2013 NFL Draft: Day Three Review

Jeff Haverlack

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Looking at rounds four through seven, there was some noteworthy talent available as things got under way.  If nothing else, it was entertaining.  Once again, I am focusing on offensive skill position impact as we’ll be covering IDP individuals in the days to come.

Round Four

98.  Philadelphia – Matt Barkley, QB

A curious pick for new head coach Chip Kelly.  Barkley doesn’t represent Kelly’s style of quarterback, but he’s no doubt familiar with him after seeing him twice a year over the past two years.  Barkley lands in a great situation to acclimate to the speed of the NFL game while waiting for Michael Vick to play through his remaining nine lives.  He doesn’t have great arm strength, but Kelly’s system necessitates quick distribution of the ball and Barkley’s intelligence is noteworthy.  It’ll be a battle between Nick Foles and Matt Barkley for the QB2 role unless Philly decides that it’s time to move Foles.

101.  Jacksonville – Ace Sanders, WR

At 5’7″, Sanders will fight for a slot role on a team accumulating young receivers.  He’s not overly quick (4.58) for his size, but he is experienced in the return game.  He’s a long shot in fantasy.

102.  New England – Josh Boyce, WR

I love the pick here by Belichick as he gets another unheralded playmaker.  Boyce has a little Percy Harvin in him and is a blazer (4.38)  at 5’11” and 206 lbs.  He’s also extremely muscular and an accomplished blocker.  He’ll no doubt slide in behind Danny Amendola to learn the slot role as he doesn’t project to the outside.

106.  Miami – Dion Sims, TE

Big hands, big body and accomplished in-line blocker.  Doesn’t bring much, if any, fantasy value.

110.  New York Giants – Ryan Nassib, QB

Great value for Tom Coughlin as he gets Eli Manning’s potential eventual replacement.  He has a live arm and was projected to be selected perhaps as high as pick number eight in the first round to Buffalo and he’s simply a great fit for what the Giants do.  Fantasy-wise, it’s not a great situation for Nassib and he’ll likely now fall to the fourth round in rookie drafts as fantasy coaches aren’t patient when it comes to third tier quarterbacks.

112.  Oakland – Tyler Wilson, QB

I prefer Tyler Bray here for quarterback talent, but understand Oakland’s reasoning as he had a noteworthy 2011 season.  Many changes followed at Arkansas and Wilson had a down 2012.  His upside is well above the 112th selection as long as his confidence remains following a sub-par 2012.

115.  Pittsburgh – Landry Jones, QB

He has prototypical size and a good arm, but just doesn’t have the presence to stay in the pocket and remain poised.  He’ll get plenty of time to grow into a NFL quarterback and my feeling is he will eventually get a chance to start somewhere.

123.  Seattle – Chris Harper, WR

A decent athlete who is good in most areas, but doesn’t shine in any specific one.  He’s a big receiver who uses his size to his advantage, especially off the line of scrimmage and in shielding for a reception.  He’s got good acceleration and can surprise with his speed on occasion.  He’s likely to be a very late fantasy rookie selection due to Seattle’s deepening receiver depth chart.

125.  Green Bay – Jonathan Franklin, RB

In just a couple of rounds, the Packers have completely replaced and upgraded their backfield.  After Adding Eddie Lacy in the second, the Pack return in the fourth round to nab Franklin, who is my third ranked running back overall.  It’s a fantastic value pick by the Packers and he’s a perfect complement to Lacy.  This pick will reduce at least some of Lacy’s value as Franklin is capable and shifty, but this is more of a blow to his own value.  He’ll likely fall from a high first round rookie selection to the middle of the second round.

128.  San Francisco – Quinton Patton, WR

Patton is a bit of an enigma at receiver, flashing great ability at times, followed by inconsistency.  He’s hard to project highly as a fantasy productive talent, but he runs good routes and is a hard worker.

131.  San Francisco – Marcus Lattimore, RB

The top running back prior to injury, Lattimore falls to a good situation and is drafted right around the time we expected.  Frank Gore is aging, Kendall Hunter is far from a sure thing and Lattimore will have the ability to work hard for a full year without the expectation of seeing game time in 2013.  He’s impossible not to root for and there’s no questioning the young man’s heart.  If completely healthy, even given an earlier ACL tear, he’s an easy first round selection in the NFL Draft   Now, expectations are all over the board.  He’s been selected late in the first round or early in the second round in pre-draft rookie mocks and my feeling is that he’ll be a bottom-first round selection given San Francisco’s attractive situation.

133.  Atlanta – Levine Toilolo, TE

Fantasy leaguers are likely to overdraft Toilolo due to his situation in Atlanta.  He’s a very big receiver at 6’8″ and can use his size effectively.  As a blocker, he suffers from lack of leverage and inconsistency, not uncommon for large tight ends.  He’s best as a receiving threat, but won’t make anyone forget about Tony Gonzalez due to his slower speed and somewhat stiff style.

Round Five

135.  Jacksonville – Denard Robinson, WR

Quarterback conversions don’t often turn out well and I expect that will be the case for Robinson.  He’s a likable individual and the Jaguars do need playmakers, so there’s always a chance he could carve out a roll.

140.  Arizona – Stepfan Taylor, RB

A good all-around running back with disappointing long speed, Taylor handles himself well in most situations.  He’s a jack-of-all-trades type of player who fits well in Arizona.  He doesn’t project well in fantasy due to his lack of a clear role and a selection of Taylor will require an extreme degree of patience and prayer.  He has a great heart, is capable in between the tackles and catches the ball naturally.

144.  New Orleans – Kenny Stills, WR

Stills doesn’t play as fast as his timed speed (4.38), but shows capable hands, good agility and a reasonable good receiver IQ.  Any receiver receiving passes from Drew Brees receives an upgrade and he’ll join many other young receivers on the depth chart vying for snaps.

151.  Dallas – Joseph Randle, RB

I’ve been saying all along that Randle reminds me a lot of DeMarco Murray and it seems the Cowboys share that belief as well.  I’m not a Murray fan and I’m even less of a Randle fan.  He runs high, isn’t overly physical and doesn’t use his size to churn out yardage.  He’s capable in the passing game and does have enough speed in the open field to be dangerous.  I don’t see the dynamic that will separate him from other running backs that become difference makers.  He’ll compete for the RB3 role in year one.

158.  Seattle – Luke Wilson, TE

He’s quick for a long tight end, but will go undrafted in fantasy.

154.  Washington – Chris Thompson, RB

Likely to be a specialist at the next level.  After sustaining a multiple vertebrae fracture it appeared that his football career would come to an end.  He’s extremely raw and will likely end up being a hard working smaller back who will struggle to find anything other than a specialist role in the Redskins backfield.

160.  St. Louis – Zac Stacy, RB

Stacy is an intriguing back in the mold of Maurice Jones-Drew.  A thick 216 lbs. at 5’8″, and extremely strong, Stacy will be the big back the Rams were seeking after Steven Jackson moved to Atlanta.  He’ll compete immediately for snaps and will be drafted highly in fantasy considering his fifth round selection.  Best of all about Stacy, he’s a fantastic leader and character individual and it’s easy to project him eventually getting an opportunity in the lead role at running back.  He’s not as agile as is MJD, but his 4.55 speed when combined with his size and good-enough hips can provide for every down ability.

161.  Denver – Tavarres King, WR

A thin receiver with speed and good agility, King looks to be a slot receiver in the making due to size and displayed skill set.  Playing with Peyton Manning could provide some near-term upside should newly acquired Wes Welker miss time, but King will have his hands full making the active roster.

164.  Miami – Mike Gillislee, RB

The under the radar Gillislee has a chance to be a nice sleeper in fantasy.  He has good size at nearly 210 lbs., is quick enough to get to the corner or maintain space at the second level, but isn’t overly elusive or agile.  He’s like many backs in this year’s class who have ability, but aren’t elite in any one category.  His situation is a good one playing behind two largely unproven young backs in Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas.  He could be a low second round selection, especially to those already owing Miller.

Round 6

171.  Detroit – Corey Fuller, WR

A quicker than fast receiver buried on Detroit’s receiver depth chart.  He’ll fight for the opportunity to stick at the bottom or on the practice squad

172.  Oakland – Nike Kasa, TE

Primarily a blocking option with a limited receiving skill-set.  Won’t register in fantasy.

174.  Arizona – Ryan Swope, WR

Great pick for the birds here.  Swope should be an immediate threat in the slot between bigger receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd.  Andre Roberts is still in the mix as well but Swopes’ true slot receiver body of work, combined with his route intelligence should pay dividends from day one.  He ran a 4.34 forty which was a huge surprise to me as he doesn’t flash that speed often on tape.  He gets into and out of routes quicklyand has the receiver IQ to be a valuable outlet for his quarterback.  He could come off the board late in the late second round in fantasy but I think he’ll slip to the third.

181.  Oakland – Latavius Murray, RB

At 6’2″ and 223 pounds, Murray has lumbering 4.40 speed that doesn’t show on tape in most situations.  What I do see is a nice back with good pad level and fluidity for his size.  He’s a load below the body and displays good balance and drive.  Primarily a one-cut runner, Murray does show some lateral agility and patience.  He’s relatively unknown but looks a lot like Darren McFadden so it’s easy to see what the Raiders are trying to accomplish with the pick.

182.  Carolina – Kenjon Barner, RB

Fantasy coaches love the Carolina running game.  I’m mustering as much sarcasm as I can with the written word.  Barner isn’t the timed speedster that his game tape would suggest.  He’s got superior lateral agility but often seems to be moving  quicker than his body control allows.  While he has the ability to run tougher than expected for his size, he seeks daylight by bouncing outside far too often.  In the open field he’s dangerous and it’s an unknown how the Panthers will utilize yet another running back in their system.

184.  Oakland – Mychal Rivera, TE

The Raiders are putting together a nice sixth round with the selection of Rivera, a quality receiving tight end from Tennessee.  He’s athletic, a bit heavy footed and won’t add much in the run game as a blocker, but he has field instincts and enough speed to be productive.  Huge hands. Rivera does have starting potential given time.

186.  Pittsburgh – Justin Brown, WR

Very raw receiver that projects as a deep depth chart player.

187.  Arizona – Andre Ellington, RB

His value was all over the board and ultimately he slides a long way before hearing his name called.  His timed speed was disappointing and the Cardinals now have a growing stable of running backs, but Ellington has long term potential.  He plays faster than his Combine numbers would indicate and his fit in Arizona is a good one.  He’ll bring a dynamic that Rashard Mendenhall and Stepfan Taylor cannot which may provide an earlier opportunity than would be normally expected.  Ellington’s receiving abilities are limited so he’ll need development and time in that area.

189.  Tampa Bay – Mike James, RB

Has good size and reminds me a bit of a young Michael Turner.  Somewhat one-dimensional as a runner and won’t get many opportunities in Tampa Bay.  He’ll go undrafted in fantasy.

190.  Cincinnati – Rex Burkhead, RB

A workout warrior at the Combine, he shined in every drill except the forty.  The Bengals get an underrated and versatile back for depth.  He doesn’t project as a starter  but could surprise.  He reminds me of a slightly less agile and former Nebraska back, Brandon Jackson.

194.  Seattle – Spencer Ware, RB

A curious draft by Seattle, loading up on young running backs behind their two notable players, Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin.  He’s a downhill runner of the single dimension variety.

195.  Houston – Alan Bonner, WR

Special teams returner in all likelihood.  Doesn’t project well as a starting caliber receiver.

197.  Cincinnati – Cobi Hamilton, WR

Another good, young, receiver for the Bengals in the mold of Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones.  He’s a long striding player without a lot of route-tree versatility but he’s got a NFL body to provide a chance.

199.  Detroit – Theo Riddick, RB

He’s a space player that didn’t time out in speed as quickly as he shows on tape.  He doesn’t have the bulk or the build below the waist to suggest a significant workload  in the NFL, but in the shadow of Reggie Bush, his abilities could be magnified as he learns how to use his skills.

201.  Houston – Ryan Griffin, TE

Extremely raw red-zone tight end due to size.  Won’t factor in fantasy.

Round Seven

Only highlighting players of note as we close out the last round of the draft.  Quality players began getting extremely thin in the middle of round six and fantasy productivity rarely comes from players drafted this late.  However, a few noteworthy picks did occur:

216.  Green Bay – Charles Johnson, WR

A nice get for the Packers here.  An unheralded player from Grand Valley St., Johnson has sure hands and sub 4.40 speed at 6’2″/215 lbs.  He’s raw but extremely athletic and will have nice upside in the Packers’ high-octane offense.

221.  San Diego – Brad Sorenen, QB

A tall, upright passer with good size.  A Mormon mission early in his career means he’s an older player.  He’ll need a lot of work and may just be a camp body, but we’re watching the backup situation in San Diego.

222.  Buffalo – Chris Gragg, TE

He’s got great straight line speed for his position and looks more like a receiver than he does a tight end.  Not ultra-flexible and is certain to be a receiving-only threat.  Opportunity and work-ethic will determine if he’s able to able crack the starting lineup in the future.

228.  Washington – Jawan Jamison, RB

Small back with good weight.  Notable selection by the Redskins as Mike Shanahan knows how to select young running backs.  He’s not projected as anything other than a change of pace back in a large stable of backs.  This means that he’ll probably open the season as the starter.  Sarcasm generously applied.

234.  Denver – Zac Dysert, QB

Fell further than I thought and he’ll provide competition for backup quarterback Brock Osweiler.  He’s got starter’s intangibles and needs development.  His best opportunity will likely come in his second contract if he’s able to create any buzz.

235.  Chicago – Marquess Wilson, WR

He’s got big character issues but also great upside.  He’s very athletic, has very good height as well as a receiver’s mind set.  If he matures, he’s a player to watch in Chicago.

238.  Baltimore – Aaron Mellette, WR

May be my favorite drafted sleeper this year.  Love his drafted situation to a team needing young talent.  He’ll have an uphill battle but he’s got the work ethic and size to provide some level of momentum in camp.

 

jeff haverlack