2013 IDP Rookie Rankings

Steve Wyremski

manti_teo2Editor’s Note: Over the next few weeks, we’re going to be providing rankings galore here at DLF. Many articles (like this one) will be from one of our specialists in either offensive or defensive rankings. Our rankings pages  will be constantly updated to give you the average rankings of multiple writers from Team DLF as well.  One thing we really discourage is the “group think” mentality. Our goal is to provide you lots of different insights and opinions so you can make the most educated picks in your own draft. Good luck and thanks for your support of DLF!

There’s still a lot of uncertainty with how many of these rookie IDPs  will be utilized, but we’ve gotten some insight from beat writers and the coaching staffs’ post-draft comments. Here are my rookie IDP rankings based on what we know currently:

Note: Rankings are based on IDP scoring with a sack-to-tackle ratio of 3:1 or less and “typical” IDP versus offensive scoring formats. Thus, a certain number of the rush linebackers and sack specialists will be ranked lower in this list as compared to big-play leagues. The round rankings also assume a 12-team league.

Take the target timing with a grain of salt as it’s highly dependent on the relative offensive / defensive scoring. These are to be used as more of a guideline.

1. Arthur Brown, ILB, Ravens

Brown wasn’t the first inside or middle linebacker drafted, but he landed in a prime situation. The Kansas State alum comes from a conservative defense that didn’t exactly showcase his explosive nature. With little competition in Baltimore, Brown should start immediately in 2013 and present IDP owners with an immediate impact player.

Target: Early to Mid 2nd Round

2. Alec Ogletree, WLB, Rams

Ogletree is a perfect weakside linebacker to accompany James Laurinaitis. Ogletree slide in the draft mainly due to his off the field concerns. That shouldn’t be a concern as Coach Jeff Fisher has shown he’s able to handle these types of players perfectly (see Janoris Jenkins in 2012). The important consideration here is that Olgetree would have been a favorite to be drafted in the top ten had it not been for his off the field red flags. He’s an aggressive linebacker who possesses tremendous speed. Expect Ogltree to grow into an every down linebacker role at some point in 2013 swipe the role from Jo-Lonn Dunbar.

Target: Mid 2nd Round

3. Dion Jordan, DE, Dolphins

Many are already pegging Jordan as a guy who will play opposite to Cameron Wake. While that’s true, don’t forget that Jordan played most of his snaps in a two-point stance at Oregon. He has tremendous speed and excels in pass coverage. When asked directly, Coach Joe Philbin was non-committal on whether Jordan will play snaps at linebacker. What he did say, though, is that they expect to see how much weight Jordan can handle on his frame without limiting his versatility. Reading between the lines a bit and knowing how he was used at Oregon, I’d expect a lot of hybrid activity from Jordan with the Dolphins. That’s significant for IDP purposes if he keeps the defensive end classification. With that, Jordan could prove to be extremely valuable if he plays snaps as a linebacker as his tackle opportunities would increase compared to other defensive ends.

Target: Late 2nd – Early 3rd Round

4. Kiko Alonso, ILB, Bills

Kelvin Sheppard may suffer the largest consequence as a result of the Bills’ selection of the former Oregon Duck. Alonso is known for his aggressiveness and pass coverage ability, while that’s exactly where Sheppard has struggled. Nigel Bradham is a lot more athletic than Sheppard as well, so expect Sheppard to start losing snaps in 2013 under the new Bills’ regime. Beginning this offseason, Alsonso will compete for a starting inside spot. He should win one given his versatility, which would make him a top rookie linebacker option. Given that the Bills are likely to continue to struggle to win, expect tackle opportunities to be plentiful in Buffalo. Alonso will be a direct benefactor.

Target: Early 3rd Round

5. Sio Moore, WLB/SLB, Raiders

Much like Mychal Kendricks last year, it’s unclear what role Moore will play as he’s versatile enough to play any linebacker spot. Given his skills, like Kendricks, Moore exhibits the abilities of a prototypical weakside linebacker. The Raiders added Kevin Burnett within the last few months, which complicates things, but the veteran has experience playing the strongside linebacker spot. Because of that, it makes sense for Burnett to slide to the strongside with the addition of Moore. Kaluka Maiava was also added to the Raiders over the past few months, as well, but it appears he’ll play more of a depth role now with the addition of rookie linebacker.

While he’s not particularly speedy, Moore has the explosiveness and pass coverage ability to ultimately play every down for the Raiders. That was clear in the rookie ratio analysis we posted a few weeks ago where Moore was one of the top performers to keep an eye on. That bodes well given its predictive history. If he plays the strongside, it’ll limit his IDP upside until that changes, but given his talent and the overall situation, he’s a top option in this draft class.

Target: Early 3rd Round

6. Manti Te’o, ILB, Chargers

Te’o will fit nicely in the Chargers’ 3-4 scheme as an inside linebacker. He’ll slide into the starting spot next to Donald Butler that was vacated by Takeo Spikes earlier this offseason. The Chargers’ selection will likely serve to increase Te’o’s perceived value, but I still have concerns about his ability to shed blocks and finish his tackles as was exhibited clearly in the National Championship game. Even the game aside, he struggled mightily at the Combine further highlighting a lack of explosiveness. As a result, there is some reluctance to project Te’o as a surefire potential every down linebacker. So, in short, the landing spot is ideal, but there are some serious concerns about his ability to excel and stick as a productive IDP option.

Target: Early 3rd Round

7. Ziggy Ansah, DE, Lions

Ansah has exactly what you want in a young defensive end. He’s a raw athletic end that steps into a starting opportunity with the Lions in 2013 as a rookie. Ansah didn’t start playing football until 2010, which is incredible for a guy who was just drafted as the fifth overall pick in the 2013 draft. Due to the lack of experience, Ansah is the definition of boom/bust. If you’re looking for a guy who could explode like Jason-Pierre Paul, Ziggy is your guy.

Target: Early – Mid 3rd Round

8. Kenny Vaccaro, SS/FS, Saints

Vaccaro can play either safety position with ability in run support and coverage. That’s most evident when you see he played at the line of scrimmage as a nickel corner in several formations  at Texas. Coach Sean Payton confirmed that the competition for the two safety positions will be open beginning this offseason. Vaccaro appears to be the successor to Roman Harper at the strong safety spot. After it was speculated earlier this offseason that Harper would be a release candidate, Vaccaro may be in for more snaps than expected in 2013.

Target: Early – Mid 3rd Round

9. Khaseem Greene, SLB, Bears

While many are singing the praises of Jon Bostic as the replacement for Brian Urlacher, Greene may ultimately find himself in that role given his  coverage ability. The former Rutgers linebacker has the speed and career history as a safety to be an every down linebacker. While he should get to compete with James Anderson for the strongside spot, he could also be the eventual replacement for Lance Briggs or, as mentioned, Urlacher in the middle.

Target: Mid 3rd Round

10. Kevin Minter, ILB, Cardinals

Here is another perfect situation for a rookie linebacker, however, in this case Minter may struggle to get on the field in subpackages. While Coach Bruce Arians already confirmed that Minter will compete for a starting spot, with Daryl Washington, Sam Acho, and O’Brien Schofield already playing every down, it’s likely that Minter struggles to steal snaps from the other young backers. As a result of that and the fact that his pass coverage has been criticized, he may be relegated to a two-down role. This limits his long-term upside.

Target: Mid 3rd Round

11. Matt Elam, SS, Ravens

Elam will fill the Ravens’ void at strong safety left by the release of Bernard Pollard a few months ago. He fits the Ravens attitude perfectly as a violent tackler who plays aggressively. Expect Elam to be up in the box much like Pollard was on his way to successful IDP seasons beginning in 2013.

Target: Mid – Late 3rd Round

12. Margus Hunt, DE, Bengals

Predraft, I had Hunt pegged for a 3-4 base scheme given how he was utilized at SMU. That assumption pushed him down in my pre-draft rankings. After listening to Coach Marvin Lewis post-draft press conference, it appears he has different plans and expects to utilize Hunt’s athletic ability as a defensive end in the Bengals’ 4-3 defense. He compared Hunt to Michael Johnson who also had all of the measureables out of college, but needed some time to develop.

Like  Ansah, Hunt hasn’t played football for a significant period of time. He only has four years of football experience, so he still has growth ahead. If Hunt’s blocked field goals and his Combine performance are any indication, he has the potential to excel. I expect Hunt to continue to climb up my rankings throughout the offseason if he continues to exhibit this athletic ability and it begins to translate in camp and the preseason.

Target: Mid – Late 3rd Round

13. Nico Johnson, ILB, Chiefs

With no talent next to Derrick Johnson inside on the Chiefs’ roster, Johnson should immediately see opportunities for snaps. In addition, he shouldn’t have a problem beating out Zac Diles or Akeem Jordan who are marginal talents. Having played in a 3-4 scheme at Alabama, Johnson is in an ideal situation with the Chiefs. He won’t be talked about with the top linebackers in this class, but given the situation, he should be.

Target: Late 3rd Round

14. Barkevious Mingo, OLB, Browns

Ray Horton. Aldon Smith. Enough said.

Mingo is a physical freak who Horton will use much like Aldon Smith is used with the 49ers. Because of that, Mingo gets a slight bump over other 3-4 outside linebackers. The bust risk is there with Mingo and the workout warrior concerns hold merit, but his upside is hard to ignore.

Target: Late 3rd Round

15. Damontre Moore, DE, Giants

Giants’ GM Jerry Reese loves his defensive lineman with upside. Moore still needs to develop, but given the Giants’ success on that front, he’ll be a popular stash. The Giants will fix any speculated preparation issues he has throughout the 2013 season. With Justin Tuck aging and fading, Mathias Kiwanuka, Moore, and Jason Pierre-Paul should make a nice defensive end rotation for the Giants prospectively.

Target: Late 3rd Round

16. Datone Jones, DE, Packers

Jones’ upside may be limited by the 3-4 scheme, but he’s a physical specimen. His quickness off the line of scrimmage enables him to get to the quarterback in most situations. His athleticism as a former basketball player in combination with his size makes him a perfect 3-4 defensive end who may be one of the few 3-4 defensive lineman who are consistent capable IDP options like JJ Watt or Calais Campbell.

Target: Late 3rd – Early 4th Round

17. John Cyprien, SS, Jaguars

Cyprien should start immediately for the Jags given their shallow depth at safety. He has range in coverage and received praise as one of the best run support safeties in this year’s class. He’ll certainly be in run support a lot in 2013 as the Jags continue to play from behind in the short-term. Given the propensity for a high volume of tackle opportunities as a member of the Jaguars and his run support ability, Cyprien is a top rookie safety option for IDP purposes this year.

Target: Late 3rd Round – Early 4th Round

18. Eric Reid, FS, 49ers

Reid is another rookie who is likely to slide into a starting spot in 2013. As a free safety in the 49ers scheme with stellar linebackers, his tackle opportunities may capped, but that may also be partially offset by the fact that teams will be throwing a bit in playing from behind. Realistically, he’s probably limited to a mid-range second safety at best.

Target: Early 4th Round

19. Jarvis Jones, OLB, Steelers

He’ll immediately compete with Jason Worilds for the spot vacated by James Harrison and he should win the job. The spinal stenosis is a long-term medical concern, but this guy can get to the quarterback. In big-play leagues, he’s obviously a better pick. The 3-4 base scheme in Pittsburgh will limit his tackle opportunities with sacks driving his value. With the inconsistent tackle opportunities in the 3-4 base defense, Jones’ IDP value takes a hit.

Target: Early 4th Round

20. Tank Carradine, DE, 49ers

There was some speculation that Tank would play outside linebacker after he was drafted, but post-draft GM Trent Baalke confirmed that he’ll play with his hand in the dirt. Tank has knee injury issues which is why he slide to the second round. He needs to add some weight and the 49ers expect him to be around 290-300 pounds ultimately, but he’ll immediately be a situational pass-rusher at least. Carradine has significant upside  should he remain healthy. He could be a fantastic replacement or complement to Justin Smith.

Target: Early 4th Round

21. Jon Bostic, ILB, Bears

With many speculating he’s the successor to Brian Urlacher, Bears’ GM Phil Emery won’t commit to Bostic as a middle linebacker. Emery noted in a post-draft press conference that Bostic can play any of the three linebacker positions. While Bostic has extensive experience as a middle linebacker for the Gators calling plays and leading the defensive group, he lacks explosiveness and there isn’t an entirely clear path to snaps in the near-term, as well as due to the presence of Greene.

Target: Early – Mid 4th Round

22. TJ McDonald, FS, Rams

While he’s a hard hitter, McDonald needs to improve his tackling technique to be a reliable IDP option, but he should see an opportunity with the Rams immediately. The best thing about McDonald is that he can support the run (despite the inconsistent tackling) and defend the pass (despite being overaggressive at times). If those two aspects can be improved through coaching, IDPers could have a very viable safety option long-term. Initially, he may be a bit inconsistent despite being presented with the snaps.

Target: Mid 4th Round

23. Gerald Hodges, WLB, Vikings

Hodges should get a shot at the open weakside linebacker spot assuming Erin Henderson takes the middle linebacker spot. Hodges is another former safety with coverage ability, which makes him a prime candidate for an every down role.

Target: Mid 4th Round

24. Sharrif Floyd, DT, Vikings

You have to love a guy who slides in the draft and will play with a chip on his shoulder because of it. Floyd is situated to learn from fellow defensive tackle Kevin Williams in his rookie year. Soon after, he should assume the majority of snaps as a 4-3 defensive tackle. With the ability to play the run and get to the quarterback, he’s an ideal IDP defensive tackle option. The one thing to be aware of is that his college production from a sack perspective isn’t there. So, while he’s exhibited the ability and natural skills, it hasn’t come together on the field just yet with 4.5 in his career. That’s obviously a risk to be aware of.

Target: Mid – Late 4th Round

25. Sheldon Richardson, DE/DT, Jets

Seemingly, the Jets are going to play a lot more 4-3 packages or four-man fronts since Richardson isn’t big enough to play nose tackle. Initially, it appeared that the Jets added another 3-4 defensive end to work as part of a three-man rotation with Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples. One alternative was that Coples would stand up outside going forward, which doesn’t seem to play to Coples’ ability. It appears, however, that with the lack of an outside pass-rusher, the Jets will either run more four-man fronts to generate a pass-rush or push Wilkerson inside with Richardson and Coples as book-ends. That will mean the three first round defensive linemen will all be on the field at the same time. The key thing to watch will be where Richardson is classified in your league. If he’s classified as a DT and plays some DE snaps and rotates depending on the package, he could possess some sneaky value given his versatility. If he’s a defensive end, this value should be about right, so keep an eye on this situation.

Target: Mid – Late 4th round

26. Jordan Hill, DT, Seahawks

With Alan Branch gone, the Seahawks needed to address defensive tackle. To do that, they drafted Hill (and then Jesse Williams). Hill could start immediately given his ability to both rush the passer and support the run. Coach Pete Carroll already confirmed that Hill will at least be included in the defensive line rotation from the start. Apparently, the Seahawks drafted Hill given his ability to pressure the quarterback, so that’s something to take note of in defensive tackle required leagues since it may be indicative of how they’ll use him.

th Round

27. Xavier Rhodes, CB, Vikings

Chris Cook’sdays may be numbered with the drafting of Rhodes. The Vikings’ 2012 rookie corner Josh Robinson is already set on the other sides, so Cook appears to be the guy on the hot seat. Rhodes is a physical corner who should accumulate tackles long-term, so expect him to unseat Cook at some point in 2013.

Target: Late 4th Round

28. Robert Alford, CB, Falcons

Target: Late 4th Round

29. JJ Wilcox, SS/FS, Cowboys

Wicox changed positions from wide receiver to safety only a year ago. As a result, he’s someone with long-term upside. Wilcox is know to be a smart player, athletic, and a capable tackler whose shown the ability to play in the box when needed. He needs to improve a bit in coverage, but he should compete immediately for playing time in Dallas given the lack of talent and depth at the position from within the roster.

Target: Early 5th Round

30. Star Lotulelei, DT, Panthers

Star will immediately see a majority of snaps at the defensive tackle position as he immediately fortifies the Panthers’ defensive line. With Greg Hardy, Charles Johnson, and fellow rookie  Kawann Short, the group will have offensive lines questioning who to double team. That should mean some one-on-one opportunities for Lotulelei, which may ultimately help his sack numbers despite not being known as a pass-rusher. He’s unlikely to be a dominant sack guy given his style of play, but he should produce an adequate number of tackles in run support. Ultimately, this is probably a bigger lift and impact to Luke Keuchly’s IDP value since Star will occupy a number of bodies on any given snap.

Target: Early 5th round

31. Malliciah Goodman, DE, Falcons

Currently, Kroy Biermann and Osi Umenyiora are the Falcons’ starting defensive ends and there is little talent behind them. As a result, defensive end was a big need for the Falcons. Goodman will be a rotational guy at best initially, but he possesses a tremendous wingspan and is an ideal size for a 4-3 defensive end. Look for him as a stash with the aging Osi clogging one of the Falcons’ starting spots.

Target: Mid 5th Round

32. Quanterus Smith, DE, Broncos

With the loss of Elvis Dumervil, the Broncos desperately needed pass rushers. That’s exactly what they get with Smith who should immediately play a role in pass rushing situations. He’s still recovering from an ACL injury, which resulted in a slight slide in the draft, but he possesses significant pass rushing ability. He should be a popular defensive end target given his long-term potential.

Target: Mid 5th Round

33. Jamie Collins, OLB, Patriots

Collins is extremely explosive, but given the capable talent currently on the roster, he’s likely to only be a situational pass-rusher in 2013. The more realistic play is to look post-2013 where he may be a long-term option on the strongside with Brandon Spikes scheduled to be a free agent in 2014. If Spikes leaves, that would mean Dont’a Hightower moves to the middle and Collins could assume the strongside spot. He’s a wait-and-see option.

Target: Mid – Late 5th Round

34. Shawn Williams, SS, Bengals

The Bengals’ strong safety position is riddled with marginal talent. That leaves Williams with a perfect opportunity to come in and grab a starting spot. While he’s not terribly strong in coverage, he’s strong enough to beat out Taylor Mays, Jeromy Miles, and George Iloka and aggressive enough to be a decent safety option.

Target: Late 5th Round

35. Zaviar Gooden, OLB, Titans

Gooden is a fast explosive athletic linebacker, however, the Titans are pretty jammed at linebacker with three young guys in Zach Brown, Colin McCarthy, and Akeem Ayers. Maybe the Titans are concerned with McCarthy ‘s injury from last year? Outside of that, it’s difficult to figure out where Gooden fits in the mix given all three were high recent draft picks. He may be more of a depth addition than anything.

Target:  Late 5th Round

36. Jonathan Banks, CB, TB

Banks is a physical corner who is also known to be a playmaker. He’s a potential long-term corner option in corner required leagues.

Target:  Late 5th Round – Early 6th Round

37. Bjoern Werner, OLB, Colts

If he went to a 4-3 scheme to play defensive end, he’d be much more valuable. According to Coach Chuck Pagano, Werner will play outside linebacker. That’s a big hit to his value and he becomes a significant risk given that he played with his hand in the dirt at Florida State. He’s a pass rusher as exhibited by his sack accumulation, but who knows how it’ll translate at the OLB position in the NFL. The match as an outside linebacker is concerning given the lack of history in the scheme at that position.

>Target: Late 5th Round – Early 6th Round

38. Sam Montgomery, OLB, Texans

Yet another 3-4 outside linebacker who has limited value due to the scheme. The biggest impact of this selection may be that as a result of the Texans drafting both Montgomery and Trevardo Williams, Brooks Reed may be moved to inside linebacker. Coach Gary Kubiak has dispelled that notion, but it’s not a dead option yet. As for Montgomery, he’s a pass rushing specialist who will have limited IDP value and worth a spot start depending on the matchup.

Target: Early 6th Round

39. DJ Hayden, CB, Raiders

The only concern with Hayden is when he can get back on the field after his near death experience. As a result, he’s a risk. Not only that, but he may be too good in coverage to be a long-term viable cornerback option.

Target: Late 6th Round

40. Desmond Trufant, CB, Falcons

Not a great tackler but, like Alford, could be a prime candidate for the rookie corner rule as he’s likely to be targeted frequently. However, due to his coverage ability, he’s not a viable long-term option.

Target: Late 6th Round

41. Dee Milliner, CB, Jets

Like the two prior guys, Milliner is too much of a coverage guy to be a viable fantasy option long-term. He’s just a solid option for 2013 given the rookie corner rule.

<Target:  Early 7th Round

42. Sylvester Williams, DT, Broncos

The Broncos needed a young defensive tackle to replace and improve on the play of Kevin Vickerson and Terrance Knighton. To give a frame of reference, GM John Elway compared Williams to Trevor Prye in his post-draft press conference. Pryce approached close to double digit sacks across several seasons and was a disruptive force throughout his career, so that’s a generous comparison. With Williams, the Broncos have a massive body who has the ability to get in the backfield and create havoc. He’s known for his swim move, but his work ethic has been questioned at times. Expect Williams to be on the field frequently from the start of the 2013 season.

Target: Early 7th round

43. Shamarko Thomas, SS, Steelers

Thomas is extremely physical and fits the Steelers defensive mentality perfectly. He’s also in a prime position to succeed Troy Polamalu at strong safety. Given Polamalu’s recent injury history, that may be sooner than expected. In a nutshell, Thomas is a linebacker who plays safety and, therefore, is worth a look at this point in the draft.

Target: Mid 7th Round

44. DJ Swearinger, SS, Texans

With Ed Reed and Daniel Manning entrenched as starters, don’t expect to see Swearinger with significant snaps in 2013. Reed is obviously on his last legs given his recent injury history, but it’s doubtful he’ll be unseated after signing with the Texans this offseason. Swearinger is known to be a hard hitting aggressive player. If ultimately given the opportunity, he could be a very capable productive option at safety.

Target: Mid 7th Round

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