The Running Back Value Index: Part Two

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In part one, I introduced you to the methodology behind my ranking system, followed by the presentation of the rankings themselves.  In part two, I want to compare the Value Index to the results of the March ADP data for the running back position.  So diving right into it, let’s consider the table below, where the two data sets are juxtaposed:

The right-hand column depicts the ranking change in terms of the ADP value minus the Index value.  Starting with those who gained value and finishing with those who lost value, I want to highlight the biggest (and most pertinent) movers and shakers.

Risers

Joique Bell, RB DET

ADP Value: RB52

Index Value: RB9

Change: +43

Rationale:  The Detroit running back made the most of his 134 touches in the 2012 season, finishing as the PPR RB23.  His sparse career usage and low touchdown dependence makes him the Detroit backup to own behind Reggie Bush.

Jonathan Dwyer, RB PIT

ADP Value: RB54

Index Value: RB16

Change: +38

Rationale:  Though Dwyer didn’t exactly put a stranglehold on the starting job last year, his combination of age, usage and low touchdown dependence make him an attractive flyer.

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB ATL

ADP Value: RB31

Index Value: RB3

Change: +28

Rationale:  Though Rodgers likely lacks the size and ability to handle a full load, he carried RB3 value in 2012 as the Falcons’ third down back.  Given his youth and meager workload, there’s no reason he can’t offer that same upside for the next five-to-seven years.

Knowshon Moreno, RB DEN

ADP Value: RB43

Index Value: RB19

Change: +24

Rationale:  For all the hate Moreno receives, when fully healthy, his average PPR finish is the RB24 – a low-end RB2 in most league formats.  Factoring in workload and touchdown dependence, Moreno is a prime candidate for a late-career blossoming.

Daniel Thomas, RB MIA

ADP Value: RB55

Index Value: RB33

Change: +22

Rationale:  I’m not a personal believer in Thomas, but he can provide a youthful option with proven end-of-the-bench RB4 ability.

Daryl Richardson, RB STL

ADP Value: RB30

Index Value: RB10

Change: +20

Rationale:  Richardson received high marks for scoring all of his fantasy points without the benefit of a single touchdown.  Even if he splits carries, his value increases exponentially if he can start finding the end zone.

Shonn Greene, RB TEN

ADP Value: RB53

Index Value: RB34

Change: +19

Rationale:  Chalk this one up to Greene “gaming” the system due to a lack of circumstantial awareness.  Though his fantasy production surprisingly didn’t come from a reliance on touchdowns as a New York Jet, that’s likely all he has to look forward to in Tennessee behind Chris Johnson.

Bilal Powell, RB NYJ

ADP Value: RB49

Index Value: RB34

Change: +15

Rationale:  Like Bell, Powell was another third down back who performed reasonably well despite low usage.  With lots of tread left on his tires, there’s no reason he can’t sustain that type of value for the foreseeable future.

Ryan Mathews, RB SD

ADP Value: RB19

Index Value: RB6

Change: +13

Rationale:  Mathews benefits from youth, low workload and an extremely low dependence on touchdowns.  In fact, he finished as a middle of the road RB3 in 2012 despite missing four games and only scoring once.  If healthy, he stands to rehabilitate his value.

Bryce Brown, RB PHI; Bernard Pierce, RB BAL and Vick Ballard, RB IND

ADP Value: RB35, RB28, RB25

Index Value: RB22, RB22, RB13

Change: +13, +6, +12

Rationale:  Three 2012 rookies who displayed playmaking skills not predicated upon scoring touchdowns and have long futures ahead of them based on the data.

DeMarco Murray, RB DAL

ADP Value: RB14

Index Value: RB3

Change: +11

Rationale:  This isn’t too surprising, as Murray’s skills have always been overshadowed by his injuries.  If he can stay healthy, his upside far outweighs his ADP.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB ARI

ADP Value: RB37

Index Value: RB26

Change: +11

Rationale:  Similar to Moreno, Mendenhall is an underrated career RB2 who’s had some bad luck with injuries lately.  Due to a combination of age and workload, he’s a sneaky bet for continued under-the-radar production.

Reggie Bush, RB DET

ADP Value: RB24

Index Value: RB18

Change: +6

Rationale:  Even without knowledge of his new deal with the Lions, the Index saw Bush as a value pick in PPR formats.  Bush has a relatively low workload for his age and a low dependence on touchdowns.

Jamaal Charles, RB KC and CJ Spiller, RB BUF

ADP Value: RB8, RB5

Index Value: RB3, RB1

Change: +5, +4

Rationale:  The smallest changes could yield the biggest results, as Charles and Spiller jump to the head of the running back pack.  Both players combine youth, small workloads and low dependencies on touchdowns with stellar past performances.  They’re both darkhorse picks for overall RB1 production over the course of the next few years.

Fallers

David Wilson, RB NYG and Lamar Miller, RB MIA

ADP Value: RB12, RB18

Index Value: RB49, RB38

Change: -37, -20

Rationale:  Well gentlemen, the Hype Train has reached the platform, and it’s time for you two to disembark.  I understand the rationale for selecting Wilson and Miller with high picks and trusting their upside comes to the forefront, but there’s just no evidence to support it.  They’re both young and fresh, but Miller hardly saw playing time in 2012, and Wilson relied far too much on touchdowns – I wouldn’t touch them at their current ADP’s.

Adrian Peterson, RB MIN and Arian Foster, RB HOU

ADP Value: RB1, RB4

Index Value: RB34, RB19

Change: -33, -15

Rationale:  These two are at the point in their respective careers where age and workload may begin to overshadow talent.  Peterson’s robust career resume is superseded only by a heavy workload and Foster is coming off a 2012 season where he touched the ball a whopping 460 times, including playoffs. Furthermore, if their visits to the end zone suffer, so will their fantasy output.  Obviously they won’t get drafted anywhere near this low, but their upside potential may have met the metaphorical glass ceiling.

Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA

ADP Value: RB9

Index Value: RB29

Change: -20

Rationale:  I think this is another case where the Index may have overstepped its bounds.  The Beast Mode of the past two years has wildly outperformed this value, but age, workload and touchdown reliance are all beginning to approach red-flag territory.

Mark Ingram, RB NO

ADP Value: RB27

Index Value: RB46

Change: -19

Rationale:  At what point is it okay to consider Ingram a bust?  Though he has youth and workload on his side, at this stage in his career he’s been nothing but a touchdown-dependent, middle of the road RB4.  And to think, the Index didn’t even know he’s stuck in a rotation with four other running backs!

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB CIN and Andre Brown, RB NYG

ADP Value: RB 34, RB39

Index Value: RB49, RB53

Change: -15, -14

Rationale:  A pair of ball carriers riddled with red flags and a heavy reliance on finding the end zone.  The Law Firm will be 28 when the 2013 season begins, while Brown has yet to stay healthy enough to even post RB3 numbers.  As an aside, the Index apparently believes that the 2013 New York Giants’ backfield is the most overhyped in the NFL.

Ryan Williams, RB ARI and Shane Vereen, RB NE

ADP Value: RB29, RB40

Index Value: RB42, RB53

Change: -13, -13

Rationale:  Potentially talented running backs with injury issues.  They’re hard to predict as neither has put together a full season of data, so err on the side of caution.

Frank Gore, RB SF and Maurice Jones-Drew, RB JAX

ADP Value: RB21, RB17

Index Value: RB34, RB27

Change: -13, -10

Rationale:  Both are aging options who likely won’t perform at high levels long enough to justify an early draft pick.

Darren McFadden, RB OAK and Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR

ADP Value: RB15, RB22

Index Value: RB28, RB29

Change: -13, -7

Rationale:  Be it due to persistent injury (McFadden) or lack of opportunity (Stewart), these two teases haven’t proven enough to be selected as early as the ADP suggests.

Ray Rice, RB BAL

ADP Value: RB6

Index Value: RB13

Change: -7

Rationale:  The biggest black mark on Rice’s resume is his usage, which is approaching 1,800 career touches.  He should still post RB1-type numbers, but likely more of the low-end variety.

Trent Richardson, RB CLE

ADP Value: RB2

Index Value: RB7

Change: -5

Rationale:  This is only notable because he’s currently being selected as the number-two overall running back according the ADP data.  Age and workload are big pluses, but he needs to perform better outside of the red zone.  Next year could go a long way towards establishing any type of potential fantasy dominance.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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