Cordarrelle Patterson: Proceed With Caution

Doug Veatch Posted On April 13, 2013

With the NFL Draft closing in on us with each passing day, the last piece of the rookie puzzle will finally be revealed to dynasty fanatics in a couple of weeks. It has been well documented that this particular rookie class lacks a truly elite option at almost every offensive position (besides perhaps Eddy Lacy and Tyler Eifert) and from what I’ve seen, player values are all over the board.

I can’t say I’ve ever witnessed such a spectacle in all my years of playing in a dynasty format. If you were to ask seven people who they thought was the number one rated wide receiver in this draft class, there’s a good possibility you may get seven different answers.

The one player whose name I’ve found is consistently in the conversation for the top wide receiver in this class is Cordarrelle Patterson. I think the word “upside” is probably the most accurate way to describe Patterson at this point because his rookie stock is comprised purely on perceived “upside” in my opinion. There is no concrete evidence that suggests Patterson will have a successful NFL career and is a “can’t miss” prospect, even though some people regard him in that fashion.

When I think of drafting Patterson with a top three rookie pick, it literally makes me break out in a cold sweat. He has so many red flags, but will still be drafted very high purely based on “upside,” with a reckless abandonment for what’s right in front of your eyes. So let me enlighten you, in order to aide you in making an educated decision.

Of all the red flags he possesses, for me, the biggest of them all is the lack of big time college experience. If you take into consideration he was a JUCO transfer from Hutchinson Community College, you’d probably assume that playing for such a small program would result in lighting the world on fire, right? Wrong. His statistics (besides total touchdowns) were mediocre at best playing against far inferior competition. In 23 games in a HCC uniform he put a stat line of 113/1832/24 which to me seems very underwhelming. Granted, he did have 398 rushing yards and six touchdowns over the course of his two year JUCO career and was also quite effective as a kickoff and punt returner. So, he does have versatility working in his corner, which could end up being his saving grace.

As we all know, Patterson ended up transferring from HCC to the University of Tennessee where the big boys play – the SEC. In his lone season as a Volunteer, he put up a stat line of 46/778/5, which is very unimpressive for someone regarded so highly in the dynasty community. His sample size is small in the world of big time college football and it’s not like he dominated his adversaries by any means. I’d also like to remind everyone that he had only one elite game all season at UT against Troy in which he put up a gaudy stat line of 9/219/1. However, if you average it out, roughly 24% of his entire 2012 output came in one game, against a weak opponent – not exactly what I look for in a top three dynasty pick.

So what about his rushing and return yards?

Here’s the thing, some NFL team is probably going to draft Patterson as their number one receiving option, so I think that counting on him for return yardage is very far fetched. There are only a few select players in the NFL who can man all three of those spots successfully and two of them are named Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb. I could see him getting a few carries here and there out of the backfield, but not enough to bank on. As far as return duties go, most teams don’t put their number one receiver out on the field to return kicks due to injury risk (i.e. Dez Bryant), so I think you can confidently rule out any possibility of that happening unless he is drafted by a team that already has a couple of solid receiving options.

Another red flag for Patterson is how extremely raw he is. If I had to compare him to another player currently playing in the NFL, it would be Darrius Heyward-Bey. They are roughly the same size, have elite speed, are below average route runners and are not natural hands catchers but rather chest catchers – all of which I’ve witnessed first hand not only during the combine, but also on tape. The evidence is literally at your fingertips.

When DHB came into the league, he was drafted to be “the guy” (unfortunately for him) in an offense that lacked a quality quarterback or any complementary pieces besides Darren McFadden, who at that point was considered a borderline bust. He was also extremely raw and more of a one trick pony rather than a polished wide receiver. I see Patterson coming into the league on similar terms, where he will end up on a team that has a desperate need at wide receiver and will be expected to produce immediately. If that happens, I think it will be very detrimental to his career because the expectations will be sky high.

I believe the best case scenario for Patterson is to step into a situation in which he isn’t expected to a superstar from day one. He has the talent and athletic abilities you can’t teach, but what he needs is time. If he gets afforded the luxury to refine his route running skills, work on the concentration lapses he has from time to time, perfect his ability to beat press coverage and improve on looking the ball into his hands rather than let it get into his body, he could be a very special player. He could also offer huge upside in the return game if your league awards return yardage points.

If upside is what you like to risk the future of your dynasty team on, Patterson definitely has it. I view Patterson as more of a “proceed with caution” prospect, rather than the “can’t miss” prospect some people talk him up as.

Do yourself a favor. If you haven’t already set up a draft board for yourself, do it soon. Time is of the essence. You owe it to yourself to rank these players on a pre/post draft basis and move people up and down your draft boards accordingly. You’re a GM, remember? As a GM, you can’t let one player cloud your judgment and overlook one of the deepest classes of wide receivers we’ve seen in years. Do your due diligence, and ask yourself…

Is the risk worth the reward?

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