Don’t Make These Mistakes

Editor’s Note: Over the next few weeks, we’re going to be providing rankings and opinions galore here at DLF, especially on the rookie class.  Our rankings pages  will be constantly updated to give you the average rankings of multiple writers from Team DLF. You also have access to our Rookie Draft Cheat Sheet.  One thing we really discourage is the “group think” mentality. Our goal is to provide you lots of different insights and opinions so you can make the most educated rookie picks in your own draft. Good luck and thanks for your support of DLF!

Inevitably there are rookies who will consistently be over or underdrafted due to knee jerk reactions to landing spots in the NFL.  We’re here to help you take advantage of your league-mates’ mistakes.

Before we get to the players, let’s consider some of the most common mistakes.  And, of course, past examples because that’s the fun part.

Mistake One: “Daniel Thomas Syndrome.”  This is the most prevalent and arguably worst mistake to make.  This is when an average to below average running back goes to a prime time situation.  This immediately causes players to vault up boards and ends up costing the victim a mid-first rounder usually.  You have to avoid this one because mid-firsts are valuable.  But this one also can be used to great advantage.  When Thomas leaped up boards, I took the opportunity to trade the 1.05 rookie pick for a still unproven CJ Spiller.  Talent rises to the top in most cases (sorry J.Stew fans).

Mistake Two: “AJ Green-it is.”  A relatively new virus that has afflicted the dynasty community.  It’s an overwhelming feeling that WRs need to contribute ASAP because AJ Green and Julio Jones became instant successes.  What happens here is the opposite of Daniel Thomas Syndrome.  WRs get pushed down boards because their situation looks bleak.  Example: Randall Cobb fell to the second in many rookie drafts because his situation looked dire – pinned behind a mix of proven veterans and promising developmental players.

Mistake Three: “Inflammation of the Team Needs.”  Another common malady.  Reaching on players because of need and thereby passing on more talented players.  Need I say more?

Now that we know what to look for, who are some players to watch out for and how can we take advantage of this?

Destined to Be Overdrafted

Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT and Montee Ball, RB DEN

Bell is a serious carrier of Daniel Thomas Syndrome and will likely spread it to your league.  The depth chart in Pittsburgh would suggest he has a chance to be a day one starter.  Jonathan Dwyer has largely disappointed and LaRod Stephens-Howling is a change of pace back.  Here’s the problem: Le’Veon Bell isn’t very good.  He’s a big back who doesn’t use his size/power effectively.  That’s bad.  Your upside here is Shonn Greene v2.0, your downside is (you guessed it) Thomas.

Ball has similar issues to Bell, but is a better player.  The problem is that Ball is vaulting up boards in to the top three.  Simply put, there are players with equally good situations and more talent to be had.  Don’t become overly enamored with the situation.  Ball is a volume back and I’m not sure Denver can feed him the rock enough to realize his value.

The good news about Bell and Ball is you can use this to your distinct advantage.  I see a drop in value after the 1.04 pick.  In some order, my top four is Gio Bernard, Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Patterson.  These are all players I covet and I would break the ties based on team needs, scoring system and personal preference.  Chances are Eddie Lacy will go off around 1.05 – higher in some leagues, maybe lower in others.  I’m okay with that and I wouldn’t blame someone for taking a shot with him.

If you hold a mid-first, Bell and Ball both give you a chance to flip it for some serious existing player value.  There aren’t alternative players here I love, so cash in the value that these guys represent – but likely won’t deliver upon.  The type of owner who would want these running backs is impatient.  I’d target good wide receiver prospects who haven’t yet delivered.  Some examples are Michael Floyd, Alshon Jeffery and Kendall Wright.  These are all players I’d rather have than anyone after the top five guys I listed above.

Another approach if you are in the mid-first with Bell and/or Ball on the board is to trade down.  There’s a nice tier of players in the late first including Robert Woods, Keenan Allen, Marcus Wheaton, etc.  Getting one of them plus, say a second rounder (or maybe even a 2014 first) is better value than taking either of the running backs.

Tyler Eifert, TE CIN

This will be controversial for sure.  I’m putting it out there – I think Eifert gets overdrafted.  Eifert has a lot going for him – he’s safe, the situation is good and he’s a draftnick darling so his name is well known.  But I see a few issue with Eifert from a dynasty perspective.

First, he’s better than the other prospects in this class for sure, but how much better?  Is Eifert worth a mid-to-late first if Travis Kelce can be had for a late second?  They aren’t that far apart in my opinion and the draft is all about getting the most value you can.

Second, is it worth drafting any tight end?  There are so many prospect tight ends out there.  In some leagues they are probably on the WW and if they’re not you can use rookie fever to get one by trading a second or third round pick.  Just like with Kelce, you could trade a late second for Rob Housler or Jordan Cameron.  Again, the value is higher doing this than using a first on Eifert.

I like Eifert as an NFL player and I think Cincy was smart to take him.  The issue here is simply about maximizing the impact of your rookie picks.  I don’t think taking him in the first does this unless you are in a league that highly rewards the tight end via a premium.

Destined to Be Underdrafted

Justin Hunter, WR TEN

Maybe I’m wrong, but I think he’ll slip further than he should in non-expert leagues.  The situation and talent can be made to look rather grim:

• Questionable quarterback
• Poor hands and a quarterback with accuracy issues (bad mix)
• Depth chart is packed (Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright, Nate Washington, Delanie Walker)

My advice – sell those points in to anyone in your league who will listen.

Hunter is a solid prospect and, while nothing is guaranteed, he has tremendous upside.  Also, he’s a perfect fit in Tennessee if you scratch beneath the surface.  Nate Washington is aging and overpaid.  Kenny Britt is nearing the end of his contract and the end of his rope at the same time.  Kendall Wright has the exact skill set to complement Hunter.  Wright may rack up the catches, but Hunter is a deep threat.  He’s more physical than Mike Wallace and only a tad bit slower.  Hunter is a boom/bust dynasty pick, but he has the ability to be the best player in this draft.

Stedman Bailey, WR STL

I’m almost certain he will be underdrafted.  He has lots of strikes against him:

• Played second fiddle to Tavon Austin at West Virginia
• Somehow ended up on the same NFL team as Austin
• Chris Givens is a dynasty darling
• Brian Quick has a cult like following
• Can Sam Bradford play in the NFL?

All good points, but situation changes quickly in the NFL.

Stedman Bailey is one of the more talented receivers in this draft.  He’s a physical player, a deep threat and has acceptable speed.  I could see him dropping pretty far.  I’ve had people comment to me they wouldn’t touch him until the third round.  That’s just crazy.  If you have mid-second and Bailey is there, you just got your Christmas gift months early.

Marcus Lattimore, RB SF

I’ll be interested to see where he goes, but I’m predicting he’ll be underdrafted.  The injury was horrific.  The fact that it’s his second severe knee injury is disturbing.  But, there are so few backs of merit in this draft.  My guess is that some owners will be scared off by him and simply take him off their boards.  If that’s the case, he’s going to fall further than he should.

The sad reality – most of the players drafted in rookie drafts won’t pan out.  Some will bust completely and others will fail to meet expectations (which are very high right now).  If you accept that and embrace it, taking Lattimore becomes easier to do.  We know he has the talent and the heart.  That goes a long way in my book.

As I mentioned earlier, there’s a cliff in the mid-first.  I’d have no problem with someone putting Lattimore in the mix towards the end of the round.  He’s a good kid and was drafted in to a favorable situation.  Plus, in most leagues you’ll get the benefit of putting him on IR and thus be able to roster an extra player while he recovers.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.