2013 Rookie Analysis: Quarterbacks

Jeff Haverlack Posted On April 12, 2013

It’s April and the information is in no small supply. So too are the numerous self-proclaimed experts, rhetoric and bold predictions.

For fantasy junkies, there’s no time like April. Of course, that can be said about May, June, July and all the way until the season officially kicks off. But what is there not to like about the NFL Draft and the opportunity to add a young player to your team to aid in the quest for your league trophy. Whether you’re high on rookie talent or prefer to trade away your picks, it’s still an integral part of the game you need to embrace. As we move closer to the draft, you’ll continue to find all the rookie information you’ll need toward designing your plan. You each will have your own tendencies and strategies and, to that end, let me tell you a bit about mine before launching into my top five players within each skill position.

I love ADP data, but not for the reason that many others do. I like the data because it’s a barometer for herd mentality, not necessarily a gauge of talent. Anyone can call themselves an expert. And don’t think for a second that because someone has a blog, site or YouTube channel that they are an expert. If you’re going to follow individuals who consider themselves to be experts in the area of rookie analysis, do your best to ensure they are doing the work behind the scenes to qualify for that title and not simply parroting others’ comments. For myself, I leave the term expert for others to worry about. I’m an avid watcher of film anywhere I can get it, not just the highlight reels but also the (for lack of a better term) lowlight reel. I also watch indirect game tape in which the player I’m focused on isn’t the primary focus – I’ve found it’s a great way to find out how that player blocks, runs routes when not the primary receiver, pass defends or moves when the play is going away from him. The point here is that before using another’s analysis for purposes of generating your own valuation, make sure you can trust your source. I’ts obvious that many out there, individuals as well as sites touting rookie information are simply relaying what other sites have found without doing their own work.

You need to know the ADP data for each individual draft. The herd mentality at work is very visible in these drafts and you must understand where your targeted players are going off the board. Having the fifth pick in the draft, but understanding you can get your player at nine can be a valuable tool if you’re willing to risk trading back. If you’re in dire need of a particular position, but it’s likely your targeted player is going off the board a pick or two ahead of your own, maybe a trade up is your best course of action. Remember the ADP of any draft isn’t necessarily a gauge of talent as much as it is a gauge of popular opinion, warranted or not. Your due-diligence and hard work will pay off.

One final note on rookie rankings and analysis. You’ve got some of the best minds in the format here at DLF working for you. Being completely objective, I am constantly amazed at the amount of work, knowledge and passion our writers put into their content. We won’t always agree on players or our rankings, but you should not want us to. We owe it to you to do our own work and formulate our own opinions. We have high standards for what makes it on the site and you, our reader, ultimately will determine which writers and sites will earn your trust.

We have a GREAT tool for you to do your own analysis and you’ll find it here.

Just over a year ago I looked at rookie draft history of one of my primary dynasty leagues beginning in 2004 toward determining some likelihood of rookie success based upon chosen fantasy round. You can look back on that article here.

Let’s get started.

Quarterbacks

It’s still three weeks away from the draft, but it’s been beaten to death that this quarterback class leaves a lot to be desired. Coming off the heels of 2012’s class, it’s even more disappointing. But let the talking heads keep driving that home. Just because there isn’t an RGIII or Andrew Luck in this year’s draft doesn’t mean there aren’t players who won’t perform given both time and opportunity. Don’t forget history has shown us the first quarterback off the board is successful in the NFL in a majority of cases. Even the second quarterback selected has a decent success rate. For myself, when analyzing quarterbacks, I like to look at four primary characteristics:

1) Footwork/Mechanics

2) Arm Strength

3) Intelligence/Decision-Making and

4) Accuracy

I can find many players who have had success without all four of these traits, but if you find a quarterback that has all four, you’re way ahead of the game. Beyond these, give me also Work Ethic, Mobility, Size and Leadership.

I was very high on Colin Kaepernick because of the three primary traits, primarily strength and intelligence. I wasn’t high on Jamarcus Russell, Mark Sanchez, Matt Leinart, Jake Locker or Blaine Gabbert because of critical deficits. And recall that Cam Newton was shunned almost entirely by the fantasy community after being drafted by Carolina. Point here is don’t get too caught up in absolute statements about a quarterback as to where they should or should not be taken. If you have a dire need at quarterback and can’t land one in a trade, the first quarterback off the board is your best bet. In certain years, however, it’s best not to force the pick if you have other alternatives and 2013 is seemingly one of those years.

1. Geno Smith
West Virginia
6’2″/218 Lbs.

Everyone has heard the criticism about Smith’s lack of accuracy. Any way you stack it, while in West Virginia’s system, Smith never completed less than 65% of his passes and finished with a 71.2% completion percentage in his senior year. Accuracy concerns have been overblown to a large degree. Pop on the tape of his Senior year and you will see balls maddeningly floating beyond receivers, too wide or otherwise off the mark. But you can’t call Smith completely inaccurate as a quarterback. He does have a tendency to throw off his back foot which can cause the ball to sail, but in other throws he’s comfortable on the balls of his feet with good weight transfer and ball position.

Smith has plenty of velocity and intelligence and better than adequate agility and mobility. He’s not an overly dynamic quarterback, but has a skill set that will provide for immediate opportunity at the next level – exactly what you hope for in a non-elite prospect in your fantasy draft. I don’t have him as a top five selection in fantasy unless you have no other alternatives at the position. He’s best suited as a pick in the seven-to-ten range as the first quarterback off the board or even later if the quarterback talent if your league is well distributed.

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2. E.J. Manuel
Florida St.
6’5″/237 Lbs.

Manuel is one of those quarterbacks who I’ve warmed up to the more tape I watch. He’s relatively accurate, has a short, compact and quick throwing motion, excellent mobility with good vision and feel but his strongest asset is his quick driving throws. He generates superior velocity with a great weight transfer. Footwork on many of his drop backs is a bit sloppy and he primarily sets up in a shotgun formation, but all of these items are very much expected from collegiate prospects. He may have the strongest arm in the class or is certainly at least in the top three. Footwork, decision making and development of touch will be of primary importance in his development.

With recent tape review, Manuel continues to climb and now sits squarely as my second ranked quarterback in this year’s rookie class. It will not surprise me to see Manuel off the board by the mid second round considering the need of multiple teams. The more I watch him, the more I see one of my favorite players, Daunte Culpepper.

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3. Matt Barkley
USC
6’2″/227 Lbs.

Barkley is a tough quarterback to project. On the field and in the pocket he has the poise and obvious intelligence as to where the ball needs to be put to obtain the best result. His footwork appears relatively clean as does his release. Much like Matt Leinart, however, Barkley’s arm strength is likely to be problematic in the NFL. On deeper passes, he shows good touch and enough strength to lead his receiver into space. But in the NFL, a quarterback must display strength on the intermediate and deeper out patterns and this is where he tends to struggle. Strangely enough, not every one of these routes displays poor strength. In many of these throws, velocity and trajectory are passable. But too many float and are not driven. In the NFL, floating passes will find you on the bench in a hurry.

There’s no knock on Barkley as far as leadership and intelligence go. Mechanical deficits are going to limit his upside and I would rank him a bit below, or near the same level, as Christian Ponder and Andy Dalton. In the right system with a capable slot receiver, Barkley may have a chance to work to his strengths and minimize those listed deficits.

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4. Ryan Nassib
Syracuse
6’2″/227 Lbs.

Ryan “Happy Feet” Nassib (that’s my own nickname) could fall either way in the NFL. He’s a bit under-sized at 6’2″, but in the year following Russell Wilson’s rise to stardom, I risk getting flamed by using that phrase. Still, he is undersized by prototypical standards, although 6’2″ is passable should the quarterback stand tall in the pocket, have pocket presence and contain enough arm strength to deliver the ball on all routes. In Nassib’s case, he has most of what is needed, save a solid foundation in the pocket and mediocre decision making.

Nassib grossly stretches the desire for quarterbacks with a good foundation in the lower half of their body while in the pocket, remaining coiled to deliver a ball with velocity and accuracy via good footwork and stance. Nassib has a bad tendency to hop in and out his dropbacks and while set within the pocket. Whether he does or doesn’t, he possesses a rocket arm with a relatively compact delivery that gets the ball to its destination in a hurry. His completion percentage is a direct reflection of how well he keeps his foundation under him and he’ll be a project at the next level.

Decision-making is questionable which is not uncommon with quarterbacks possessing exceptional arm strength. He’ll need a good quarterback coach and a friendly system with play-makers while developing.

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5. Mike Glennon
N.C. State
6’7″/225 Lbs.

I continue to be intrigued by the upside of Mike Glennon, but I’m not exactly sure why. There’s enough raw talent present with obvious arm strength along with a presence that has my gut screaming at me. When evaluating rookies, I’ve learned to trust my gut and I’ve found that presence (not pocket presence) and “it” factor go a long way in budding NFL stars. But beyond these traits, Glennon has enough on the other side of the scale the analytical side of me just can’t ignore.

While he does possess significant arm strength, size and pro-style system experience, he has negatives that must be addressed at the next level. His footwork is often clumsy and likely attributed to his size. He often looks as if he’s running in mud when sliding in the pocket or backpedaling. Like Ryan Nassib above, he often is baited into bad decisions trying to rely upon his arm strength to fit the ball into poor situations. Within the pocket, he seems nervous and often doesn’t complete his progression before dumping the ball off.

Both he and Nassib are likely third round dynasty selections at best, depending on situation.

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6. Tyler Bray
Tennessee
6’6″/232 Lbs.

Tennessee’s Tyler Bray is as difficult to analyze as any fringe NFL quarterback I’ve seen. If not for the pure talent on many levels, he’d be all too easy to dismiss. He played with two first round capable NFL receivers in Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Hunter and it’s hard to forecast whether this fact helped his receivers more or if, perhaps, the presence of these receivers elevated Bray’s visibility. Any way you slice it, Bray has a big arm and generates a lot of velocity on his throws. In other words. there’s no question he has an NFL capable arm. Beyond his arm, plenty of issues exist.

Because of the cannon attached to his shoulder, it would seem Bray’s decision-making capability is flawed. When watching any tape, you see moments of magic and moments of misery. While he stands tall in the pocket, he seems slow in his assessment of the game in motion and is consistently late or wide on his throws due to his lack of recognition. This, when compared with the fact that he often throws off of his back foot, relying again on his arm strength and doesn’t consistently deliver his passes over-the-top makes him wildly erratic. When he sets his feet, trusts the pocket and utilizes good weight transfer, he delivers crisp balls in catchable locations. On any given play he looks like a starting NFL quarterback or an undrafted free agent.

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7. Tyler Wilson
Arkansas
6’2″/218 Lbs.

Wilson is one of my favorite quarterbacks in this year’s rookie class. He’s not as dynamic or purely talented as a few of the other names on this list but what he doesn’t possess in those areas, he makes up for with leadership, toughness and a relatively solid skill-set. The linked video here isn’t his best tape, but came against a very good South Carolina defense that pressured him all day. I don’t like to rely of tape from cupcake match-ups when evaluating quarterback talent. Seeing how a young quarterback handles adversity, collapsing pockets, corner blitzes and a superior opponent can tell you far more than simply pitch-catch drills against lesser competition.

Wilson isn’t going to leap off the page but he’s solid across the board and will be a mid-round selection with a lot of upside for a team with an accomplished quarterback coach and time. He’s got enough of all the traits I look for to be successful. Of course, so did Kyle Boller.

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?. Matt Scott
Arizona
6’2″/213Lbs.

No the “?” is not a mistake. I can’t list Scott as my eighth best quarterback at this point because he’s a huge project and may very well go undrafted. He’s got a big arm but shows nice touch on many of his throws. He does tend to rely on his arm strength and doesn’t show an acute ability to manage his progressions, instead knowing where the ball is to go on most plays and getting it there quickly. He also tends to be rather statuesque in the pocket, stiff in his mechanics through the ball and inconsistent mechanically overall. But given his mobility and the arm strength to make all the throws in the NFL, including perhaps the best ball on short/intermediate out routes of this year’s class, he’s certain to have caught the eye of NFL scouts.

What I like best about Scott is his competitive nature and toughness. He’s got enough to like as a quarterback, but his real value comes as a football player. That’s a broad definition but football players can play and at the quarterback position, mechanics and fundamentals aren’t the only variables in the equation. The second video below really showcases his tenacity and his will to win. There’s a little Russell Wilson in the 6’2″ Scott.

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And watch this performance vs. the very tough Stanford defense

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Draft Strategy

It’s an uninspiring group for fantasy purposes. There will undoubtedly be quality field generals from this draft five years from now, but forecasting which of this group will be on top is a difficult proposition. In fantasy, especially in the first round, if you are to forego the wide receiver and running back positions to select a quarterback, you need to feel good about the selection. The 2013 class doesn’t offer a passer that meets this need. Geno Smith is clearly the best of the lot, but with elite quarterbacks typically going off the board in the first five picks in fantasy drafts, a quarterback like Smith likely won’t be selected until the bottom half of the first round and then only by very needy teams.

If you are in a 12 team or greater league and in need of a quarterback, you can select Smith late in the first round if given the opportunity – it’s a good spot to take a signal caller with an uncertain future. As for the remaining quarterbacks in this year’s class, the second one will likely not go off the board until the late second round and most will be later round rookie picks. Talent-wise, this year’s rookie quarterbacks are a QB3/QB4 group outside of Geno Smith’s QB2/QB3 ranking.

Next up: Running Backs

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Jeff Haverlack

Co-Founder at Dynasty League Football

Appreciative husband and proud father who poorly attempts to balance family life with his passion for creating the largest, most helpful and most impactful fantasy community on the planet! DLF was created for the community and we're committed to each member within it! Hope anyone playing this great game will call DLF home in some way!

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff

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