Knowing is Half the Battle: Prepping for Your Rookie Draft

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Growing up watching cartoons on Saturday mornings, that was always one of my favorite lines, “Knowing is half the battle.” Why is that important when it comes to your rookie drafts? Dynasty leagues are won and lost by owners taking an interest in scouting or following good scouting information, analyzing other teams needs and trends and finally doing the work for yourself.

I love April as it has been said many times..this is the time for liars. There are liars on NFL teams, liars in your leagues and liars in the media. Every team will bring in 30 non-local players for a workout. Some of those players get brought in for legitimate reasons, but many will visit to force another NFL team to show their hand. Now the liars in your league, hopefully most of you still have a local league to attend where you are look at each other and make your selections in the same room. I always loved wearing jerseys of players I would never draft, because it would force another owner to try to “get” me by drafting my “player.” Even talking someone up on twitter or on the DLF message board, can cause someone to pick someone whom they would not have otherwise. Last, but not least, the media lies. Tim Tebow getting drafted by the Broncos was a goldmine. ESPN hyped him as the best thing and kept him in the draft spotlight throughout the entire process. Matt Barkley is a media darling, but his ability to be a quality NFL starter is in doubt.

When it comes to scouting, whom do you listen to? I’ll be honest, I love to watch film myself. Football has been apart of my life for 38 years or so and I played organized football for five years. Every year I watch more film and compare it with scouting reports from others who have been around longer. Mike Mayock is one of my favorites as he doesn’t act like he knows everything. He simply states his opinion and why. The fact he is at every all-star game talking to players and scouts impresses me. I saw him being quite active several times at the East/West Shrine game week this past January. Cecil Lammey has a unique voice and is very insightful with his player thoughts. By working in radio and on a fantasy football website (footballguys.com), he gets to talk to a local media member from every team and gains tremendous insight. He is always at the NFL Draft and every all-star game as well. Much like Mayock, he shows his work. Shane P. Hallam and Joe Everett have both been going to all-star games and watch a lot of film. I am lucky enough to have as much access with them as I want. We on occasion share emails, direct messages, phone calls or podcasts together where we discuss our thoughts and find common ground. I see that sharing of knowledge happening on the DLF message board in the NCAA Prospects & NFL Draft section.

Know what the other guy needs. I will admit I’m kind of twisted when it comes to rookie drafts as I tend to map out the first two or three rounds by each teams needs. This isn’t as simple as saying running back is the consensus number one pick by the experts, so the X-Men are taking him at 1.01. Instead, look at the owner tendencies from many earlier drafts. Does someone favor SEC players or PAC-12 players? Do certain owners tend to draft hyped players like Tebow? Sometimes an owner will always take a certain position (running back or wide receiver) or will avoid taking a certain position (any IDP for instance) early. When I say mock it, select every draft slot. You may be surprised at the value you will get or what you will miss out on. This can be helpful to plan a strategy to move up or down the draft board to get the player you are targeting.

Decide what your thoughts are on every single player that you expect to be drafted in your league. If your rookie draft is six rounds with 12 teams, you better have your top 72 players that will be drafted. Set your own tiers on these players. Many draftniks, including myself, like UCLA’s running back Johnathan Franklin. It’s up to you to decide if he should be placed in the same tier as Eddie Lacy and Gio Bernard. Mayock doesn’t include Franklin in his top five running back list.

Are you more risk averse than some owners or are you willing to take chances? Players like Marcus Lattimore, Christine Michael, Travis Kelce, Da’Rick Rogers, and Cordarrelle Patterson have some of the best skill sets in their class, but they could burn you by being out of the league in a year or two. Or you can play it safe by taking players like DeAndre Hopkins and Stedman Bailey who are not exciting physical freaks, but offer consistent effort and honed skills. I tend to be a little more conservative, but am more than willing to invest in a player if the price is cheaper because of the risk. Kelce in the back half of the second or top of the third round has a lot of value versus taking Patterson in the top three picks of the draft.

Be aware of supply and demand. Perhaps the rookie running backs are running dry and you know someone loves the Big Ten and Le’Veon Bell – take him as a reserve player for you, but as a potential starter for the team that has strong wide receivers and little help at running back. You might be able to get an Eric Decker, who is tremendously de-valued right now, for Bell. These rookie pick values will never be higher than right before they get drafted. Keep that in mind while you contemplate trading them. Once you make the pick, their value goes out the window.

To recap, April is the time to gather information about rookies. Scout the players with help from people who have done it before and have been successful. Study the other teams needs in your league. Decide where upside and value meet for your team. Know when the bottom will drop off with position runs. If you keep these tips in mind, you will be ready for your rookie draft.

Please follow me on twitter at @AndrewMiley