to the already potent Stevie Johnson, the Bills added Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin as well as another undrafted wide receiver I’ll get to next. Simply put, Rogers has zero room to mess up. If he can get his head on straight and play like we know he can, he’ll likely catch on. If not, he will be dumped quickly.
Situation: Fair
Chance of Surviving Cuts: 75%
Immediate Fantasy Value: Fair
Long Term Fantasy Value: Good
Brandon Kaufman, WR EAST WASH
6’-5” – 216 lbs
Attending Camp Of: Buffalo Bills
Background: Kaufman was always going to be a fringe draftable player in this draft. His big selling point was his height and body frame – perfect for red zone work. The Bills don’t look to have a huge need for his services, but the opportunity is there for him to seize if he is able to. His low speed might ultimately be his undoing, though.
Situation: Fair
Chance of Surviving Cuts: 25%
Immediate Fantasy Value: Poor
Long Term Fantasy Value: Poor
Cierre Wood, RB ND
5’-11” – 213 lbs
Attending Camp Of: Houston Texans
Background: Wood has a lot of talent and now he might be going to the best possible spot he could go, the Texans. Why the Texans? They have Arian Foster, so it sounds like permanent exile to the bench. However, several things may be lining up for this to be a good landing spot. First, third stringer Justin Forsett left to sign with the Jacksonville Jaguars and while being a third string back, he still managed to rake in 63 carries for 374 yards and a touchdown. Next, Ben Tate is in a contract year and is likely to ask for more than the Texans will be willing to pay him. Finally, Foster is a favorite among several fantasy experts to start to see a regression in his statistics. When you factor all of this in with Houston’s run-friendly, zone-blocking scheme and couple it with Wood’s natural running talent, you get a very interesting undrafted free agent to keep an eye on.
Situation: Good
Chance of Surviving Cuts: 75%
Immediate Fantasy Value: Fair
Long Term Fantasy Value: Good
Matt Scott, QB ARI
6’-2” – 213 lbs
Attending Camp Of: Jacksonville Jaguars
Background: Scott was rumored to be going to Jacksonville (and Philadelphia) at the top of the fourth round, but ultimately he slipped through the cracks and went undrafted. Jacksonville desperately needs some talent at quarterback as both Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne just aren’t the answer. Oddly enough, Scoot and Jacksonville make perfect sense for each other. Scott is a highly mobile quarterback who can keep a play moving with his legs and can create mismatches for the defense. I wouldn’t be very surprised to hear Scott’s name in the conversation surrounding the starting quarterback job come the preseason.
Situation: Excellent
Chance of Surviving Cuts: 90%
Immediate Fantasy Value: Good
Long Term Fantasy Value: Very Good
Tyler Bray, QB TEN
6’-6” – 232 lbs
Attending Camp Of: Kansas City Chiefs
Background: Bray was a lot higher on a lot of experts’ draft boards, but this is exactly where I had him pegged. Bray has a lot of problems and is going to need a lot of coaching to take full advantage of his physical gifts. He has a big arm, but is extremely inconsistent with his throws despite having one of the best receiving corps in recent memory. His inconsistency is due in large part to his mechanics which need a lot of work. Bray will now be backing up Alex Smith, one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league. If he is smart, he will be following around Smith like a puppy dog and will become a sponge for everything he is being told by players and coaches. He needs a lot of work but the opportunity he is being given is perfect for his needs.
Situation: Very Good
Chance of Surviving Cuts: 80%
Immediate Fantasy Value: Poor
Long Term Fantasy Value: Fair
Conner Vernon, WR DUKE
6’-0” – 196 lbs
Attending Camp Of: Oakland Raiders
Background: Vernon is the ACC’s all-time leader in receptions and receiving yards, but went undrafted – that’s pretty shocking when you think about it. He has received praise from both Manning brothers as well, something not handed out lightly. Why did he go undrafted? That’s a great question. I can only guess that it has to do with his speed (which is just average), but that doesn’t explain it either as plenty of players with slower speeds were drafted while he wasn’t. Vernon now finds himself with the Oakland Raiders who have had plenty of issues at wide receiver the past few years. With a couple of injuries that seem to happen every year on the Raiders squad, I think we will see Vernon given a chance to shine.
Situation: Good
Chance of Surviving Cuts: 70%
Immediate Fantasy Value: Fair
Long Term Fantasy Value: Good
Onterio McCalebb, RB AUB
5’-10” – 168 lbs
Attending Camp Of: Cincinnati Bengals
Background: McCalebb is about as fast as they come with a clocked 4.34 40-yard dash and his on the field skills are just as flashy. Why didn’t McCalebb get drafted? Simple, he only weighs 168 pounds! His body simply will not be able to withstand constant carries in the NFL. So, what to do with him is the question. He has talent, so he may find himself a spot somewhere, doing something. Some early talk revolves around possibly moving him to a wide receiver or scat back role, something that would minimize the damage he could sustain and maximize the playmaking ability he has. Ultimately, he might stick by playing a role on special teams but his value isn’t very high.
Situation: Poor
Chance of Surviving Cuts: 40%
Immediate Fantasy Value: Poor
Long Term Fantasy Value: Poor
Miguel Maysonet, RB Stony Brook
5’-9” – 209 lbs
Attending Camp Of: Philadelphia Eagles
Background: Maysonet was one of the highest ranked small school prospects coming into the draft with many (including myself) expecting to hear his name come day two or three. It seems his small school status weighed heavily upon the minds of NFL Teams. After the draft, Maysonet agreed to attend Philadelphia’s training camp which features a fairly crowded backfield collection which includes LeSean McCoy, Bryce Brown and Chris Polk. To catch on, he will have to beat out Polk (which is possible), but will be a challenge for any undrafted free agent.
Situation: Poor
Chance of Surviving Cuts: 50%
Immediate Fantasy Value: Poor
Long Term Fantasy Value: Fair
Joseph Fauria, TE UCLA
6’-7” – 255 lbs
Attending Camp Of: Detroit Lions
Background: Fauria is a one of those prospects that several people are fairly shocked did not get drafted. He was ranked usually within the top ten tight end prospects of this draft, but ended up on the outside looking in when 16 tight ends were drafted, which is exactly where I had him prior to the draft. Fauria has the kind of size NFL teams droll over and has good hands. However, he is very bad at blocking, which is something NFL teams take very seriously. With the Lions, Fauria can work on his blocking technique without the team needing to throw him on the field immediately.
Situation: Good
Chance of Surviving Cuts: 70%
Immediate Fantasy Value: Poor
Long Term Fantasy Value: Good
Since the end of the draft on Saturday, each team in the NFL has agreed to bring in at least ten undrafted free agents. Some teams, such as Atlanta, have agreed to bring in many more than the current league average. All of these players will not find a roster spot, in fact very few will. The players examined in this article have a better shot than most, but when these players face an uphill battle. In the end, I think many of these players will catch on somewhere, but even catching with a team doesn’t mean a whole lot for fantasy owners if they never see the field. If you’re late into a rookie draft or even a deep start-up draft, taking a chance on one or more of these players couldn’t hurt.
