My Favorite Mock

Since the first day of February, I have participated in twenty-four dynasty mock drafts. Often, when a dynasty owner participates in multiple mock drafts, they find themselves trying out a variety of different strategies in an effort to find one that best suits both their short term and long-term goals. This is actually not the case for me. In each of these mock drafts, I have entered with roughly the same plan, the same strategy and in most cases, the same execution.

I have drafted from many different draft spots and with a great number of dynasty players of all different skill levels. These are just a couple of things that have had an impact on the outcome of my team. I won’t focus on my specific startup draft strategies in this article, though I will touch on that in an upcoming piece. Today, I want to share with you my favorite mock draft. This is the team that would be closest to my ideal outcome entering a start-up draft this off-season.

For those of you who may not have been following our mock draft series this off-season, here are some basics about the leagues:

• Each draft consists of twelve teams drafting twenty man rosters.
• The starting requirements include one quarterback, one running back, one wide receiver, one tight end and four flex spots, which can be a running back, wide receiver or tight end.
• While our starting lineups do include team defenses, teams were not required to draft a defense in the startup draft.

The multiple flex format allows owners ultimate flexibility in building their team and forming their starting lineup.  If an owner sees great value at the tight end position, it is possible to start up to five tight ends in a given week. This, along with the one point per reception for all players, also evens out the value across all positions.

I’ll begin by taking a look at my final depth chart and then discuss each pick in greater depth. In this particular draft, I drew the six spot in the serpentine draft.

It is obvious that I went very heavy at the wide receiver position, but here’s a detailed look at my pick-by-pick evaluation of my team.

1.06 CJ Spiller, RB BUF

In the first round, I would typically select a young wide receiver, but both Calvin Johnson and AJ Green were already gone and I felt it was a bit too early for Julio Jones. That led me to one of the top running backs in the game, who is still young and lighting fast, Bills running back CJ Spiller.

2.07 Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN

After taking a running back in the first round, I knew I was targeting a wide receiver in the second and the Broncos Demaryius Thomas fell right into my lap. Dez Bryant was the other player I was hoping for, but he actually went two picks earlier. I prefer Thomas, so this was another easy pick.

3.06 Aaron Hernandez, TE NE

In my evaluation of the tight end position, there are the top three and then there’s everyone else. When the third of those (Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez) was still available in the third round, I jumped at the chance to make him a fixture of my lineup – this was important because I saw a large drop to the next tier.

4.07 Justin Blackmon, WR JAX

This pick of Jaguars wide receiver Justin Blackmon was a risky one. According to the previous month’s ADP, this was a reach. Not to mention this pick endangered my goal of grabbing one of the top ten quarterbacks. In the end, I pegged Blackmon as a player on the rise and I knew I wanted to find a second wide receiver as soon as possible. I chose Blackmon over veterans Roddy White and Wes Welker.

5.06 Russell Wilson, QB SEA

Whew! As I mentioned, I see a clear drop after the top ten quarterbacks and by my fifth round pick, eight of the others were gone. I knew the two remaining, Wilson and Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, would not make it back to my sixth round pick, so I elected for Wilson. Stafford went just three picks later.

6.07 Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR

At this point in the middle of the sixth round, the running backs were nearly gone, so I even though I planned to go heavy with wide receivers, I knew I should add another ball carrier soon. I chose the often disappointing Jonathan Stewart as my RB2. In this format, the value of running backs is lower due to the requirement of only starting one, and Stewart is still relatively young. His value could erupt if DeAngelo Williams finally leaves town.

7.06 Cordarrelle Patterson, WR TBD

In the middle of the seventh round, I feel that each of my players could be penciled in as starters for my team in 2013, so I chose to add a rookie with a lot of upside in former Volunteer wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson. Although Patterson is unlikely to be a fantasy starter this season, he is an ideal player to stash near the top of my bench to see how he develops.

8.07 Reggie Bush, RB DET

It is unusual for me to have three running backs after eight rounds, but the value of veteran Reggie Bush in the mid eighth round was too much to bypass. This draft was held before the free agency period began, so there were still questions about where Bush would be playing in 2013. Once he signed with Detroit, his value increased, making it unlikely he would be available at this point in future drafts.

9.06 Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI

With three running backs and my starting quarterback and tight end in place, it was time to load up on young wide receivers. Bears Alshon Jeffery is probably my favorite of this group, but it was still a tough choice as there were young runners that I liked still available, such as Bernard Pierce and rookie Marcus Lattimore.

10.07 Michael Floyd, WR ARI

Cardinals wide receiver Michael Floyd had a quiet rookie season, but he may not be to blame based on the quarterback play in Arizona last season. Now, Carson Palmer is in town and Floyd could break out this season.

11.06 Rueben Randle, WR NYG

In the eleventh, I added a third consecutive Sophomore wide receiver in the Giants’ Rueben Randle. He did not have much of a role last season, but with role players Domenik Hixon and Ramses Barden gone, look for Randle to take over the third wide receiver spot. I nearly opted for rookie tight end Tyler Eiffert, who I felt was great value this late. Ultimately, my satisfaction with Hernandez as my starter and the depth of the second and third tier of tight ends allowed me to wait to grab a backup.

12.07 Stephen Hill, WR NYJ

I was hoping for Colts young tight end Dwayne Allen to serve as my backup, but he was chosen with the pick directly before mine. Instead, I went with another young wide receiver, the Jets Stephen Hill. In the Jets terrible 2012 season, Hill flashed dynamic skills at times, but was very inconsistent. I expect a larger role for Hill and hopefully a quarterback upgrade in the near future.

13.06 Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA

With a young quarterback as my starter, I would normally look for a reliable veteran to hold down the backup role. Instead, I chose Dolphins Ryan Tannehill, who performed well as a rookie even with limited weapons on offense. Now, he has Mike Wallace and Dustin Keller to throw to and it would be no surprise to see his statistics improve. I went with Tannehill over other quarterbacks like Jay Cutler, Jake Locker and Philip Rivers.

14.07 Chris Ivory, RB NO

At this late point in the draft, I chose a young upside running back. At this point in March, the Saints Chris Ivory had at least a chance of moving on to a new team where he might earn more playing time. Ultimately, that did not happen, but I still like Ivory as a depth running back. Now though, I would use a later pick for him, rather than a fourteenth rounder. In retrospect, I would have preferred another rookie like wide receiver Da’Rick Rogers or quarterback Geno Smith, both of whom went soon after Ivory.

15.06 Mohamed Sanu, WR CIN

Despite having a similar rookie year to many of the other wide receivers I’d already taken, the Bengals Mohamed Sanu has much less value. Sanu has a great chance to earn the second wide receiver spot across from stud AJ Green. In the fifteenth round, I loved this value.

16.07 Fred Davis, TE WAS

Having missed on all of my previous backup tight end targets, I waited until this late point in the draft and was still able to select a player with TE1 upside, the Redskins Fred Davis.  There were other young tight ends still available, but none as proven as Davis.

17.06 Marvin Jones, WR CIN

Just two rounds after acquiring Sanu, I added his teammate Marvin Jones as well. As I said, I think Sanu ultimately wins the number two job in Cincinnati, but this pick covers me in the case Jones surprises and earns a larger role.

18.07 Jordan Cameron, TE CLE

My final three picks were not so much about position need, but rather finding some upside players. With a new tight end friendly coach in Cleveland, Jordan Cameron has a chance to really climb the ranks. I think the fear some owners have had is that the Browns could bring in another tight end as competition, or even to be the starter. At this late point though, there is very little risk on this type of pick.

19.06 Leonard Hankerson, WR WAS

Redskins wide receiver Leonard Hankerson has been a disappointment in each of his first two seasons, but Washington is lacking depth at the position, so he should get another shot at solid playing time in 2013 and clearly has one of the top quarterbacks throwing to him in Robert Griffin III.

20.07 TJ Graham, WR BUF

My final pick was yet another wide receiver, Bills youngster TJ Graham. By the end of his rookie season, Graham had earned a starting role for the Bills and should continue to start opposite Stevie Johnson in the coming season. The Bills also have a new coaching staff and a new quarterback in Kevin Kolb. While I don’t expect Graham to earn a starter’s role for my fantasy team, he does add solid depth.

Now that you have some insight into the who and why of each of my selections, it’s time to see what my ideal starting lineup might look like in 2013. Remember, each team is only required to start one player at each position, along with four flex spots.

Quarterback- Russell Wilson

Running back- CJ Spiller

Wide receiver- Demaryius Thomas

Tight end- Aaron Hernandez

Flex 1- Reggie Bush

Flex 2- Justin Blackmon

Flex 3- Jonathan Stewart

Flex 4- Michael Floyd

Overall, I am pleased with this lineup. It is a difficult task to fill a lineup that has no weaknesses through a startup draft. The trades and waiver moves that occur in the months and even years following an initial draft serve to strengthen the team and fill the gaps. My obvious weak spot of this team is my final flex spot. I do not yet feel that Cardinals wide receiver Michael Floyd can be counted on as a weekly starter. The good news for this team, as is often the case, is that there are several options for that final spot. While it would be surprising if all of my young wide receivers took the next step and became solid fantasy plays, chances are good that at least one of them will. Seeing the end result, a selection of veteran wide receiver Reggie Wayne over the rookie Patterson in the seventh round could have made a big difference with this team.

Next time, I’ll take a deeper look at a team I’m not so proud of, my (least) favorite mock.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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