2013 Rookie Analysis: Wide Receivers

Editor’s Note:  A whole host of you signed up the Annual Premium Content package when it was first unveiled on April 21st of last year. To avoid any interruption in service, just click here to view your Premium account status, see how many days you have remaining on your subscription or renew. When you renew, it simply adds 12 months on to your current annual subscription, so don’t be concerned if you commit early.

Now in the third part of my series, I turn my attention to the deepest position in this year’s rookie class, the wide receivers.

With uninspiring choices at quarterback and running back, luckily the wide receiver position seemingly has some depth to it.  Unlike previous drafts where there are clear selections at the top as elite prospects, 2013’s class has no headlining receivers who are of “must-have” quality.  That is not to say that there isn’t quality within this group.  To wit, this year’s class has a number of well-sized, capable receivers who pass the eye test on many levels.  Ranking the receivers this year is another matter altogether.  There’s something for every arm-chair analyst in this class and you’re going to get my thoughts now.

To sum up my thoughts briefly, let’s just say it’s not going to surprise me if my top three receivers end up being the best receivers to come out of this draft, or if three receivers much lower end up rising to the top.  This class is that disparate in skill set and potential and it’s a great draft for those fantasy coaches sitting outside the top five picks.

Wide Receivers

1.  Cordarrelle Patterson
Tennessee
6’2″/216 Lbs.

Patterson is about as hotly contested as any rookie has been in the past few years.  Whether you’re reading analysis here on DLF or on other sites, you’ll see article after article exclaiming Patterson as too risk for a high pick.  Here’s the thing about Patterson – he is too risky for a very high pick.  But we’re not here talking about risk level as much as we are talking about talent and the rankings within the receiver position.  Fact is, all the receivers in this class are risky for a high selection.  However, if you have a need at the receiver position, after watching as much tape as I could on Patterson in an attempt to decode just who he is as a player, I’ve come to the conclusion that I have to discount all years other than 2012.

After two dominating years at the Junior College level, Patterson started 12 games for Tennessee in 2012, hauling in 46 receptions and a mere five touchdowns.  What does stand out is Patterson’s physicality, better than average ball skills and his dynamic run-after-catch ability.  With experience as a running back in his past, it’s not hard to see those skills emerge once Patterson secures the ball.  His vision is natural as he seeks cutback opportunities and he’s always maximizing  yardage potential.  He uses his body well in traffic, is able to secure the catch in motion as well as any rookie in this year’s draft and his hands appear much bigger than his listed size (9″).  I love the fact he can get vertical with space while selling the fake.

On the downside, Patterson isn’t a natural hands catcher but shows ability.  He sometimes is lazy at the top of routes, especially of the come-back variety as well as outs where angle out of the cut can make the different between a reception and an interception or knock-down. He’s not an elite jumper and doesn’t show a tremendous desire to climb the ladder.  He reminds me a lot of Demaryius Thomas in Denver and with similar raw skills as both Thomas and Stephen Hill.  I think Patterson will struggle in year one, but much like Thomas, can come on strong as he learns how to use his body and physical gifts to his benefit in the NFL.  When it comes down to it, in this receiver class I just don’t see another player worthy enough for the top spot.

[vsw id=”QypUGJch5yk” source=”youtube” width=”425″ height=”344″ autoplay=”no”]

2.  Tavon Austin
West Virginia
5’8″/174 Lbs.

If you’ve followed my analysis of receivers over the years, you understand that having a 5’8″ receiver as my second overall receiver is no small surprise.  I’ve either 1)  Completely lost my mind or 2)  He’s just that good.  I’m happy to say that after watching as much tape as I could find, it’s the latter.  He really is just that good.  The question is will he be that good in the NFL where the space won’t be as plentiful?

I love his second gear.  He’s a master at using speed pacing to set up his moves, his routes and use of space.  With the ball in his hands, he’ll exploit the smallest of seams for a big gain.  In the return game, he’ll be as dangerous as anyone currently in the NFL from day one.  The return game doesn’t take the finesse or experience that does playing receiver, so if you participate in a league that also awards return yardage, Austin will be a dual threat.  In today’s NFL that is further emphasizing the slot receiver in most systems, he’ll be in high demand come draft day and is the odds-on favorite to be the second receiver off the board and before pick #15.

His game isn’t complex.  Offensive coordinators will need to get that ball to him in space and allow his dynamic skill-set to do the rest.  He won’t break many tackles, but he’s not afraid to get his shoulders downhill and take on would-be tacklers to maximize yardage.  He has elite competitiveness which is only eclipsed by elite vision and open-field skill.  But what I like best about Austin, at least when combined with his skill-set, is his quiet and humble demeanor.  He’s not a big talker and he lets his work ethic and instincts take care of business.  I haven’t seen a smaller wide receiver who has excited me as much as Tavon Austin has.  In the right system, he’s going to be ultra-productive as long as he can stay healthy.

[vsw id=”mMqmTrDFg34″ source=”youtube” width=”425″ height=”344″ autoplay=”no”]

3.  Justin Hunter
Tennessee
6’4″/196 Lbs.

Justin Hunter will make you a genius or a chump.  Truth be told, of all receivers in this year’s class, I’m most excited about Hunter’s ceiling.  It’s clear to me he has the highest ceiling in 2013.  Hunter only pulled down 106 receptions in Tennessee, but I see far more potential.  He has great size at 6’4″, he’s long and lean, has open field ability and is a good leaper displaying consistent effort to get to the ball.  He’s fluid and while he’s not overly physical, he’s willing to battle for the reception.  He’ll need to add weight and prove he can get off the line of scrimmage as he’s a rhythm receiver and is susceptible to being knocked off his routes.  He shows capable route running, but tends to stride into his cuts at times rather than chop his feet for a quick break.

He’s a long strider and has the ability to cover space quickly and when he learns how to refine his movement at the top of the route tree, he has the speed and stride to create that space and do damage after the reception.  He shows a good ability at snatching and while I have heard other experts criticize his ability in this area, I stand by my assessment that he’s one of the more natural hands catchers in this draft.  He’ll need to control his drops as he has put more than a few balls on the ground in his time at Tennessee.  He’s not thick in the lower body and won’t break a lot of tackles, but that isn’t his game.  Ultimately, his value in the NFL will be dependent not just on his ability to get deep, but also in learning how to read coverages and be successful across the middle.  Success isn’t guaranteed with Justin Hunter, but his talent is very apparent.

He’s my beast or bust pick for 2013 and I’d be comfortable taking Hunter likely starting at/near rookie draft pick 1.06 depending on skill position availability and his drafted situation.

[vsw id=”M3iTXQyxgdU” source=”youtube” width=”425″ height=”344″ autoplay=”no”]

4.  DeAndre Hopkins
Clemson
6’1″/214 Lbs.

Save the recent news about Hopkins destroying (or perhaps creatively decorating) his hotel room along with a fellow rookie receiver Mark Harrison (Rutgers), the arrow seems to be pointing up for the young receiver.  To be fair to Hopkins, the report suggests he had been out of the room for several hours and may not have been present when the room was, uh, decorated.

At 20 years of age and with great size, Hopkins is a physical specimen who plays as physical as he looks.   He’s got good leg drive off the line of scrimmage, but nimble feet at the top of his breaks.  He can use his strength to create separation and while not overly fast, he displays a level of quickness that is somewhat surprising.  Hopkins possesses large hands (10″) for 6’1″ and does a fine job of extending to the ball at the appropriate time to snatch it away from his frame.  He’s got ability as a blocker, although he seems to be somewhat inconsistent.  In the tape I’ve seen, I question his hands in traffic as he often seems to lose concentration when contact or traffic is near or at the point of reception, especially if he is unable to extend his arms.

I particularly like his emotional and character drive considering his very unfortunate childhood.  He’s overcome a lot to make it to the NFL and he has that chip on his shoulder that, if correctly and appropriately channeled, will serve him well.  He plays angry, but under control and with the physicality I like in receivers.  Many have compared him to Anquan Boldin, but I feel Roddy White is a better comparison.  His top end speed is very questionable and he’s not likely to get deep by speed alone, but he looks crafty enough to use his route tree ability to still catch the occasional deep ball.

“Nuk” has a lot of upside, but just enough mystery such that I can’t rank him higher than my WR4 in this year’s class.

[vsw id=”oTJjRlGOCjk” source=”youtube” width=”425″ height=”344″ autoplay=”no”]

5.  Keenan Allen
California
6’2″/206 Lbs.

A left knee injury kept Allen from participating at the NFL Combine, but he was able to hold a pro day in early April.  He’s not 100% back from the injury as of yet and it affected him in the forty, reported to be in the 4.70s on both runs.  He catches the ball well and is a long strider, which tends to hurt his speed in short area bursting.  He has great size, uses his body well and snatches the ball naturally, but the lingering speed issues may keep teams away and he’s a candidate to fall a bit on draft day.  He’s still projected to be a first round selection, but I won’t be surprised to see him slip into the the first ten picks of the second round.

On tape, he’s a bit more of plodder in his routes than I expected to see.  He seems a little foot heavy on his breaks, but with the ball in his hands, he has a good first step.  Something that scares me (and I haven’t seen this mentioned anywhere else), is the fact that Allen consistently dips his head into contact.  In the NFL, this could result in multiple concussions and possible neck injury if it isn’t resolved.  While many receivers tend to rise with more tape that I watch, I find Allen to be far more hyped by experts without enough substance to be truly excited about.

Sub-par quarterback play certainly played a major role in Allen’s lackluster stat,s but regardless, there’s a dynamic missing I can’t ignore.  On some plays, I see enough field recognition and route tree ability to provide for upside as a fantasy receiver, but on other plays he looks very pedestrian.  You make the call.

[vsw id=”Z700g-sndZ4″ source=”youtube” width=”425″ height=”344″ autoplay=”no”]

6.  Robert Woods
USC
6’0″/201 Lbs.

I followed Woods as a five-star prep athlete before he declared to USC.  He’s matured as a receiver perhaps just a bit less than I expected, but I believe he’ll be a fine NFL producer.

Some have pegged Woods to be a WR1 in the NFL, but I think he’s best suited as a high-upside complementary WR2, perhaps beside a more noteworthy receiver as Andre Johnson or Brandon Marshall (just as an example).  He’s got good (not great) size and understands how to use his body to his advantage.  He’s arguably the most NFL-ready receiver in this draft based on route running, route maturity and execution.  Within his route tree, he does a fine job with his footwork, head fakes and understands how to sink his hips for a clean break from the defender to create space and complete the route through the reception.  He has enough  speed (4.51) that, when combined with his football IQ, allows him to get into the soft spot of deep zones or run by the safety.

He’s not overly gifted with leaping skills and rarely makes acrobatic receptions, but he’s a quality hands catcher and has toughness beyond his size.  Woods is one of those receivers who is just a good overall “football player” and is willing to perform the small things as well as he does the bigger things.  Whether blocking, route running or on special teams, Woods should have a productive fantasy career in the right system and I have him pegged as the least risky receiver in my top ten.

[vsw id=”7yo_Tpp1UJw” source=”youtube” width=”425″ height=”344″ autoplay=”no”]

7.  Terrance Williams
Baylor
6’2″/208 Lbs.

Williams has the potential to be an extremely capable and exciting NFL receiver.  It may be cliche’, but he’ll only be as good as his work ethic, intelligence and dedication to his craft will allow.

He’s anything but a dynamic receiver, although he has good size and plays a bit bigger than his listed 6’2″ frame.  He’s not an overly adept leaper or route runner, nor does he run an impressive route tree.  He consistently catches with his body, rounds/cuts off his routes and appears somewhat clumsy over his feet.  But beyond the limitations, he also appears to have strong hands when used, plays bigger of the line of scrimmage than his strength would suggest and does have good leverage mechanics when positioning for a ball in traffic.

Looking at his listed forty time of 4.52, I find it a bit incongruent with his game tapes, at least before the reception.  After the reception or on vertical “9” routes, speed is evident, but in the midst of most patterns he seems somewhat heavy-footed and lumbering.  His hands are inconsistent and he drops some balls that should be easily caught.  He is a willing blocker, but only average in this area.

Normally I would discount receivers of Williams’ type, but there’s something there about him that reminds me of Terrell Owens.

[vsw id=”nXcPv4qzwOA” source=”youtube” width=”425″ height=”344″ autoplay=”no”]

8.  Markus Wheaton
Oregon State
5’11″/189 Lbs

Wheaton is a high energy and relatively dynamic receiver in the mold of ex-Buffalo receiver Lee Evans.  While looking for other similarly styled receivers, I keep coming back to Evans, and that’s not a bad thing.

Wheaton does possess a pair of consistent hands and he shows the ability to snatch the ball well even though he allows many other passes to reach his body.  He’s of high character and work ethic, is quicker than fast and shows the ability to run most routes.  He plays true to his size and in the open field he does have the ability to make first defenders miss, but his game is more dependent on receiving the ball in space.  On patterns, he shows a nice ability to chop his feet to create space and reception angles.  For his size, he does a fine job of using his body to make receptions and is also adept at completing the reception over his shoulder.

Wheaton’s character and humble disposition are among the strengths fueling his rise heading into the draft.  His exceptional hands and willing attitude will pay dividends at the next level.

On the downside, he’ll need to work on getting off of jams in the NFL.  He’s appears to be very susceptible to being knocked off his route or otherwise disrupted by more physical corners – this single trait is arguably the toughest for smaller sized receivers to overcome.  He’s not strong in the area of blocking and he does need to refine his route running across the entire tree, but he’s going to provide nice upside from the second round of rookie drafts.

[vsw id=”bIs0pFOkR74″ source=”youtube” width=”425″ height=”344″ autoplay=”no”] 

9.  Stedman Bailey
West Virginia
5’10″/195 Lbs.

Much like Montee Ball at the running back position, Bailey is a player who will fly under the radar to those more dynamic, bigger or of higher profile.  But in 2012, he  pulled in 113 receptions for 1,627 yards and 25 touchdowns – there’s nothing under the radar about those numbers.

During the NFL Combine, Bailey didn’t stand out in any one particular area.  He has 4.52 speed, only fair leaping ability and isn’t physically strong.  What he does have is a nose for the football, great instincts and the physicality of a much bigger receiver.  He doesn’t possess a true second gear and is a bit of a ‘rolling’ runner in that he doesn’t have overly impressive start-stop ability.  He has big hands (10″) for his size and is a reliable hands-catcher.  After the catch, he shows an adept first step and the ability to stay on his feet through first glancing contact.

Existing in the same receiving corps as Tavon Austin, it’s an unknown as to whether Bailey is a reliable route runner who is able to create on his own or if he’s reliable as a WR2 in an offense, more adept at taking advantage of rolled coverages and soft areas on the field.  Regardless, he’s a reliable out and speed-out receiver with good instincts.  He’s going to have tremendous upside as a smaller possession style receiver at the next level.

[vsw id=”tJFx52Bccfg” source=”youtube” width=”425″ height=”344″ autoplay=”no”]

10.  Da’Rick Rogers
Tennessee Tech
6’3″/205 Lbs.

If not for significant off-the-field and character concerns, Rogers would be ranked much higher.  A bit like this year’s running back Christine Michael, Rogers flourished at the Combine and sent scouts scurrying for game tape.  He has supreme leaping ability, is extremely agile for a receiver of his size, has better than fair hands and has WR1 ability.

Unfortunately, the maturity and character issues make for a risky selection and he’ll need to be drafted by a team with a good leadership and coaching structure.  Because of his small-school affiliation to end his collegiate career, he’s a bit of mystery even without the character risk.  He’s likely going to be a late second or early third round dynasty rookie selection and will carry a lot of upside with that selection.

[vsw id=”yODL-GxDseM” source=”youtube” width=”425″ height=”344″ autoplay=”no”]

11.  Quinton Patton
Louisiana Tech
6’0″/204 Lbs.

Another high-upside player worth noting.  The problem with “high-upside” players is they haven’t displayed enough to have realized their potential to a great degree.

Patton possesses great feet, a quick first step and acceleration quicker than most receivers in this class.  He’s a bit limited in the area of route tree experience, but he runs a nice post-corner as well as a series of out routes.  His hands are relatively reliable and he shows at least some ability to climb the ladder to make a reception.  He’s an extremely willing blocker (even bordering on adept).  He plays bigger than his measured 6’0″ size as well.  He also shows good ability to drop his hips on his breaks or after the reception to make the first man miss.  His hands do fail him on occasion and he doesn’t display speed enough to consistently take the top of a NFL defense.

Working in Patton’s favor is a high degree of character, leadership and work ethic.  For NFL comparison, he reminds me a lot of Greg Jennings.

[vsw id=”eUVYuKAjDIo” source=”youtube” width=”425″ height=”344″ autoplay=”no”]

12.  Aaron Dobson
Marshall
6’3″/210 Lbs.

Dobson is a big receiver who plays large as well as a bit stiff.  He’s not extremely dynamic in the open field or within his route tree, but he plays with physicality, shields defenders well and has reliable hands when snatching the ball.  He does sometimes  suffer from a lack of concentration and laziness as he often lets the ball get to his body.   One of the more raw receivers in this class.  In time, has the prototypical size to be an outside receiver and the ability to make ridiculous catches.

He is a bit of a single-dynamic receiver, but with an intriguing size quotient that bears watching.  He’s a borderline late-second, early-third, receiver who will be great affected by the situation in which he is drafted into.  History has proven to me that it’s far too easy to get excited about the big receivers drafted in the middle rounds.  In most cases, I’ve found it’s best to allow other coaches to take the risk while I focus on more proven production and upside.

[vsw id=”99lzd57Ib_w” source=”youtube” width=”425″ height=”344″ autoplay=”no”]

13.  Marquess Wilson
Washington State
6’4″/185 Lbs.

While all receivers coming from college are likely to be described as “raw,” Wilson defines the term.

With the ball in his hands, he appears fast and fluid.  Within the route tree, he appears somewhat tenuous or uninspired.  A long strider who gains acceleration quickly, Wilson needs significant route intelligence, needs to learn the finer points of creating space at the top of his routes and must mature.  He’s an emotional player who seems to exhibit questionable behavior and acts out when pressured or frustrated. After all, he did quit on his team last year, citing abuse from the coaching staff, namely Mike Leach.  On the field, he’s a reliable target who needs significant work in every phase if he’s ever to start in the NFL.

To his credit, Wilson is a match-up nightmare for smaller corners as he climbs the ladder effortless and (much like Cordarrelle Patterson) has smaller hands that play much bigger.  I have a hard time seeing Wilson being selected inside the top 30 picks in a dynasty rookie draft.

[vsw id=”AM2OcHf6ias” source=”youtube” width=”425″ height=”344″ autoplay=”no”]

14.  Ryan Swope
Texas A&M
6’0″/206 Lbs.

A thickly built prototypical slot style receiver in the NFL.  At 6”0″ and 205 lbs., Swope has the size speed (4.34) dynamic to make some noise in the right situation at the next level.  I first discounted his athleticism until watching multiple tape sessions. What I found was a very willing and capable football player who understands how to use leverage and intelligence to make the most of his game.  In blocking, he uses his hands well and is willing to engage early, rather than giving up space to the defender.  In his route running (while he could use mentoring on dropping his hips and not getting lazy at the top of his routes), he shows intelligence in how to slide and sit at spots that maximize completion percentage.

Swope’s hands are better than advertised and his leaping ability is notable considering his smaller stature.  He’s physical and willing to climb the ladder to battle for the ball at its highest point.  He isn’t overly agile given his speed, but can make defenses pay in space.  Was a running back in high school and his training is obvious as he gets his shoulders downhill quickly.  Learning how to use space more efficiently is going to help him in the NFL, much like it did Danny Amendola.  He’s not comparable to Amendola here, but his upside may be similar if he’s able to hang on in the NFL until opportunity finds him.

[vsw id=”X5SazsiYVCI” source=”youtube” width=”425″ height=”344″ autoplay=”no”]

15.  Kenny Stills
Oklahoma
6’0″/190 Lbs.

Many like Stills and his intellectual and finesse game at receiver.  Having watched nearly every tape available, I have no expectation he’ll be a difference-making fantasy receiver at the next level.  His size is average, his timed speed is faster than is his playing speed and while his hands are reliable, he simply isn’t overly dynamic in any phase of his game.  He struggles at the point of attack, in his get-off or in blocking, often getting manhandled by larger players.  If he receives the ball in space, Stills does flash the timed speed (4.38) we’ve seen, but at the NFL level he’ll likely be relegated to the slot and have to make his mark via quick/speed outs and slants.

There’s no questioning his character or work ethic and he does seem to possess the football intelligence to maximize his potential.  He’ll be drafted very late in fantasy rookie drafts and unless he’s drafted into a notable situation, he very well could enter the preseason as a free agent in your league.

[vsw id=”X5SazsiYVCI” source=”youtube” width=”425″ height=”344″ autoplay=”no”]

Next Five

16.  Corey Fuller, Virginia Tech (6’2″/204)
17.  Chris Harper, Kansas State (6’1″/229)
18.  Mark Harrison, Rutgers (6’3″/231)
19.  Cobi Hamilton, Texas (6’2’/212)
20.  Aaron Mellette, Elon (6’2″/217)

To form your own complete opinion, make sure you check out the DLF Rookie Draft Board and our Rookie Draft Guide.

• Author
• Recent Posts

Jeff Haverlack

Co-Founder at Dynasty League Football

Appreciative husband and proud father who poorly attempts to balance family life with his passion for creating the largest, most helpful and most impactful fantasy community on the planet! DLF was created for the community and we're committed to each member within it! Hope anyone playing this great game will call DLF home in some way!

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff

Latest posts by Jeff Haverlack (see all)

• Lineup Advice: Wrap-up, Thank You and Goodbye (TTFN) - January 1, 2024
• Lineup Advice: Week 17 – Championship Edition - December 26, 2023
• Lineup Advice: Week 16 – The “What is” Edition - December 19, 2023