April Madness: How to Handle Your Rookie Draft

Corey Mauer Posted On May 4, 2013

The madness has come and gone. Every expert opinion was either proven correct or easily dismissed. There were cheers of exuberance as well as tears of sadness. For possibly the first time in their lives, these college athletes were given more attention than professionals—even if it was just for the moment.

Am I talking about the NFL draft that recently took place? Not at all.

I’m talking about March Madness.

March Madness (college basketball’s championship tournament) is one of the only times of the year when everybody and their Great Aunt Suzie is a verified sports critic. Everyone makes a bracket, they all think their picks are perfect, everyone believes their logic is sound and then, inevitably, nearly everyone is cut back down to size as their upset specials don’t pan out and their would-be champions are prematurely dethroned.

By the end of the tournament, most people have come to see that many of the picks that they once felt so sure of have turned out to be wrong. Just why is that?

In many cases, so many games are predicted incorrectly due to the fact that people get caught up in thinking that the “Cinderella stories” are going to happen with great frequency. Sure, it’s fun to root for the little guy, but when you pick half of the little guys on the bracket to upset perennial powerhouses, you will almost certainly lose all but one or two of those gambles.

Yes, I admit, if you swing for the fences enough with your picks, you will get glory and praise when Backwoods Southwest Appalachian Institute of Grass and Tree Bark upsets a school like Duke or Kansas, but you will also get a lot of mocking and ridicule thrown your way when all your other upset picks end up failing you. In reality, you are far better suited playing it safe and selecting your known contenders because, quite simply, they win more games. Minimize risk by picking favorites, and then trust your gut on only a limited few long shots.

Regardless of the picks made on your bracket, March Madness concluded, a champion was crowned and the sports world moved on to focus on the next big event: the 2013 NFL Draft. And, interestingly enough, a similar philosophy to filling out your tournament bracket can be applied to successfully navigating your dynasty league’s rookie draft.

First and second round picks are fun, exciting, flashy and can be franchise changing in dynasty leagues; however, unless you find yourself in complete rebuilding mode, you should not give up too much to attain them.

Drafting is an inexact science—one that even the experts and time-tested scouts haven’t quite mastered — so to assume any draft pick is a “sure thing” is very dangerous.

That being said, one can see it presents great risk to give up a substantial amount to go out and get a virtually unknown entity in a rookie. For example, if you were to package a deal around a player to go out and get an early round pick, you are going to have to give up a talented starter to make that happen. Dynasty team owners don’t give up premium draft picks for backup quarterbacks or 35-year-old running backs – it is going to take a skilled player. All of this begs the question of if you have to give up a talented player to get a chance at attaining a potentially talented player, why give up known entity?

The other common route for getting your hands on an early round draft pick is to create a package of lower draft picks to entice the holder of the premium pick. Similar problems arise with this strategy, however, in that owners aren’t going to give up a first-round pick for a series of very late round picks. Also, as mentioned previously, drafting is an inexact science, so if you can hold on to your first three picks as opposed to packaging many of them away in order to grab one first-round pick, then you are giving yourself more chances to get lucky and hit it big with one of your picks.

As we all know by now, success in fantasy football is all about minimizing risk. The rookie draft itself is not risky; however, it can be made risky if you get too adventurous by trying to attain exciting, early round draft picks unnecessarily.

As with anything else in the complex world of dynasty football leagues, however, there is a silver lining to this philosophy of risk minimization. If you are in a rebuilding stage and need that franchise player to build around for years to come, then by all means, do what it takes to get the first round pick necessary to attain the player you want (after all, if you’re rebuilding, what do you have to lose?). Another scenario in which you should throw caution to the wind and go all-in for a rookie is if you are absolutely in love with him as a player. At the end of the day, you are the owner. If your gut says ‘Go get this guy,’ or if he went to your Alma Mater and you can’t stand to see another owner snatch him up, or if you just know this is a can’t-miss prospect, go do what it takes to get him. You may never forgive yourself if you don’t.

Keep in mind that all too true statement I made earlier – drafting is an inexact science. Minimize your risk and don’t auction off key parts of your team if you don’t need to do so. Just remember, the 15 and 16 seeds are a combined 7-225 in the opening round of the NCAA basketball tournament. For every Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III chosen in the rookie draft, there is a JaMarcus Russell or a Brady Quinn or a Ryan Leaf.