Dynasty Stock Market: Analyzing Your Team’s Value

Ryan McDowell

matt_ryan3As you probably know by now, my off-season project has been to organize and run multiple dynasty mock drafts each month. Following the completion of these drafts, I collect and log the draft data in order to find the average draft position of each relevant player. This task is both rewarding and overwhelming as the hours and hours become draft plans, completed trades and rookie draft projections for myself and many other dynasty owners.

I have used the monthly data in each of these ways I’ve mentioned. I have several startup dynasty drafts coming soon and have already begun to craft a plan for each of those drafts, using the ADP data. On top of that, it has helped me to formulate trades in existing leagues, as well as predict what the upcoming rookie drafts in my league might look like, as I shared with you last week. Now, I want to share yet another way that I, and you, can use the data we’ve collected here.

If you play in multiple leagues, it is usually simple to identify teams as contenders or builders. Often though, there will be one or more teams that seem to be stuck in the middle. It can be a very difficult task for an owner to decide which direction to go with teams such as these. Dynasty owners typically get caught up in having some of their favorite players and the value of all players becomes cloudy. Using ADP data is an objective way to analyze not only a player’s value, but the status of an entire dynasty team as well – this is one way to analyze the value of your dynasty team.

I have a team I continue to obsess over. This is not one of my best teams loaded with first round startup picks and up and coming dynamos. Nor is it my worst team stocked with youth and draft picks that may or may not pan out. Instead, it is a team that is stuck in the middle. This team has made the playoffs the past few years, but seldom can manage to win a playoff game. As I was staring blankly at the computer screen last week, again contemplating what exactly to do with this team, I began to look at some of the other rosters in this league. I found it difficult to analyze or predict how my team might finish in 2013. I decided that this could be another way to make use of the data.

I began by creating a list of my players most likely to be starters in 2013, along with their March ADP. This is what that list looks like:

Name

March ADP

Matt Ryan

56

LeSean McCoy

9

Maurice Jones-Drew

39

Julio Jones

10

Larry Fitzgerald

33

Randall Cobb

23

Jared Cook

134

Total

304

Obviously, starting lineups are of the utmost importance, but depth is key as well. With this in mind,  I identified my three top reserves and also found their average draft position.

Name

March ADP

Stevan Ridley

36

Reggie Bush

81

Kenny Britt

65

Subtotal

182

Total (starters+3 reserves)

486

While this information is nice to have, without some perspective of how valuable other teams might be, it is not very helpful. So, I next took on the task of using ADP data to place a value on each of the other eleven teams in my league to give me a better understanding of where my team stands. Here’s what I found:

Team

Total Team Value (starters+3 reserves)

Team A

763

Team B

764

Team C

501

Team D

409

Team E

592

Team F

840

Team G

824

Team H

851

Team I

1,464

Team J

318

Team K

775

This means my team is firmly behind Teams J and D, but that I am in great shape to make another playoff run in 2013, hopefully with more success this time. This was a surprise to me, but my doubts about my team possibly came from my constant focus on the two very strong teams at the top of the league. But, what other information can be gained from such an exercise? Here are some things I noticed about my specific team and the league in general:

  • The average tight end value was 89, while my own Jared Cook is being drafted, on average, at the 134th spot in a startup. This is a position I need to focus on improving.
  • Outside of Team I and the two front-runners already mentioned, most teams are valued similarly – this shows most of these teams could make a playoff run this season and the upcoming rookie draft could have a huge impact.
  • Several of the teams had a second quarterback or tight end among their top three reserves. While it is valuable to have reliable backups at these positions, it is more effective for your top reserves to be from the running back and wide receiver positions.
  • Several teams had much needed depth beyond the ten players I tracked. In fact, three teams (D, E, & J) had multiple players that were not included in the totals that are being drafted ahead of the lesser teams’ starting players. During the season, this depth could help separate these teams when it comes to a push for the playoffs.

There are also a few warnings for those of you who choose to try this in your league. First, I do not think this is a method that will always accurately predict order of finish for the upcoming season. While having “valuable” players is crucial, it is often one or two players ending the season on a hot streak that leads a team to a title. Looking back on the 2012 season in my league, this method did a reasonable job of accurately representing the teams that had success.

Team

Value Score

Actual 2012 Finish

Team J

318

1st

Team D

409

2nd

My Team

486

9th

Team C

501

6th

Team E

592

10th

Team A

763

5th

Team B

764

4th

Team K

775

7th

Team G

824

3rd

Team F

840

11th

Team H

851

8th

Team I

1,464

12th

Also, rookie picks and the value they carry are not accounted for in this method. Teams that are clearly building will often count on the value that rookie picks carry, either in trade value or the rookies that will eventually be added to their team. It will be interesting to revisit this following our league’s rookie draft to assess the value the top rookies may add to the individual teams.

One other danger of completely relying an ADP data to analyze teams in an established league is that the data cannot take into account certain factors such as owner preference, team needs and the value of specific positions in a league. For example, in many leagues, the general value of quarterbacks is low and it can be difficult to unload quarterback depth for help at other positions. During a startup draft, where ADP data is most valuable, most owners feel the pressure to draft a “franchise” quarterback, causing the overall quarterback value to rise.

Finally, this is something I suggest each of you to try with your own league. Simply consult our March ADP data and chart the probable starters and a certain number of reserves for your team and other teams in your league.

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ryan mcdowell
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