Successful Running Back Measurement Analysis: 2013 Rookies

Jacob Feldman

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At the end of every February, hundreds of NFL coaches, scouts, doctors and staff members flock to Indianapolis. At the same time, die hard football fans start to show the effects of rookie fever and flock to their TVs to set their DVRs for the NFL Combine.

When you stop to think about it, it really is a strange phenomenon.

We watch these young men run, jump, and lift over and over again. They get measured like prize cattle and prodded by team doctors to see if they fit the bill. The only issue is no one really knows exactly what to look for in these measurements. Some NFL teams are known to have a strong affinity for one measurement over the others (for example, Al Davis’ Raiders and 40 yard dash times) and there are a ton of commonly held beliefs such as quarterbacks needing to be 6’2” or taller to succeed (just ask Russell Wilson). What exactly does the combine mean to us, the dynasty fantasy footballer? Sure, faster and bigger is better. But the question that I’ve always had is exactly how fast is fast enough? Is it just a fast 40 or do I need to look at cone, shuttle, ten yard splits, and everything else too?

A few months back, I took a look at the running backs who are currently in the NFL and used the top 20 running backs from last season to help build the mold for what a top running back in today’s NFL actually looks like. Data from their rookie combines were then gathered and analyzed much the same way the data for the wide receivers has been done both this season and last season. In case you missed some of the previous work, take a look at the 2013 rookie wide receivers and the current NFL running backs.

In case you missed it or just don’t want to look back at it, here is a quick summary of what was found from the current NFL running backs.

The backs were evaluated in the following nine areas:

1)      Body Mass Index (BMI) – Used instead of height and weight separately because it is more the build that matters for a running back.

2)      Speed Score – A measurement developed by Football Outsiders to simulate the force a back runs with. Bigger backs don’t need to run quite as fast as smaller ones.

3)      40 yard dash time – To look at “long speed”

4)      10 yard dash split – To look at acceleration from a stop

5)      Bench Press – Strength

6)      Vertical Leap – Lower body explosion

7)      Broad Jump – Slightly different way to look at lower body explosion

8)      20 yard shuttle run – To measure how quickly a back can stop and then restart.

9)      Three cone drill – Evaluates ability to change direction quickly

Once I had the data collected, I did some basic statistical analysis on the nine data points for the 20 different running backs. The mean of the group was found as well as the standard deviation for each of the categories. If you’re unfamiliar with statistics, standard deviation is the average distance away from the mean. In a naturally occurring data set, such as physical measurements, you expect 68% of your data to be between 1 standard deviation above the mean and 1 standard deviation below the mean. You then expect an additional 13.5% to be between 1 deviation and 2 deviations on each of the ends. Only 2.5% of any data set should be more than 2 deviations on either end. With this method, 84% of top 20 running backs will receive at least 1 point for each of the drills. However, most rookies won’t ever reach the top 20 level, which explains why most of them fall far short in many of the areas.

Here’s how the scoring works:

+2 points – More than one standard deviation away from the mean in the positive direction

+1 point – Within one standard deviation of the mean on either end of the spectrum

0 points – If the back didn’t participate in that drill

-1 point – Between one and two deviations away from the mean in the negative direction

-2 points – More than two deviations away from the mean in the negative direction

Here are the minimum levels for the combine drills that are considered at the level of the top 20 running backs, meaning they earn a point or more, is as follows:

BMI: 27.8

Speed Score: 98.5

40 yard dash time: 4.60 seconds

10 yard dash split: 1.58 seconds

Bench Press: 18 reps of 225 pounds

20 yard shuttle: 4.44 seconds

Three cone drill: 7.10 seconds

Vertical Leap: 31.5 inches

Broad Jump: 114.5 inches

A Few Important Notes

1)      There are exceptions to every rule. Some running backs just come out of nowhere. We all know the stories of guys like Arian Foster and Alfred Morris. Foster was undrafted and Morris was a sixth round pick, partially because they didn’t have the measurables we look for in a running back. We need to keep in mind that stories like Foster and Morris are pretty rare and not the norm.

2)      A massive 85% of the top 20 running backs were drafted in the first three rounds. We always hear running backs are being devalued and you can get them from later rounds in the draft – this data doesn’t really back that up. Every once in a while a team might get lucky, but the vast majority of top running backs come from the first three rounds of the NFL draft. After the draft, pay special attention to players who were taken in the first three rounds.

3)      While the round they are drafted in seems to matter, the school, conference, or even the level of competition doesn’t seem to exclude someone from being a top 20 running back. While the SEC did have more than anyone else, it wasn’t an overwhelming amount. Five of the top 20 came from there, while six other conferences had at least two backs in the top 20. In other words, a back drafted in the second round from a small school has roughly the same chance to be a top 20 back as someone drafted from the SEC in the second round.

4)      Like every analysis, this is just one tool to add to your toolbox. This, in and of itself, is not meant to be the end all be all analysis tool. High scores don’t guarantee success and low scores don’t predict automatic failure. All that a high score means is the player has a physical skill set that compares favorably to the top 20 NFL running backs. This does not take into account injury history, vision, patience, desire, work ethic, blocking ability, hands, ball security and many other characteristics that go into making a running back great.

5)      Sometimes the difference between getting a point and losing a point was very slim. For that reason, try not to obsess about the differences between similar numbers. The difference between a six and an eight might have been one inch on a jump. Look at these in a bit more of a holistic approach instead of getting bogged down in the exact numbers. Remember, this is meant to be a tool in addition to other analysis. Not the one and only measurement you use.

6)      My analysis showed running backs are a bit more forgiving than wide receivers when it comes to being deficient (more than one standard deviation below the mean) in multiple areas. In fact, over half of the top 20 running backs were deficient in one of the drills and eight of the 20 were deficient in more than one area. They also excelled in others, though. This is probably due to the specialization that sometimes occurs at the running back position with goal line backs or passing down specialists. This means that unlike the wide receivers, rookies with multiple deficiencies still have a solid chance.

Without further ado, here are the top 2013 rookie running backs by this analysis. Any areas of deficiency are noted in the parenthesis. Keep in mind that the average of the top 20 running backs was about 7 points with all of them (aside from BenJarvus Green-Ellis) being positive numbers.

14 points – Christine Michael

13 points – None

12 points – Knile Davis, Michael Ford

11 points – None

10 points – DJ Harper

9 points – Zac Stacy (10 yard split)

8 points – Giovani Bernard (Speed Score)

7 points – Jonathan Franklin (Vertical Leap)

6 points – Le’Veon Bell (40 time, vertical leap), Cierre Wood (Bench Press, 2 missing drills)

A few things jump out at me when I look at this top group of runners.

1)      The first is just how impressive Christine Michael’s combine performance was this year. As a whole, it was more impressive than the best of the best, Adrian Peterson. We also know about all of Michael’s issues when it comes to character, ball security, work ethic, etc. He is the ultimate lottery ticket in this year’s class. If, and it is a very big if, he can get his head on right, he could be a top ten or maybe even top five talent at the position.

2)      We all heard about the performance of Davis, but Ford and Harper were equally impressive. Ford showed very good strength and explosion in both his upper and lower body. Harper flew under the media radar because he didn’t excel at any of the drills. However, he was right near the average of the top 20 in all of the drills. The same can be said for Mikel Leshoure. I’m not saying Harper is Leshoure, just that Harper has the physical skills to be a nice part of a committee in the NFL.

3)      Many of the other names on this “good” list are guys that we expected to be there. When you consider that several of the top backs didn’t participate (Eddie Lacy, Marcus Lattimore) or didn’t finish the combine (Andre Ellington), most of the other names that are on people’s watch lists popped up in this group. That is good news for their long term prospects if they end up in the right situations.

Let’s take a look at the next group down. Those running backs that were under the average of the top 20, but they were still positive scores.

5 points – CJ Anderson (40 time, Bench Press, 3 cone drill), Kenjon Barner (Speed Score, 10 yard split), Rex Burkhead (Speed Score, 40 time), Mike James (10 yard split, 20 yard shuttle), Matthew Tucker (Bench, Missing 2 drills)

4 points – None

3 points – Kerwynn Williams (Speed Score, Bench Press, 3 cone drill), Onterio McCalebb (Speed Score, 3 missing drills)

2 points – Miguel Maysonet (3 cone drill, 4 missing drills)

1 point – Montee Ball (40 time, 10 yard split, speed score, bench press), Andre Ellington (Speed score, 40 time, 3 missing drills)

Like the top group of rookies, a few things stand out to me on this group as well.

1)      Rex Burkhead is a very interesting player for me. He was in the top ten if not top five for pretty much every combine drill other than his straight line speed. The old saying of “quick, not fast” applies here. If he ran a 4.55 instead of the 4.73 that he did run, we would be talking about him having 11 points. Some all-time great running backs are slow, so you never know. The issue is that a 4.73 is extremely slow for a running back.

2)      Onterio McCalebb had the fastest 40 time and 10 yard split of all of the running backs at the combine. The problem is he is only 168 pounds. He isn’t going to play running back at the next level and will be lucky to see the field in special teams. You might remember the name, but look elsewhere for your fantasy team.

3)      Maysonet and Ellington are two players that people seem to be championing a little bit from some of the items that I’ve seen. Both players most likely would have been a little bit higher than their current scores had they fully participated at the combine. It might be best to think of them as incompletes right now instead of their current scores.

4)      Speaking of players who have been championed, Montee Ball is a player who I’ve liked for a while now. This is largely due to him being one of the most productive college running backs in the history of the NCAA. Unfortunately, his score of a 1 doesn’t help me out much. We all know he didn’t have a great combine. If we were to substitute in his pro day performances instead of the combine, he jumps up to being eight points. That wouldn’t be fair to everyone else though, so he stays at one point for now.

If you didn’t notice, there are a few of the bigger names that didn’t show up on either of the lists. If they participated in the combine, hopefully you find them down below:

Mike Gillislee – In the interest of full disclosure, he is another running back that I’ve been higher than most. I’ve viewed him as a guy that won’t wow you, but he could be a very good backup that might eventually earn a shot at being a starter. His combine performance put him just below the minimum in most of the drills, which isn’t very good for his long range prospects. Score: -1

Ray Graham – Slightly undersized, Graham didn’t perform very well in the runs with a 4.8 second 40 time. Not only that, but he was below average or below the minimum in all of the drills. Maybe it was just a bad day, but the combine definitely created some pretty big red flags for me about if he has the physical skill set to play a role at the next level. Score: -3

Joseph Randle – Randle elected not to participate in three drills at the combine, which has a negative effect on his score. Even more negative than not participating were the drills he did participate in at the combine. Having a 4.63 second 40 time with a 1.61 second split doesn’t say much for his acceleration or top end speed. The fact that he’s six foot and just over 200 pounds doesn’t help matters either. To me his build and skill set still look like a much better fit as a slot receiver than a running back. Score: -3

Stepfan Taylor – If guys like Montee Ball had a bad combine, I don’t even know where to begin when it comes to describing Taylor’s day other than to say it was an epic failure. For a player that was nationally known, his combine was the worst I can remember. Aside from being the right size, Taylor fell below the minimum on every drill, sometimes drastically below. For me, he has bust written all over him because he just doesn’t have the skill set to play in the NFL if we look at his combine performance. Score: -10

That’s it for now on the running back analysis from me. Once the pro days are complete, I’ll revisit those players, both running backs and receivers, that didn’t participate in the combine or those with major improvements. Keep in mind most players improve at their pro days though, so slightly faster times should be taken with a grain of salt.

Good luck in your draft prep!

jacob feldman