Rookie Q&A with Chad Parsons

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Over the course of the last couple of months, I’ve had the chance to have numerous conversations via Twitter with Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL).  We usually discuss a wide range of topics from trade scenarios to anything NFL Draft related.  Like any good dynasty owner, I always try absorbing as much information I can from Chad and I’m always intrigued by the ways he grades out his rookie prospects using a metric system.  I asked Chad if he would be interested in sharing the information given to me with the DLF community and thankfully for us, he accepted.

DLF:  Chad, first off, I’d like to thank you for taking the time to answer some questions for all of us dynasty fanatics here at DLF.  Tell us a little bit more about yourself and what you do.

Chad: In my non-fantasy football world, I am an active duty Army musician, performing at a wide variety of events while stationed in the Washington, DC area. My wife is very understanding and supportive of my hobby/obsession, which has allowed me to have my own dynasty podcast, Under The Helmet, for a year and a half as well as progress as a writer/analyst to the point where I will be joining the ranks of Footballguys.com this coming season as a staff writer.

DLF: How did you get involved with Footballguys.com and where do you see yourself going from here?

Chad: I began writing for Footballguys.com for the 2012 season doing the full game recaps on a weekly basis. It was a tremendous opportunity to get my foot in the door with such a respected entity in the fantasy football community. With an expanded role going forward, I cannot wait to continue to grow as a writer with them for years to come. Looking ahead, I really like the advice I received from the great Cecil Lammey a couple of years ago – be passionate, work hard, keep improving and do not be afraid to ask. It sounds simple, yet is so very powerful.  When a door opens with an opportunity, all you have to do is keep taking steps forward towards your ultimate goal.

DLF:  We’ve talked a little bit about Cordarrelle Patterson via Twitter and both agree that he is the riskiest players in the draft due to how high he will be drafted.  Could you elaborate on those thoughts for our readers?

Chad: Absolutely. While I watch a ton of NFL draft prospect tape, I also use metrics and their predictive value as a tool in assessing the new class of incoming rookies. My projection model for each skill position has been in the making for two years now. I see the positives with a player like Patterson. He moves well for a receiver of his size and has some great highlight moments from his college days. That said, it is really tough for me to get behind a receiver that has his level of production. Including this year’s crop, I have over 400 drafted receivers in my database. Without going into a lengthy explanation, 163 of them since 2001 have the statistical “kiss of death” moniker. What that means, it they have at least one flaw in their metrics. It could be production, size, speed, or overall profile. Of those players, they have just four (yes, count them, four) seasons of starter-caliber (12+ PPG in PPR scoring) production in their first three NFL seasons. Considering they total 398 seasons between them, I do not bet on those odds. Patterson, among others in 2013, has that KOD label.

Patterson was just not that productive in college – he caught just 14% of his team’s touchdowns in 2012 and was only slightly better in terms of receiving yards. Those are anemic marks that few drafted receivers, let alone ones likely to go in the first round of the NFL Draft, fall below. Like Tavon Austin, Patterson had a high-level of rushing production (308 yards, three scores) in 2012, but a receiver (even Percy Harvin), has to make their fantasy living as a receiver in the NFL.

Back to the intoxication that is his size-speed combination.

There have been plenty of receiver prospects who have fit into that mold over the past decade. While any singular pairing could provoke a war of words in terms of “well, those players are nothing like the new, latest, shiny star-in-the-making” Patterson, I look at a broad picture of odds and probability. A group of comparable players does not absolutely predict the future with a player, but it does shift the odds one way or another in my opinion. Of the receivers with a similar size-speed combination, Patterson has about half the production of the next lowest prospect to be drafted in the first round. I will let that sink in for a minute. Patterson is not even close to guys like Robert Meachem, Dwayne Bowe, and Koren Robinson to name a few. It is easy to get the old recent goggles on, but as the years pass, it is tough to remember how prospects were thought of that year, in the moment, as the new shiny toys in dynasty.

My final point (as this topic could fill an entire 45-minute podcast with ease) is the expected cost of Patterson in fantasy terms. He will be a top five pick at a minimum and likely higher than that in essentially all rookie drafts – that is a very high cost for a player with his risk profile. If an owner likes Patterson (even after presenting my case) I would advise letting another team draft him with an early first round pick and trading for him in the next year or two as I project opportunities to buy at a lower cost.

DLF:  I know that you’re a metrics guy, so from a metrics standpoint, who do you feel is the absolute safest player a dynasty owner could draft this year, regardless of situation?

Chad: I alluded to a few things in my previous answer that this question allows me to unpack a little bit. There are a few different ways to use metrics in terms of projecting college prospects. The first is their raw score I get through a tested set of characteristics. That score orders the players among their position. Next, I weed out KOD (kiss of death) players because the odds are stacked squarely against them and they will be drafted in rookie/startup drafts far higher than I would dip my toe in the water.

The final step is sifting through the history of prospects at the position to find the most closely-related players. After doing all that, the acquisition cost is certainly a consideration because a second or third-round rookie pick is considered far more of a lottery ticket investment than a high selection. In terms of players in the first round range of rookie drafts, I think DeAndre Hopkins is probably the safest player. While he may not dazzle with freaky athletic ability, his production and similarities to say, a Michael Crabtree, despite not being projected as a top ten pick in the NFL draft, makes me confident he will be a quality fantasy player.

DLF:  Like I mentioned earlier, we’ve seen eye to eye on a lot of topics we’ve discussed in the past.  The one disagreement we’ve had that stands out in my mind was the potential of wide receiver Quinton Patton.  As you know, I’m a huge fan of Patton’s, but you’re on the other side of the fence.  What about him makes you think he has a limited upside?

Chad: Since our conversation, I went back and looked at Patton’s games. I think he is a good enough player, especially his ability to make the first defender miss after the catch. On to the metrics: the closest three comparable receiver prospects I found to Patton are Greg Salas, Andre Roberts, and Jason Avant. In NFL terms, those are decent players. Roberts even hit 12 PPG in his third NFL season in 2012. That said, those are disappointing names to be associated with as a potential second-round NFL Draft pick. Your dynasty team will not be significantly impacted with a Roberts-type career path. Despite playing at Louisiana Tech, Patton did not dominate his own team’s passing game. I would want to see over 40% of the team’s passing yards and/or more than 45% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. Patton falls well-short of those marks.

In summary, Patton’s production is largely average for a drafted receiver, his size-speed combination is average at best and his list of comparable players gives little reason to expect anything more than that. I would not be surprised if Patton sticks around for a number of years in the NFL, but in fantasy terms, I would expect him to use up a roster spot for a while as owners try to figure out what they have in him. The opportunity cost of that roster spot to figure out that Patton is not likely to be an impactful fantasy starter, is not one I am willing to pay.

DLF:  It’s been well documented via Twitter that you are a huge fan of Chris Givens.  What player in this draft class have you found grades out similarly to Givens?

Chad: My short answer is nobody. Givens had over 40% of his team’s yards and touchdowns in his final college season, above-average speed for his size and did 19 bench reps, a pretty complete profile for a guy drafted in the fourth round. I was, to my knowledge, one of the only fantasy minds out there that liked Givens more than Brian Quick, his Rams teammate that was drafted two rounds higher. Considering the difference in their respective cost a year ago, Givens was the clear choice in my opinion.

The limiting thing about comparable players is that there may not be a similar guy from a certain draft class. That said, here are my best efforts as to the closest guys to Givens in 2013. Markus Wheaton has a similar profile of strength (20 reps) and same 41% of his team’s touchdowns to go along with a little lighter frame and slower speed given his weight. Consider him a poor-man’s Givens as a prospect despite the fact that he will likely go higher than Givens’ draft slot of 96 overall in 2012.

Another name to know that some will read here for the first time is Chad Bumphis from Mississippi State. He is a little thicker than Givens, but has a similar profile. I cannot take credit for discovering Bumphis as Jon Moore (@TheCFX) got my initial attention with this article on Rotoviz.com highlighting the lesser-known receiver. Bumphis ran in the mid-4.4s in addition to catching 43% of his team’s touchdowns. He will likely go undrafted in all but the deepest of dynasty rookie drafts, but is a name to know in terms of similarities to Chris Givens.

DLF:  Division II prospects that have produced big numbers consistently always get my attention.  This year, I think Aaron Mellette is the best small school prospect in this draft class.  Do you think stacking him up next to Brian Quick is a fair comparison, and in what position would you feel comfortable drafting him in?

Chad: I have 58 wide receivers in my database for the 2013 class. Probably about half of those guys get drafted. This may be one of the strongest years for undrafted receivers in recent memory. I mention that because there are a slew of small school guys who deserve notice. That said, Mellette has the highest projection score of all of them. He averaged over 1.6 TD/game, 43% of his team’s yards, and a whopping 67% of his team’s touchdowns – that trio of production metrics puts him in RARE company. Here are some names who were in that neighborhood their final college season: Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Vincent Jackson, Nate Washington, and Larry Fitzgerald. Oh, and Marquise Lee, who is not even draft-eligible until next year. The production alone should get a dynasty owner’s full attention. In addition to his production, Mellette is 6’2”, 217 pounds (sounds like Patterson’s size, doesn’t it?), and a better-than-average 4.54 40-time for his size.

I am pretty confident Mellette will be drafted long after #33 overall (Quick’s spot last year), which will mean the road to playing time will likely be more of an uphill climb. Mellette’s production palette overshadows Quick’s by quite a bit with 9% more of the team’s touchdowns, 4% more of the team’s yards, and 0.7 more touchdowns per game. Quick has a couple inches on him, but that is about all. Like Givens vs. Quick last year, give me Mellette at his market price (dirt cheap) this year over Quick at his in the coming weeks/months. With a long-term perspective, patience, and a deep enough roster to hold him, I would be more than happy to draft Mellette in the third round or later of a rookie draft.

DLF: Fill in the blank.  When we look back on the 2013 wide receiver class in five years, it will be considered ___________________?

Chad: …the weakest overall since 2008. In 2008, there were well over 30 receivers drafted and a ton in rounds 2-3. No receivers were picked in the first round, but Jordy Nelson and DeSean Jackson emerged as quality picks from the second round. This year, I personally do not think any of the receivers warrant a pick in the first round of the NFL draft. I like Hopkins possibly in the latter part of the round, but Patterson and Austin, for example, are second round picks to me. That means they will be over-drafted in rookie drafts because of where they are drafted by an NFL team. I would not be surprised if 3-5 receivers emerge over the first three years of their career into solid fantasy options, but I would not expect the top level production recent classes have provided.

DLF:  Who is your favorite sleeper running back prospect in this draft class, and why?

Chad: For this question, I am going to throw out any back who is projected to go in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. Here are some of my favorite names to know after that point: Montel Harris, Kerwynn Williams, Trevor Scales and Stefphon Jefferson. Obviously, a path to playing time is important but monitor those names through the NFL draft late rounds as well as the priority free agent period. All of them produced well at the college level and have enough of an athletic profile to project to the NFL level. Harris and Williams are the well-known names on that list. I want to shed a little more light on Scales. He is out of Harvard, has above-average speed for his size, and had one of the fastest 10-yard splits this year, in addition to a 10’9” board jump and 6.71-second three-cone drill. All marks that get a late-round guy noticed this time of year.

DLF:  What running back that will likely be drafted in the top ten do you see having the biggest “bust” potential?

Chad: The group to choose from would include Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, and then some of Jonathan Franklin, Montee Ball, Marcus Lattimore, and maybe Christine Michael after his combine buzz. Out of that group, I would rather have Franklin over Bernard and Lacy considering the difference in cost. Lattimore is a worthy gamble in the late first of rookie drafts in my opinion. Based on how they grade out in my model, I would be avoiding Bernard and Michael at this point. Michael blew up the combine drills, but still under-produced. No matter what his final NFL Draft slot is, he will have the lowest projection score in that tier. Combine numbers are part of the equation, but his do not offset his production enough to be enthusiastic about him as a prospect. Bernard is more of a preference. He will fall in that first-half of round one in rookie drafts, where I would rather have Franklin (projection score agrees) if going running back and likely rather go receiver than either one of them.

DLF: What is one piece of advice you have for a wannabe analyst or “scout” such as myself?

Chad: This has been a two-year journey for me to get to this point. The journey is never over. I like the projection system as an important tool in the process. I would not use it if I did not believe in it. I spent about a week this off-season back-testing this statistical-based model against the order in which the players were drafted in the NFL Draft. When a disagree occurred, the player with the higher projection score out-produced the higher-drafted player more than 60% of the time at running back, receiver and tight end – that is similar to counting cards in Vegas in my book. There are so many uncertainties in fantasy football; I am beyond excited about the clarity that advantage provides.

It takes a love of statistics, testing how much importance each one historically has, then weighting them in correct ratios. It was a big project to set up my database, but now I don’t know how I navigated rookie and start-up drafts without it. In addition to all the metrics and formulas, I still love to watch these college players actually perform. For anyone interested in studying tape, I strongly encourage spending some serious time reading one of the most essential resources in this area, Matt Waldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio. I told Matt earlier in the offseason if I had a week of football “fantasy camp”, I would not go to the Senior Bowl, or Vegas to the fantasy drafts; I would want seven days with him in his film study lab on skill position players. In summary, be a sponge in terms of the predictive quality of college production and be a film student of the game from the best resources in the business like Waldman and Greg Cosell.

DLF:  Chad, I really appreciate you taking the time out of your busy schedule to answer some questions about the 2013 rookie class for myself and the entire DLF community.  I look forward to our discussions moving forward and I’m very excited to read more of your work in the very near future.