Free Agency Winners: Quarterbacks and Running Backs

Jeff Haverlack

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We’ve already reviewed the free agency losers, so now we take a look at some players who were clear winners based on the movement in free agency this year. These players either signed on in to play in a desirable location in relation to their fantasy value or had someone who was clogging the depth chart ahead of them move on to greener pastures.

Let’s take an in-depth look at each of these “Free Agency Winners” from the quarterback and running back positions to gauge their current value in dynasty leagues. We’ll go position by position and detail the events that have created some positive vibes for dynasty owners.

Quarterbacks

Tony Romo, QB DAL

Listen, we’ve all heard the dollars thrown at Tony Romo.  We all know about his single playoff win.  But the fact is, he’s a very good quarterback 80% of the time and with many teams in the NFL scraping the bottom of the barrel in search of a relevant signal caller, it’s hard to fault Jerry Jones for locking up Romo and ensuring that they don’t become the next Kansas City, Cleveland, Arizona, Buffalo or Oakland.  Now Romo can just focus on winning games without having to worry about his next contract.

Kevin Kolb, QB BUF

Kolb recently appeared in our losers article, but recently signing in Buffalo, he receives a modicum of greater value in that he has a team to lead.  The problem for Kolb is that he’s still the same quarterback he’s always been, he’s at the helm of the 25th ranked passing offense and he’s playing in a brutal city for quarterbacks.  There’s little reason to get excited about Kolb for any other reason than he’s the odds-on favorite to be under center come week one.  If the Bills can get a noteworthy second receiver via the draft, perhaps there’s a chance.  Forgive us if we believe it when we see it.

Carson Palmer, QB ARI

On the surface, it looks like a winning situation for Palmer as he lands in the desert of Arizona.  He’ll be throwing to one of the best receivers to ever lace them up in Larry Fitzgerald, up and coming receiver Michael Floyd and now with recently acquired Rashard Mendenhall in the backfield.  The problem exists that the Cardinals were last in the league in rushing yards and and 28th overall in passing in 2012, largely due to a completely inept offensive line.  Until acquiring Palmer, the Cardinals were almost a sure bet to burn their early first round selection in the 2013 NFL draft on a quarterback (in my estimation) but now can turn their attention toward securing a franchise left tackle.  I like the potential of Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson.  Now if they could draft four more of him, they’d be set.

Alex Smith, QB KC

Smith finally goes to a team that is excited to have him.  After numerous years of instability in San Francisco, new head coach Andy Reid quickly ushered Matt Cassell out of Kansas City, something that should have happened years ago, and brought in the markedly better Smith.  He’s by no means gifted in any one category but can be a capable game manager.  With the Chiefs bringing back Dwayne Bowe and Tony Moeaki now fully healthy, Reid can begin the rebuilding campaign in earnest.  They’re in dire need for a second receiver to step up, but should  third year player Jonathan Baldwin or the aging-but-capable Donny Avery be noteworthy with their play, Alex Smith should see more success than his recent predecessors.

Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA

Sometimes it’s possible to be a winner without moving teams.  In this case, the addition of receiver Mike Wallace gives Ryan Tannehill the weapon that was missing in 2012.  I’m not overly confident that Wallace can be in Miami what he wasn’t in Pittsburgh, a consistent chain-moving threat, but he still has the ability to take the top off of defenses and he’ll be given every opportunity to become more of a play-maker in the short and intermediate passing game as well.  Brian Hartline is returning and should Davone Bess or a first round rookie bring a presence to the slot receiver role, there will be enough present to be mildly excited about Tannehill’s potential growth in 2013.

Joe Flacco, QB BAL

Flacco played his cards perfectly in 2012, keeping his mouth tightly shut while maximizing his value to the organization by winning the Super Bowl.  It doesn’t get any better than that.  His guaranteed money was eclipsed by Tony Romo’s and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers will soon become the highest paid player in the NFL, but for Joe Flacco, there won’t be any distractions in 2013 as they seek to repeat.  How will the Ravens address the loss of Anquan Boldin?

Matt Flynn, QB OAK

I hesitate to call Flynn a “winner” in this case, but he’s deserving as he’ll take over a struggling Raiders club from the departed Carson Palmer.  Plenty of questions surround Flynn and the Black Hole has been every bit of just that, a black hole.  Now having lost tight end Brandon Myers and the underwhelming Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland needs to find capable weapons in the passing game.  We haven’t seen enough from Flynn to believe he has the ability to take a team like the Raiders upon his shoulders, but he’ll get a chance nonetheless.

Chase Daniel, QB KC

We’ve already mentioned Alex Smith, but Daniel could also be considered a free agency winner as well. There’s little doubt Smith isn’t the long term answer for the Chiefs and Daniel received a nice little payday for a backup quarterback, making him one to watch in the off-season. While he won’t be a true threat to Smith’s starting job, it’s quite possible he could be groomed to be the Chiefs next signal caller. You could do worse for a developmental prospect on your dynasty roster.

Running Backs

jackson

Steven Jackson, RB ATL

Jackson opted out of his deal in St. Louis and had his choice between two powerhouses in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers and the Atlanta Falcons.  Ultimately Atlanta secured his services as he takes over for the departed Michael Turner.  He’s sure to be viable in 2013 and as long as he maintains a healthy status, he’ll get a material workload.  We love the addition and Jackson’s prospects.

Reggie Bush, RB DET

I can’t call a move to Detroit an upgrade until I see how he’s used.  The presence of Calvin Johnson and a capable Matt Stafford should provide running lanes not seen in Miami, but Detroit hasn’t produced a meaningful consistent starter at the position since James Stewart.   I dubbed Detroit “where running backs go to die” following the failure of Kevin Jones and Bush has the body and injury history to keep that legacy alive.  It’s a minor upgrade in his value in that the coaching staff is committed to using him as he was in New Orleans, which should be a boon to coaches that own him in PPR formats.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB ARI

Mendy is the type of back that Arizona needs, big, elusive enough and with the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.  The problem is that the Cardinals have experienced dismal offensive line play and rank dead last in rushing offense.  I believe Mendenhall is talented enough to pull them off the bottom, but he’s not dynamic enough to resurrect the rushing attack.  For fantasy owners though, it’s a clear upgrade in that he’ll primarily be a three down back.  Three downs behind that offensive line is anything but an inspiring proposition.

Mike Goodson, RB NYJ

If not for a dubious injury history, Goodson would be a much higher profile prospect in 2013.  Even still, his presence in New York should be enough to create some level excitement.  Goodson is a productive, dynamic runner with the capability to take it the distance with every touch.  He’s fast enough to get to the corners and is at his best out of the backfield in the passing game.  If he’s healthy, he’ll be the leading back for the Jets when 2013 winds to a close.  Bilal Powell just doesn’t possess the dynamic. If he’s not healthy, it will be like every other year in his short professional career thus far.  He’s a great buy-low candidate in the possibility that the Jets have lightning in a bottle.

Shane Vereen, RB NE

Vereen is all set to have a greater role in the offense now that Danny Woodhead has signed on with the Chargers. With Woodhead out of the way, Vereen should have little problem carving out playing time in the explosive offense of the Patriots. While not currently a threat to Stevan Ridley’s job as the Pats RB1, Vereen has shown enough to get dynasty owners excited. If he can stay healthy, he has the opportunity for a nice uptick in production and dynasty value this season.

DuJuan Harris, RB GB

Amazingly, Harris is still on top of the depth chart in Green Bay this deep into the free agency period. While the Packers could easily bring in a rookie running back to compete with Harris for carries, it’s hard not to like his prospects a little more after the Packers failed to land a big name player like Steven Jackson. Stay tuned on this one.

jeff haverlack