Dynasty Debate: Stevan Ridley vs. David Wilson

Jaron Foster Posted On March 27, 2013

The second installment of our ADP debates will feature two young running backs. Fellow writer Jaron Foster and I will debate the merits of Patriots running back Stevan Ridley and the Giants’ David Wilson. February’s data has Wilson and Ridley being drafted twelfth and thirteenth among running backs, respectively. Hopefully if you find yourself on the clock with these two still available in the late second or early third round, this article will help you make up your mind.

Jaron’s argument for Stevan Ridley

In 2012, David Wilson was one of the top scoring running backs in fantasy leagues. In week 14. Take out the 100 rushing yards and two scores at home on December 9, and the fantasy line on the season was 258 rushing yards, four receptions for 34 yards and three total touchdowns. He didn’t surpass 44 yards from scrimmage in a game until that week 14, and even then his only two big games of the season came against the #32 ranked Saints (in terms of yards allowed per game) and the imploding Eagles in the final week.

Two of the knocks on Wilson coming out of Virginia Tech were ball security (losing four of seven fumbles in his lone season as starter) and poor pass protection – two areas in which he continued to struggle in his first season in the NFL. Between his lack of experience and the presence of Andre Brown (particularly at the goal line), not to mention the likelihood that the Giants bring in an additional veteran presence, at this point I cannot justify taking him where his current ADP stands based on February DLF mock drafts: the #12 running back, a RB1 in most formats, right at the turn of rounds two and three. While there are many factors in his favor heading into 2013 (which Mark will undoubtedly highlight well), Wilson’s value just isn’t there yet.

I’d prefer to take the player next on the ADP list, Stevan Ridley, where he’s getting selected in the third round. Having been drafted in the sixth round on average prior to 2012, Ridley proved to be a great value in his breakout Sophomore campaign. A top-ten running back in standard scoring leagues in 2012, Ridley has already cemented himself as the top option in the New England backfield. Even though he only caught six passes, he was still a high-end RB2 in PPR leagues as well. His early draft position in the middle of the third round as the #13 running back taken is a good indicator of his value.

While not missing any games, Ridley provided his owners with at least 13 points in nine games. His size, deceptive speed and blocking ability make him a solid number one rusher in a passing offense. Fellow 2011 draft pick Shane Vereen is a third-down back whose presence is beneficial to Ridley as he has a complementary (rather than comparable) skill set to keep the lead back fresh. While Vereen is expected to see an increase in playing time in 2013, it will come because Danny Woodhead is gone, not at the expense of Ridley.

Perhaps most impressive of all in Ridley’s 2012 campaign was how efficient he was with his opportunities. Although he saw the field in only 44% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps (tied for 22^nd among running backs with Mikel Leshoure and Jacquizz Rodgers), Ridley made the most of his carries as he finished seventh among running backs with 1,263 rushing yards to go along with a dozen touchdowns – this means he stayed fresh and likely will only see increased playing time. In the running-back-by-committee league the NFL has become, there are few players that will get as many carries both between the 20s and at the goal line.

Mark’s argument for David Wilson

Ridley is a competent NFL running back. He fills a need in New England as the primary ball carrier and has done well for himself as Jaron explained above. However, I have multiple concerns about Ridley’s value long term. He exhibited an adequate skill set while averaging 4.4 yards per carry last season. Unfortunately, the 2012 season may have represented his ceiling.

Shane Vereen was drafted in the second round ahead of Ridley in the third. He lost most of his rookie year due to an injury and is just starting to grasp the nuances of the New England offense. He is, in my opinion, the more explosive of the two backs. In all but one game that he saw at least seven carries, he had a run for over ten yards. Ridley isn’t going away, but he might lose 50-75 carries to Vereen next season. For perspective, if he had 60 fewer carries last season, he would have rushed for 999 yards. For a player who doesn’t catch many passes (he had six receptions last season), he doesn’t present a lot of upside going forward. Don’t forget about the Belichick factor either.

David Wilson is a player I’ve actually advised against drafting at his current ADP. I’ll let Jaron point out most of the negatives of relying on Wilson as a third round pick, but the most obvious is we simply don’t know a lot about him. Instead of dwelling on our limited information, let’s look at what we do know. First, he was the most dynamic playmaker out of the backfield for the Giants. He averaged five yards per carry and doubled Ahmad Bradshaw’s fantasy points per snap with 0.56. Unfortunately, he only played 125 snaps all season and saw double digit snaps in only four games. One could argue that’s a result of his flaws, but I think it has more to do with Coach Coughlin’s loyalty to his veteran players.

We also know that Bradshaw is no longer there to carry the load. It creates a massive void in the backfield to the tune of 221 carries. Andre Brown is formidable competition when healthy, but he’s only been able to stay off the trainer’s table for a handful of games in three seasons. While a camp battle looms for the lead back role, Wilson has the game changing talent to turn that competition into a laugher.

This past season gave us just a glimpse of a future star NFL running back. He’s explosive like C.J. Spiller or 2k era Chris Johnson. He displayed his unique skill set in a week 14 explosion. During a 52-27 route of the Saints, Wilson tallied 100 rushing yards, 227 kick return yards and three total touchdowns. He set the franchise record for all purpose yards in a single game without recording a catch and averaged over seven yards per rush on 13 carries.

All the numbers for Wilson aside from his workload look fantastic, but it’s hard to gauge a player by such a limited set of numbers. Wilson is one of those players where all you have to do is watch him. It doesn’t take a professional scout to watch a clip of Wilson and know he has other worldly speed and elusiveness. Every time he touches the ball you get the feeling he could take it the distance. He stands apart as the best player on a field full of the best football players on the planet – that’s upside I have a hard time passing up for an average talent filling a role on a good team with an aging quarterback and a lot of competition.

Conclusion

Jaron did a great job laying out concerns regarding David Wilson. We have a small sample size, questionable ball security and less than average pass protection. While I’d argue Ridley’s 2012 was a career year for a back who presents limited upside. Jaron won’t get a chance to respond to this, but I think our argument comes down to two things. First, Ridley has a safer situation and presents a significantly higher floor than Wilson. Second, Wilson has tremendous upside and a notably higher ceiling than Ridley.

Do you have the intestinal fortitude to role the dice on Wilson or do you prefer the safety of Ridley?

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Jaron Foster

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

A data analyst by profession, Jaron has been writing for DLF since 2012. Native New Englanders, Jaron and his wife are introducing their son (2010) and daughter (2014) to the Patriots. You can regularly find him on Twitter and in the DLF Forum at odd hours.