The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

vernon_davis

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) In a ten-team, half-PPR league where we start two running backs, two receivers and a FLEX, I‘ve been offered Demaryius Thomas and the rookie 1.05 pick for Ray Rice.  I have pretty decent running backs with Rice, Ryan Mathews, Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller and Bernard Pierce, among others.  However, my receivers are soft with Hakeem Nicks, Torrey Smith, Mohammed Sanu, Cecil Shorts and Rod Streater.  Is this a good trade for me, or should I shop Smith and keep Rice since I don’t really like having two starters on the same team?Mick in CA

Though Demaryius Thomas is an extremely attractive dynasty asset, (according to the March ADP data he’s being valued as the overall WR5 and an early second round pick), your league dynamic is giving me pause.  In smaller leagues with shallow receiver requirements, the position is inherently devalued.  Let’s look at it this way – even if every owner chose to play a receiver at the FLEX position (a highly unlikely proposition), that still means only a maximum of 30 pass-catchers could potentially lay claim to starting positions in any given week.  As the number of fantasy-relevant wideouts far exceeds that number, the cost for the position is subsequently driven way down, in a classic “supply and demand” scenario.

Conversely, elite running backs (especially those who average four receptions per game like Rice) should come at a premium and carry borderline prohibitively expensive price tags.  In fact, even with the threat of soon-to-be sophomore Bernard Pierce (who you already own) siphoning carries, Rice is still being drafted as a late first-round pick in startup mock drafts.  He’s locked and loaded as a mid-level RB1 for the next two to three years, at a minimum.

I’m also in disagreement with you about the state of your stable of ball carriers.  Though Richardson is ranked as the overall dynasty RB1, you have little more than glorified question marks behind he and Rice.  Ryan Mathews, though talented, has been little more than an injury-prone tease during his three years in the league, and is likely to lose third-down duties.  Despite Lamar Miller’s value ballooning to the point of explosion, he has done next to nothing to justify it.  I think you still need Rice.

With all that said, a lack of trustworthy studs necessitates an upgrade to your receiving corps.  Therefore, I think your best move is to cash in on Miller’s out-of-control hype by coupling him with Smith to acquire a true WR1.  Some of the players I’d look to obtain include Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Crabtree and Randall Cobb (though you may need to include a draft pick for the latter).  By doing this, you’ll be able to stock one cupboard without leaving the other bare, thereby improving the overall quality and depth of your team.

2.) Can you discuss Vernon Davis’ future outlook?  It is an absolute mystery how he hasn’t become a receiving monster on a team with only one starting caliber receiver, having shown what a mismatch he can be when used properly.  What does the San Francisco brain trust see or not see that they let him go unused as a weapon for long lengths of time?Justin in MO

While I won’t attempt to probe the psyche of Jim Harbaugh (I imagine to do so would require ten cups of coffee and a shot of adrenaline, followed by electroshock therapy and a course in exuberant handshaking), I agree that Davis’ sporadic usage has been mystifying.  Ever since Colin Kaepernick took over as the starting quarterback in week 11, Davis’ play bottomed out.  After scoring 20 points (standard PPR) against the Bears, the following six weeks saw the 49ers’ tight end average a measly 1.7 points per game.

However, Davis returned with a flourish in the playoffs, catching 12 passes for 254 yards and a touchdown across the ‘Niners three postseason contests.  Though he’s clearly fallen behind receiver Michael Crabtree in the pecking order, Davis still operated as San Francisco’s second most targeted pass catcher.  It’s entirely possible that Davis and Kaepernick simply required more time to get on the same page.

Also working in Davis’ favor is the departure of fellow tight end Delanie Walker, who averaged only 0.5 fewer targets per game (3.3 to 3.8) than his more decorated positional cohort during Kaepernick’s tenure as starter.  San Francisco’s third-string tight end, Garrett Celek, has a paltry four career receptions to his name, and doesn’t pose any kind of immediate threat.  On an offense utterly devoid of proven receiving threats, Davis should have his opportunities in 2013.

Ultimately, as a still dangerous on-the-field mismatch with a falling stock, Davis is a solid offseason “buy” or “hold.”  However, it’s imperative to remember the 49ers ran the ball on 53% of their offensive plays in 2012 and attempted the second-fewest passes in the league, so expectations should be tempered.  Though it’s fair to hope Davis will settle in as a mid-range TE1, the days of him functioning as a consistent high-end option are likely behind us.

3.) In a twelve-team non-PPR league, would you trade Antonio Brown, Jonathan Stewart, Mark Sanchez and a 2014 second round pick for the 2013 1.3 and three throw-in players?Big Rev in NJ

Despite the constant pestering of my friends, I don’t watch The Walking Dead on AMC.  However, even with my limited knowledge of the show, I imagine whatever affliction caused the zombie apocalypse can still be trumped by the current outbreak of the dreaded Rookie Fever In fact, I believe we’re dealing with a case in this very question.

According to the ADP data, both Brown and Stewart are currently being selected before the third rookie (University of California wide receiver Keenan Allen) goes off the board.  Though it’s always fun and exciting to imagine the upside rookies can bring, doing so at the expense of proven production can lead to a dynasty owner’s downfall if that potential goes unrealized.  Since it’s impossible to know in advance if that will happen, it becomes crucial to focus on the veterans you’d be losing.

Though he’s only been in the league for three years, Antonio Brown already sports two finishes in the top-32 of yearly PPR scoring amongst receivers, and stands to prosper from being quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s number one option in 2013.  Jonathan Stewart, though less successful recently, still has the factors of age and cumulative workload on his side, and should benefit from a re-dedication to the power running game.  Being able to say you no longer own Mark Sanchez, while enticing, doesn’t swing the deal for me.  I think you should stand pat, and all dynasty owners should take this as a cautionary tale as to just how difficult it can be to acquire rookie picks at this point in the off-season.

4.) This is the craziest idea I’ve had, but since I have Drew Brees, Colin Kaepernick and Carson Palmer at quarterback in a ten-team league, would you consider trading Brees before he gets older and loses his value?Dave in IN

While I don’t think your idea is necessarily crazy, I don’t believe it’s advisable.  In a shallow ten-team league, you’re going to want every advantage possible, due to the likelihood that most other teams will also have elite options at quarterback.  Brees can offer exactly that.

Despite being 34 years old, Brees is still playing at a high level.  Over the past five years, his average player rank has been the QB1.6, including three finishes as the top overall fantasy signal caller.  With quarterbacks recently playing well into their late thirties (ex. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady), there’s no reason a healthy Brees can’t replicate those statistics for the next several years.  The return of head coach Sean Payton following a one-year “Bountygate” absence only serves to bolster that likelihood.

Speaking to your backups, I don’t believe they can replicate that type of output.  Though Kaepernick possesses a higher ceiling due to his running ability, he only has ten games of starting experience (including playoffs) to his name.  With an entire off-season to game plan, it’s possible San Francisco’s opponents will have a better understanding of how to defend against his mobility.  Palmer, despite reigning supreme as the undisputed King of Garbage Time, is a sitting duck behind Arizona’s rag-tag offensive line.  Even if he does make it through the entire 2013 season, he might very well decide to quit on his team for the third time in his career!  There’s just not enough certainty there to feel comfortable losing Brees’ plug-and-play ability.

Now, to play Devil’s Advocate, all the above is operating under the assumption that you have a contending team.  If you find yourself in a rebuilding phase, I’d attempt to trade Brees for a collection of younger players and draft picks.  Regardless, I believe you’re underestimating Brees and the longevity of the quarterback position, and think he can still serve as your team’s centerpiece for years to come.

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eric hardter