Final Pre-Draft Rookie Mock Draft: Round Three
The NFL Draft is rapidly approaching. The pro days are behind us at this point and the rumors are rapidly swirling about with landing places and reports from NFL teams. It is often known as misinformation season.
In order to help you sift through all of the information out there and get a handle on player values, we bring you another one of our staff rookie only mock drafts. This particular draft features three rounds and was conducted two weeks before the NFL Draft begins. At this point, we have most of the information we are going to receive about the players aside from exactly which team they will be playing for come Fall. Obviously landing spot makes a difference, but this is a good pre-draft view.
For this mock draft, we assumed it was a standard scoring PPR league with normal lineup requirements, meaning no IDP, super flex, or two quarterback leagues. Trades were not allowed. Draft order was randomly assigned and each drafter was asked to make a brief comment about why they made the pick they did. I’ll follow up each pick with some brief thoughts of my own. I’m not a draft expert, and like many of you, my rookie analysis is far from complete. I’m just sharing my thoughts so you get two opinions on each pick. In cases of disagreement, I’ll be the first to admit I might be the one who is wrong.
If you want to take a look at previous mock drafts we have done to get a sense of the risers and fallers, here you go:
Pre-combine: Round 1 and Round 2
Post-combine: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3
3.01 – EJ Manuel, QB FSU
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 3.09)
Dan’s thoughts: Wasn’t crazy about taking a QB, but I expect Manuel’s value to shoot up much like his predecessor, Christian Ponder’s did. Running quarterbackss in FFB are a match made in heaven.
My thoughts: I think Manuel’s stock is definitely on the rise. He is the best read-option quarterback in this year’s class, and I expect an NFL team as well as dynasty players to go after him in hopes of capturing a little bit of the Russell Wilson magic. The issue is that Manuel isn’t nearly the passer that players like Wilson, Robert Griffin III, or Colin Kaepernick are and his running ability might be a touch behind as well. For the read option to truly succeed in the NFL, you need a real passer and I’m not sure Manuel fits that bill. With that said, Tim Tebow doesn’t fit the bill either, but he was a top ten fantasy quarterback when he was starting.
3.02 – Stedman Bailey, WR WVU
(Pre-Combine 2.02, Post Combine 2.06)
Mark’s thoughts: In my opinion, Bailey is one of the most underrated players in the draft. Over shadowed by teammate Tavon Austin, he was extremely productive in college. He’s an aggressive player that was an extremely efficient red zone threat despite the lack of prototypical size.
My thoughts: Bailey is feeling the same kind of slide that some of the other receivers are feeling. Talent-wise, he doesn’t belong in the third round. However, people are starting to get more excited about running backs and quarterbacks because they get the attention in fantasy. Bailey has the skill set to be a very good complement in an established passing game. That should put him on the WR3 bubble if he lands in a good spot.
3.03 – Joseph Randle, RB OKLA ST
(Pre-Combine 2.03, Post Combine 3.06)
Eric H’s thoughts: Though he lacks a prototypical running back build, I’m willing to take a chance on Randle in the third round. He was an ultra-productive college back who averaged over five yards per carry during his time at Oklahoma State. Randle’s fast enough and catches just enough passes that I think if he’s placed in the right system, he could exceed expectations.
My thoughts: I’m struggling to shake my impression that Randle is much better suited to be a slot receiver than he is a running back due to his very lean build and good hands. In my mind he is stuck between the two positions which in all likelihood means he won’t end up doing a whole lot in either role. He is definitely worth the flier in the third round, though.
3.04 – Aaron Dobson, WR MARSH
(Pre-Combine 2.10, Post Combine 3.08)
My thoughts: Dobson is a player who is very much under the radar right now, probably because he didn’t participate in the NFL Combine and because he isn’t coming from a big time program. At 6’3” and 211 pounds, Dobson ran a rather impressive 40 yard dash in the low 4.4s at his pro day. Even if you tack on 0.05 or 0.1 because it was a pro day, you’re still talking about a 6’3” receiver that runs a 4.5 or faster. He has good hands and is very explosive off the line. With his size and speed, he should be considered around the middle of the second round in fantasy drafts.
There are some questions when it comes to Dobson, though. He hasn’t quite figured out how to use his big body to its fullest advantage. He takes very big strides which can be an issue in the NFL with press coverage. He’ll also need to get a little bit tougher when fighting for position and going up after jump balls.
3.05 – Matt Barkley, QB USC
(Pre-Combine 2.04, Post Combine 3.11)
Ryan’s thoughts: I think quarterbacks often offer the best value and potential return on investment for late round rookie picks, so I knew I would likely grab a quarterback with my third round pick. I had hoped for riser EJ Manuel, but he was chosen with the first pick of the third round. I don’t love everything about Barkley, but I do think he is being unfairly bashed by many scouts and draft experts. If Barkley lands in a spot with an immediate opportunity to start, he would likely be drafted in the second round of rookie drafts.
My thoughts: Opinions on Barkley are all over the place. Some, like Ryan, think people are being too hard on him while others think he is just overhyped because he played for USC and had two very good receivers catching the ball for him. About the only thing certain is at this time last year, Barkley was a slam dunk to be the first quarterback taken in the 2013 draft and that isn’t the case now. My problem with Barkley is I don’t see much of a chance that he is anything more than an average NFL quarterback – that means his upside is that of a fantasy QB2. It is a safe pick in the third round, but there’s not a ton of upside in my opinion.
3.06 – Travis Kelce, TE CIN
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine Undrafted)
Tim’s thoughts: Very surprised to see him fall to the 30th pick in the draft. Off the field issues will push him down in the NFL Draft, but Kelce has good hands and decent route running ability. He’s a marginal blocker, so he is a ways down on some draft boards for the NFL, but you don’t get points in fantasy for blocking. He’s a boom/bust prospect, but what the heck at 3.06.
My thoughts: This is a swing for the fences kind of pick, which is exactly what I like in the third round. I actually feel his blocking is pretty decent. The issue in his game is that he isn’t the speed tight end we’ve been seeing recently. He’s much more like a Kyle Rudolph in the speed department than a Jared Cook. He also doesn’t run the best of routes. When you toss in the major character issues as well as the injury concerns, you get a nice roll of the dice.
3.07 – Marquess Wilson, WR WSU
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 2.12)
Jarrett’s thoughts: Certainly has off the field red flag issues after leaving the Washington State program, but talent gives him the upside of a good late round pick. Plagued a little by drops, but does attack the football at its highest point, which is always a good thing to look for in wide receiver fliers.
My thoughts: In the late third, you’re going to be taking players who have some kind of issues. Why not roll the dice on someone that seems to have a fair amount of talent? Wilson at least has a chance at doing something in the NFL. His major weaknesses are his strength and ability to adjust to balls that are outside of his frame. He needs to add a fair amount of muscle if he is going to be able to compete with NFL corners. He also needs to work on his hands a bit.
3.08 – Ryan Nassib, QB SYR
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine Undrafted)
Jeff H’s thoughts: I wish he were 6’4” with that release and ball velocity. But as it stands (no pun intended), I like Nassib’s delivery, velocity and I think he’s got intangibles that provide a lot of upside. I won’t be surprised at all to see him gone by 2.10. As a third round rookie pick, I’ll take a quarterback who has a chance to start sooner rather than later. He’s extremely adaptable, is a great leader and has the football IQ you want in your field general. He needs to develop better touch on some of his passes instead of relying on his arm, but that will be part of his growth in the NFL. A little bit of maturity and a tough pocket presence makes Nassib a good bet to out produce his drafted situation in fantasy.
My thoughts: I’m starting to think Nassib has a better chance to be a solid NFL starter than Barkley does. While he is inconsistent and needs to work on several things (such as taking snaps from under center and refining his footwork), he has the mental makeup to be an average starter. Now, average NFL quarterback doesn’t really help you in the world of fantasy aside from during your bye week, but he’s definitely worth a shot.
3.09 – Cierre Wood, RB ND
(Pre-Combine 2.08, Post Combine Undrafted)
Eric O’s thoughts: Admittedly a homer pick to some extent as I have watched Cierre Wood at Notre Dame for years. A 5’11”, 210 pound running back who plays so much faster than he is timed, Wood has some serious fantasy potential. He was used in a committee attack at Notre Dame, but still put up over 1,000 yards and showed explosiveness. San Diego or Dallas would be excellent landing spots for the former Golden Domer. Hopefully he doesn’t go to Minnesota where they appear to be collecting former Irish players. He’d never see the light of day behind all-world mega stud Adrian Peterson.
My thoughts: The only game I actually saw Wood play in was the National Championship, so it might not be completely fair to judge him on that performance. However, when I watched him run, I had a very hard time believing he was 210 pounds and not 195 pounds. He went down on first contact a lot, struggled in pass protection, and didn’t show much power. He had decent agility, but I just didn’t see a whole lot that made me think he has a high quality future in the NFL, but in the late third, everyone is a flier.
3.10 – Kenjon Barner, RB ORE
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 3.04)
Jeff B’s thoughts: His measurables from the combine don’t jump off the page, but his collegiate production certainly does. He averaged at least six yards per carry in each of his four seasons at the University of Oregon and finished with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 23 touchdowns during his Senior year. He’s not built to be every down back, but he is built perfectly to assume a Darren Sproles-like role in a creative offense. At the end of the third round, he presents excellent value based on his PPR capabilities alone. With the recent news that the Eagles traded Dion Lewis to the Browns, might that mean Chip Kelly is clearing a spot for Barner?
My thoughts: I think Jeff might be a touch overly optimistic that Chip Kelly might be carving out a role for his former player. While he could end up on the Eagles, I’m not sure there is room for him in the offense with all of the pieces there. I think he is most likely a return man in the NFL. He’ll need to work on his pass protection as well as route running if he’s going to be a passing down specialist like Sproles.
3.11 – Jordan Reed, TE FLA
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine Undrafted)
Chad’s thoughts: I didn’t know much about Reed until a month ago when I was on the DLF Podcast and Jarrett mentioned Reed being a good fit for my Seattle Seahawks. Afterwards, I did a little research and what I saw got me excited. The fact he played quarterback before being converted shows how versatile this kid can be. His overall college numbers won’t impress you at first glance, but there’s a reason he draws physical comparisons to former Gator Aaron Hernandez. He’s still a work in progress, but the physical skills are there. He’s rising up NFL Draft boards and it won’t be long until he does the same in rookie drafts. He could be an absolute steal if he stays a third round rookie pick.
My thoughts: Reed is a very versatile tight end, but he isn’t a complete one at this point in time. His inline blocking leaves quite a bit to be desired and will take a fair amount of work to get to where it needs to be. Right now, when it comes to his blocking, it isn’t just bad most of the time, he is actually a liability. He also needs to work on his route tree to become less predictable. He was often asked to just run simple routes or to find the soft spot in a zone and sit there – that doesn’t work so well in the NFL. He does look great with the ball in his hands though, so the upside is there.
3.12 – Chris Harper, WR KSU
(Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine Undrafted)
Andy’s thoughts: Harper is a thickly built wide receiver who has amazing hands and can catch anything. He looks like a short, converted tight end more than a wide receiver. He could be one of the best values at his position.
My thoughts: He is strong and quick – a dangerous combination. He also had great hands and runs very crisp routes. The problem is he is still learning the position. He is a converted quarterback and struggles with certain parts of his game. He could definitely surprise people. The question is if he’ll be fantasy relevant or not.
Those appearing in previous mock drafts who missed the cut this time:
Ryan Swope, WR TEXAS A&M (Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 2.10)
Miguel Maysonet, RB STONY BROOK (Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 3.01)
Mike Gillislee, RB FLA (Pre-Combine 2.11, Post Combine 3.07)
Vance McDonald, TE RICE (Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 3.10)
Mark Harrison, WR RUT (Pre-Combine Undrafted, Post Combine 3.12)
Our next rookie only mock draft will be coming to you shortly after the NFL Draft.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
