The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On April 15, 2013

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) I’m in a 12-man league with 24-player rosters, and 16 keepers. I have Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Jay Cutler and Joe Flacco all on my team, and need to figure out what to do with the wealth. Keeping Luck and Wilson seems like a good call, but do I really need both? On the other hand, if I keep both, what do I do with Flacco and Cutler? Flacco is overpaid but consistent, while Cutler is riskier, but has higher upside with a new coach and some incoming receiving talent. Which is a better fallback in case of injuries to my studs? – Ferguson in CA

Considering your franchise constitutes only one twelfth (8.3%) of the league, it’s impressive you were able to collect one eighth (12.5%) of all the starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Though the quarterback position is devalued in 12-team leagues, this still means at least a few of the other eleven franchises will only have two starting quarterbacks rostered – and that’s before we see what happens with the NFL Draft. This puts you at a relative advantage, as your four options are locks for starting spots, while other teams might suffer from positional uncertainty. Given your high number of keepers, this puts you in prime trade position.

To answer the first part of your question, while you don’t necessarily need both Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson, it’s a no brainer to hang onto the two of them. Luck has the look of a future star in the mold of the “mobile passing stud,” a la Aaron Rodgers (a surprising, but replicable 15% of his fantasy points came from running the ball). Wilson, after being unleashed in the second half of the season and playoffs, also appears ready to permanently jump into the upper echelon of fantasy signal callers. Both have ADP’s in the top eight at the position, so you don’t want to throw either back into the general player pool.

With two starting-caliber quarterbacks in the fold, if you want to keep a third, I’d aim for upside over dependability. Since the odds dictate you’ll never wind up starting him, why not shoot for the moon? Therefore I’m advocating keeping Jay Cutler. He’s previously shown the ability to throw for over 4,000 yards in a season (something Joe Flacco hasn’t done) and he couples that with moderate rushing ability. He’s throwing to one of the game’s best receivers in Brandon Marshall, and as you mentioned, new head coach Marc Trestman is an offensive mind. With better offensive line play, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him bounce back as a QB2 in 2013.

With Flacco, what you see is what you get – a solid, if unspectacular, QB2. While he’s not of great use to you, he should be desirable to quarterback-needy teams. I would target one of those owners and attempt to trade Flacco for help at running back, receiver or tight end. Who knows, maybe if you throw out his “Super Bowl winning” resume as bait, one of your league-mates will bite – hook, line and elite sinker.

2.) I just traded Mike Wallace for Torrey Smith, Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell. Will Leshoure be a startable RB2 or FLEX next year? Should I be actively pursuing Reggie Bush? – Michael in GA

At its core, this trade centers around a debate between Wallace and Smith. Conveniently enough, our content timeline has you covered. Mark Rockwell and I make our cases for Smith and Wallace respectively, and the DLF faithful currently appears to be split right down the middle.

As a staunch advocate of Wallace, I like that you’re on the “plus” side of this trade. However, as you can see in the link above, I believe Wallace’s potential trumps that of Smith at a level not commensurate with the difference in ADP. Leshoure and Bell are good players (I’m particularly high on Bell), but that might not afford you any immediate statistical gains.

As you alluded to, Detroit’s signing of Reggie Bush as an every-down back mitigates the values of both Leshoure and Bell. Recently, DLF’s own Eric Olinger made a compelling case for Bush’s potential in the Lions’ offense. He’s definitely the back to own in the Detroit backfield, and if you have the assets to make a play for him, I would.

With that said, Leshoure and Bell are still useful dynasty pieces. As a 23-year old player still rounding into form after an Achilles’ tear, Leshoure presumably still has his best years in front of him. He should also benefit from receiving the “Lion’s share” (pun intended) of goal-line carries.

Bell, on the other hand, had an otherworldly rate of fantasy production in 2012. At 1.19 fantasy points per touch (134 touches total), Bell’s PPR prowess on a per-play basis transcended that of every top-10 running back. I actually prefer him as the Detroit backup to own, and given Bush’s expansive injury history (only two of seven seasons with 16 games played), Bell should still get his opportunities in 2013 and beyond.

3.) In my 12-man, non-PPR keeper league, we start one quarterback, two running backs, two receivers and one tight end. We keep six guys, so which one of these seven players would you drop: Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Doug Martin, Jamaal Charles, Alfred Morris, CJ Spiller or AJ Green? – Frank in Montreal

We’ve all heard the old phrase “it’s a good problem to have,” and I think that’s what we’re looking at here. Somehow you’ve managed to collect four surefire first round picks in Martin, Charles, Spiller and Green, as well as two of the top five dynasty quarterbacks. Oh, and that Alfred Morris guy? He’s not so bad in a non-PPR setting either.

Unfortunately, with no FLEX position, you’re suffering from a lack of starting spots for your studs. You’re overstocked at both the quarterback and running back positions, so those are going to be the guys who get the axe. However, instead of outright dropping a player, why not try improving the other positions via trade?

You undoubtedly have the best collection of running backs in the league, so I’d attempt to trade Morris to a team devoid of ball carriers. Given the win-now nature of your keeper lineup, and despite the allure of ten-plus years of fantasy prominence, I’d also elect to keep Brees (the overall number-one fantasy signal caller three of the past five years) over Luck. Therefore, I would target the owner of Jimmy Graham and propose the following: Luck and Morris for Graham and his first round pick. You would then have two first round picks, where you could reel in some receiver depth behind Green. Sure, you’re giving up value, but a keeper core of Brees, Martin, Charles, Spiller, Green and Graham should have you set up both immediately, and for the long haul.

4.) I was offered Ronnie Hillman and Greg Olsen for Demaryius Thomas. Should I yell at that owner now or later? – Jennifer in SC

I’ll admit, I’m a sucker for questions relating to the dynasty psychology. In essence, what we’re looking at here is a case of one owner’s trade ideology clearly not meshing with that of another. While I agree the offer was incredibly light, I think your prospective trade partner likely falls into the first of three distinct categories of trade techniques:

The Conversation Starter – On the surface, these types of trades can appear to be borderline insulting. While the owner could be trying to pull one over on you, it’s more likely they’re simply gauging your willingness to part with the player in question. In other words, it’s a trade begging for a counter-offer. I think the majority fall into this category, as it’s always prudent to see if you can acquire a player for less than market value. However, incredibly light offers such as the one you’ve detailed run the risk of destroying trade talks before they can even begin.
The Even Steven – An owner sees that his team needs align with another owner’s surplus, and vice versa. A fair offer is sent out in the hopes that no counter is necessary. Unfortunately, coming in “too strong” gives your trade partner knowledge of your desires, as well as an incentive to squeeze every last drop out of what you’re willing to give. While fair, this method has the potential to backfire.
The Surplus – An owner wants a player and will do anything to get him, including paying far more than market value dictates. These trades are often found in the general model of “n + 1 for n.” In other words, you’ll send two players for your partner’s one, or three for two, etcetera. Whenever you acquire a stud player, these are generally the types of deals that occur.

Though I think your trade partner was simply employing the “conversation starter” tactic, the offer was dangerously light. Sending a disrespectful trade offer is a good way to permanently find yourself on the bad side of your league-mates, and having one accepted can gain you the reputation of a “swindler.” So no, I don’t think you need to yell at this owner, as the damage to his trading reputation is worse than any disparaging remark you could ever dole out.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.