NFL Draft Primer: Ranking the Quarterback Destinations
With the 2013 NFL Draft rapidly approaching and the annual chess match that is free agency in its final stages, teams are making their preparations for the most important stretch of the off-season. The quarterback carousel has already been as active and intriguing as ever this Spring with multiple starting quarterbacks either being traded or cut outright. This rookie draft class doesn’t include any can’t miss prospects like Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III, but also unlike last year, there isn’t a single team that is going to need a rookie to step in and play immediately. Because of that, these players should get a better chance to develop behind proven veterans so there should be quite a few guys that become prime dynasty stashes. Geno Smith is the only quarterback most pundits agree is a lock to be a first round selection. The next group that includes guys like EJ Manuel, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray and Tyler Wilson will see their future dynasty value depend on the team that selects them much more so than normal.
This list considers several factors which include but are not limited to offensive line strength, complementary offensive weapons, coaching, organizational stability, the current depth chart, incumbent player age and most importantly opportunity. There are several organizations that have entirely new Head Coaches and/or General Managers as well as several that appear to be on the brink of replacing those positions in the near future, so that was taken into account as well.
Here are all 32 teams ranked as potential landing spots for quarterbacks. The rankings are split into four tiers, from the best (four stars) to the worst (one star).
Four Stars
Philadelphia Eagles
This is as close to an ideal situation as it gets for a rookie quarterback. At the top, there’s an offensive guru in new head coach Chip Kelly. At the next level, there’s an offensive coordinator well known for his ability to develop quarterbacks in Pat Shurmur. On the field, the Eagles arguably have the league’s most talented collection of young position players including LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek and the recently acquired James Casey. The only problem here is trying to figure out which direction Kelly is planning to take the offense. Once asked who the perfect quarterback for his system would be, he cited Boston Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo for his abilities to create opportunities for teammates and distribute the ball with precision. Incumbent starter Michael Vick will get first crack at the opportunity to emulate Rondo, but history suggests his propensity for injuries and/or turnovers will make the experiment short-lived. The bottom line here is if the Eagles draft a quarterback early this year, one would be wise to make every reasonable effort to acquire that player in their upcoming dynasty league rookie draft.
Arizona Cardinals
Make no mistake about it, the Cardinals brought Carson Palmer on board as a stop-gap until Bruce Arians has time to find his guy. Unfortunately, it might be a couple of years until he’s able to restore the NFL’s worst offensive line but the cupboard of position players is currently well-stocked with young talent. Wide receivers Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts will have time to develop under the tutelage of All-World receiver Larry Fitzgerald and tight end Rob Housler showed nice potential last year. Another benefit a rookie quarterback has in Arizona is the very low-pressure fan base which allows slow and steady growth, an environment which doesn’t exist in many NFL markets.
Buffalo Bills
The recently acquired Kevin Kolb can howl at the moon to his heart’s content about competing for Super Bowls right away but everyone, including head coach Doug Marrone, knows that is just empty hubris at this point in time. There are some nice offensive weapons on board with wide receiver Stevie Johnson, underrated tight end Scott Chandler, and of course, the dynamic CJ Spiller at running back. However, like the Arizona Cardinals above, the Bills need to address a porous offensive line before they can give a young quarterback a legitimate chance to develop.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Former first-round pick Blaine Gabbert is the poster-boy for the downside of the “trial by fire” method when it comes to developing an NFL caliber quarterback. He either just wasn’t ready yet or his team wasn’t quite ready for him, but it seems unlikely that new Head Coach Gus Bradley will want to hang his hat on his predecessor’s coat rack. Chad Henne will be a serviceable game manager until Bradley can groom a replacement capable of exploiting the talents of Cecil Shorts and future NFL Hall-of-Famer Justin Blackmon. The Jaguars aren’t a team one would consider to be chock-full of talent at the moment, but a new regime brings a fresh start and an opportunity to grow organically – an excellent situation for a rookie quarterback.
Three Stars
Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach Andy Reid is about as good as it gets when it comes to developing quarterbacks. The Chiefs won’t select a quarterback with their first overall pick but they are expected to pick one up later in the draft. Whomever Kansas City gets will become an ideal dynasty stash. Yes, they traded for Alex Smith recently, but his contract has just two years remaining. That seems like the perfect amount of time for Reid to get a rookie familiar with the nuances of his high-octane and complicated offense schemes, ready to take the reins by 2015.
Cleveland Browns
Brandon Weeden was awful as a rookie and is already collecting mail from AARP. Recently hired head coach Rob Chudzinski owes no allegiances to Weeden, so taking another quarterback this year (at least for depth purposes) makes a lot of sense. If that happens, the chance to play alongside Trent Richardson and throw to Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron would be quite favorable. If Weeden doesn’t show signs of improvement, that could happen sooner than one might think.
San Diego Chargers
Mike McCoy coaches quarterbacks as well as anyone in the NFL and this is absolutely a make-or-break year for Philip Rivers. The Chargers will undoubtedly select a quarterback in this draft as their current depth chart includes only Charlie Whitehurst. Young talent abounds on the roster in players such as Ryan Mathews, Vincent Brown and Ladarius Green so this is definitely a situation to keep an eye on for dynasty owners.
Chicago Bears
Receiving targets Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Martellus Bennett are nice weapons around which new head coach Marc Trestman can base an offense. However, Jay Cutler’s days are numbered as the Bears’ quarterback because of his turnovers and frowny faces. Whoever eventually replaces Cutler will have a low bar to hurdle and a lot of support around him.
St. Louis Rams
Jeff Fisher doesn’t seem like the most patient person in the world and Sam Bradford’s rate of improvement at this point in his career has been marginal at best. There isn’t much behind him on the roster at the moment, so expect the Rams to add a quarterback in the draft to at least send a jolt of urgency if not take over completely at some point.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos drafted Brock Osweiler in the second round of the 2012 draft to be the heir apparent to Peyton Manning, but so far there has been no strong indication one way or another about how well that plan is progressing. If John Elway were to draft another quarterback this year, it would be a very healthy situation for a solid dynasty stash.
New England Patriots
The Patriots have a very similar situation as the Denver Broncos. Tom Brady is in the twilight of his career and even though it’s reasonable to assume that Bill Belichick has been performing psychological manipulation experiments on Ryan Mallett in order to get him ready to take over, it’s impossible to know if they have worked. Until that is resolved, the QB2 spot on this roster remains a very lucrative title to hold.
Two Stars
Detroit Lions
It’s not exactly like Matthew Stafford has been a model of health during his tenure in Detroit. Plus, there really isn’t much behind him on the depth chart other than journeyman Shaun Hill and undrafted signee Kellen Moore. An offensive arsenal which includes Reggie Bush, Brandon Pettigrew, Ryan Broyles and some guy named Calvin Johnson is enough to make the Lions an intriguing spot for a rookie quarterback.
Houston Texans
The Texans have the steady, yet-unspectacular Matt Schaub at the helm and a potential replacement already in TJ Yates. It’s an offense predicated on the running game whose core group is starting to age a bit, but this is landing spot holds merit based on organizational stability.
New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees might hold a few NFL passing records, but he’s also well into his 30’s. So, too, are the guys holding his clipboard and towel (Luke McCown and Seneca Wallace). In fact, the entire roster seems to be getting a little long in the tooth so it’s reasonable to expect offensive wizard Sean Payton to start training some replacements in the near future.
San Francisco 49ers
Don’t expect Jim Harbaugh to give Colin Kaepernick carte blanche just because he outperformed Alex Smith last season and didn’t prevent the 49ers from making it to the Super Bowl. Harbaugh is a veritable quarterback whisperer and is likely chomping at the bit to begin work on his next protégé. It doesn’t hurt that there’s all sort of supporting talent on the roster already.
Minnesota Vikings
Christian Ponder was coach Leslie Frazier’s first draft pick in 2011 so, per generally accepted NFL standards, their fate is henceforth intertwined. The Vikings are likely a long way off from considering a quarterback change, but this wouldn’t be a terrible situation for a rookie to grow within.
New York Jets
A Head Coach probably being given a last chance at success, a weak offensive line, a dearth of offensive talent, an impatient fan base, a scrutinizing media circus, an in-town rival sharing the same stadium, a divided locker room and a Tim Tebow just to make things more interesting. The truth is, for all of those reasons, the Jets probably belong much further down this list because it seems like the worst possible scenario for a rookie quarterback. But the Jets have one thing that very few others on this list can offer and that’s opportunity. The whole situation is already a grease fire on top of a sinking ship, stranger than fiction and primed for a season of MTV’s Real World: NY Jets or at least an episode of True Life: I’m a New York Jet. Maybe all they need is a quarterback who can avoid butt fumbles and all will be well. Maybe. Rex Ryan should probably put his tattoo artist on stand-by.
Cincinnati Bengals
Does anybody really believe that Andy Dalton is a franchise quarterback? He’s not in danger of losing his job anytime soon but there are worse positions for a rookie to be in than one step away from throwing to AJ Green, Mo Sanu and Jermaine Gresham with regularity.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben Roethlisberger has only played one full 16 game schedule in his entire nine year career. The day will eventually come when doctors refuse to let him sustain another concussion/broken rib/broken jaw/etc. and his replacement will be a hot commodity for dynasty owners.
Oakland Raiders
The quarterback du jour in Oakland is Matt Flynn, as much of an unproven wildcard as there is right now in the NFL. Behind him on the depth chart is Terrelle Pryor and nothing else. If the post-Al Davis era is truly committed to becoming a respectable franchise once again, it’s going to start with respectable quarterback play.
Tennessee Titans
Incumbent starter Jake Locker is one of the most athletic quarterbacks in the league but the Titans’ off-season acquisition of Ryan Fitzpatrick is a clear indication that the front office has started to doubt Locker’s ability to take the next step. The truth is that Locker just isn’t very good at throwing a football. This situation is probably a year removed from becoming a good-to-great situation for a rookie quarterback, but it’s closer to moving up a tier on this list than down.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If quarterbacking an NFL team doesn’t work out for Josh Freeman, at least he’s got a bright future in doing professional Michael Jackson impersonations. Doug Martin’s presence ensures that the Tampa Bay ground game will be in good shape for many years to come.
One Star
Indianapolis Colts
Anybody behind Luck has about as much fantasy value as Jim Sorgi did.
Washington Redskins
Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins have the quarterback spot locked up for the foreseeable future.
New York Giants
Eli Manning still has enough years left and Tom Coughlin doesn’t develop quarterbacks, so this is not a very appealing destination.
Atlanta Falcons
It’s the Matt Ryan show in Atlanta right now and it’s going to be in town for a while.
Baltimore Ravens
Unless your league gives points for tackling kick returners from the sidelines or the ability to hold a clipboard, move along.
Green Bay Packers
Pop quiz: Who had the second most touchdown passes for the Packers in 2012? The answer is punter Tim Masthay with one (on a fake field goal). Keep that useless piece of trivia in your back pocket for a rainy day.
Carolina Panthers
It’s plausible a running quarterback like Cam Newton will eventually need a capable backup who will thus hold dynasty value, but you’re not going to find anybody from this year’s draft class crossing their fingers and hoping for that job.
Seattle Seahawks
If a player who was given a big free agent contract (Matt Flynn) couldn’t find a way to get on the field, nobody else should expect to surpass Russell Wilson anytime soon either.
Miami Dolphins
Head coach Joe Philbin is tied at the hip to 2012 first round pick Ryan Tannehill and the team’s new logo looks a little more majestic, and little less grumpy, so that’s a good thing.
Dallas Cowboys
Up until the moment it was reported that Tony Romo signed a $120M contract that will keep him in blue and silver until 2020, this was a potentially a very attractive spot for a rookie quarterback. Now, not so much.
