The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On April 29, 2013

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) I was just offered the 1.02 rookie pick for Chris Ivory in my 14-team PPR dynasty league. I took the trade, but actually had to think about it for a bit. Was it a good move or not? – AJ in MI

Given that this question was sent to me the day after the draft concluded, I can only infer that your trade partner wasn’t happy with the landing spots of several of the 2013 rookies. Tavon Austin, who was acquired by the receiver-deficient Rams, now appears to be a lock for the overall pick, but several other big names lost value. Two of the top three running backs, Eddie Lacy and Jonathan Franklin, are forced to share the same backfield in the pass-first Green Bay offense. Talented but troubled ball carrier Christine Michael currently sits third on the depth chart in Seattle, and consensus number one tight end Tyler Eifert was snagged by a Bengals offense already boasting a former first round pick in Jermaine Gresham. The notion that rookie picks lose value during the NFL draft appears to have held true this year.

Despite that, there are still several good options at pick 1.02. Second-round picks Montee Ball and Le’Veon Bell should land starting gigs (or timeshares at worst) in Denver and Pittsburgh, respectively. Skilled but raw first-round receiver Cordarrelle Patterson should afford the Vikings a much-needed big-play threat, with Justin Hunter falling to the Titans in a similar fashion.

However, your best option might be the first ball carrier selected, Giovani Bernard. Bernard joins Eifert in Cincinnati, offering a previously non-existent homerun hitter at the running back position. He also showed a receiving prowess in college, averaging 3.7 receptions per game during his time at the University of North Carolina. Assuming Austin indeed goes first, Bernard is a fine fallback option.

Though Ivory is skilled (he has a career average of 5.1 yards per carry), he brings with him several red flags. He’s unproven as a lead back, with only 256 career carries despite three years in the league. He’s also only caught three passes in 24 games, and a robust 26% of his total fantasy points came from touchdowns – a statistic that isn’t necessarily replicable. Finally, Ivory’s no stranger to the injury report, missing multiple games over the course of his career due to knee, foot, shoulder and hamstring ailments. All of this is combined with his trade to the Jets, a veritable dumpster fire of a team that will likely need to abandon the run game early and often as they fall behind on the scoreboard. Suffice it to say, I think you made out quite well.

2.) My ten-team, half-PPR superflex league has a starting requirement of one quarterback, but the offensive position slot allows for a second. We also start two running backs, two receivers and two FLEX positions. My studs are Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Trent Richardson, Brandon Marshall, Randall Cobb and Wes Welker. I made a trade where I received LeSean McCoy and Brandon Weeden in return for Philip Rivers, Eric Decker, Ronnie Hillman, Josh Gordon and the 2014 1.08 pick in the rookie draft. How did I do? – Greg in PA

The most amazing aspect of superflex leagues is how they manage to flip the relative values of quarterbacks. As seen above, players like Philip Rivers and Brandon Weeden, who would be considered mere throw-ins at best (if they were rostered at all), become viable pieces in a trade. In this league in particular, up to twenty signal callers can lay claim to starting spots in any given week.

Given that fact, there are two ways to look at this trade. The first is that you acquired the most valuable asset in the deal, LeSean McCoy. If he maintains his health, he stands to benefit from new coach Chip Kelly’s wide-open offense. Pairing him with Trent Richardson should easily give you the most potent young backfield in your league.

On the other hand, every player you gave up, save for Ronnie Hillman, is starting-caliber in a superflex format. Rivers offers mid-range QB2 value, and despite the addition of Welker to the Broncos, Decker is a FLEX play at worst. I’m particularly high on Gordon, who as a 21-year old one year removed from competitive football, functioned as the Browns’ top receiving threat, and third best rookie pass catcher in PPR formats. The 2014 pick is just the cherry on top.

Overall, I would’ve liked to see you give up one fewer piece, or at least get something better than Weeden back in return. This trade will undoubtedly set you back in terms of depth, be it for bye weeks or injury insurance. However, your main priority should always be to win your league, and your starting lineup just got a lot better. I like it for you.

3.) I’m negotiating for Chris Johnson, and my trade partner wants first and second round rookie picks in 2014. I countered with a first and a third, but is that too high a price to pay? I am running back poor right now, and my overall philosophy is to value draft choices less than proven players. – Bob in IN

Given your team’s positional shortage, as well as your philosophy in regards to valuing draft picks, I like your counter. In fact, I would probably accept the offer as is, if you think it’ll push your team over the top. There are a couple reasons for this.

First, I’m fairly bullish on Johnson’s outlook for 2013 and beyond. Despite a “down year” in 2013, the Titans’ running back still finished as a low-end PPR RB1 in 12-team leagues. He’ll turn 28 during the season, meaning he should still have a few years remaining as a viable fantasy asset.

Moreover, Tennessee noticeably improved during the 2013 off-season. They invested highly on upgrading a porous offensive line, including signing guard Andy Levitre, and spending a first round draft pick on fellow guard Chance Warmack. Quarterback Jake Locker will return healthy, and he has another weapon in rookie receiver Justin Hunter, to pair with sophomore Kendall Wright and a healthy Kenny Britt. The combination of the above should serve to open up a run game that stagnated at times in 2012.

The fact you’re able to make this trade using only 2014 picks is another plus. When trading future picks, the general rule of thumb is, as they can’t be used for over a year, they’re valued as “minus one round” compared to current picks. Therefore, giving up 2014 first and second round picks is the same as giving up second and third round picks in 2013. That’s a more than fair price to pay, and considering it won’t impact your 2013 lineup in a negative manner, it’s a move I’d make.

4.) What are your thoughts on 49ers’ 2012 draft picks AJ Jenkins and LaMichael James? Are the worth stashing? Is Jenkins going to end up like Jonathan Baldwin? – Shaun in the UK

Depending on how many roster spots your league allows, they’re definitely worth stashing. Though neither produced much as rookies, Jenkins and James still represent the first two picks in San Francisco’s 2012 draft. Also, as a standard criterion, anyone drafted highly by offensive mastermind Jim Harbaugh is potentially worth waiting for, regardless of first-year results (cough Colin Kaepernick cough).

With that said, the spotlight is definitely on in 2013. James has a chance to function as starter Frank Gore’s direct backup, as it’s unlikely that fellow ball carrier Kendall Hunter will be back to 100% following Achilles surgery. Though he’s undersized at 5’8” and 195 pounds, he offers elite speed (4.35 seconds in the 40-yard dash) and never had a problem shouldering the load in college.

Similarly, Jenkins is also swimming directly into a sea of opportunity. Behind top receivers Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin there exists a talent vacuum, and a need for a deep threat. Though he was held off the stat sheet in 2012, Jenkins is said to be working hard in the offseason with Kaepernick, and embracing the challenge to improve.

Unfortunately for both players, failing to step up in 2013 isn’t really an option. Within the span of four fourth round picks, San Francisco drafted receiver Quinton Patton, as well as running back Marcus Lattimore. Though slower than Jenkins, Patton has greater size and a much more substantial college resume. Analogously, Lattimore possesses the talent befitting of 2010’s top high school prospect, but catastrophic knee injuries curtailed his college career. He could use 2013 as a pseudo “redshirt” year, and possibly come back with a vengeance in 2014. If Jenkins and James don’t establish themselves by then, this might be a much easier question to answer next year.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.