The Top Seven Rookie Quarterbacks

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geno_smithThis is the last, best chance to check all the players based on their talent.  In this article, I will analyze some of the top quarterbacks, discuss their skills and try to decide which teams are a fit for their services.  As last year’s draft bears witness, there are a lot of things that are unknown to the draft community.  At this time in 2012, running back Chris Polk was considered a top five rookie running back in dynasty leagues until his non-selection in the NFL Draft – this revealed he had more health concerns than were originally known.  Here are my top seven rookie quarterbacks based on talent before situation before the NFL Draft:

1.) Geno Smith, QB WVU

Smith is fairly accurate and does a good job in not throwing interceptions.  His arm strength was greatly affected by the snow and the wind as his passes had almost zero zip to them in his bowl game against Syracuse.  He has quick feet, but sometimes dances around too much in the pocket.  He does well when his first or second passing options are open, but struggles when he forced to go elsewhere. Of all the quarterbacks I have seen in this class, Smith is the one who is most reliant on his wide receivers to make plays. Most of his passes were short to intermediate throws. He was hurt by the way the coaching staff used Tavon Austin as more of a running back instead of as a receiver in the bowl game. He lacks a sense of pocket pressure and seems very emotional, which is very concerning for a potential leader of men.  When Smith gets down on himself in a game, it is very difficult for him to bounce back.  Either Arizona or Buffalo will most probably draft him.  I think he would be better off in Arizona with a head coach who is good at getting the best out of young, athletic quarterbacks.

2.) Matt Barkley, QB USC

Barkley has an amazing amount of experience in a pro style offense.  He sees the field well, but has limited arm-strength to stretch the ball down the gridiron.  The quarterback is a strong leader who is mentally tough and has already played in front of record crowds under tremendous pressure.   Barkley puts his talented receivers in position to make plays, but the question remains if he is truly responsible for their production.  For example, Andy Dalton is a more productive quarterback because he has one of the best receivers in the NFL, AJ Green, to catch his passes.  Barkley may look more mediocre with less talented weapons.  I compare him to former Jet and Dolphin Chad Pennington, who could lead men and make throws with limited arm strength.  Barkley would be a good fit for the Browns as they wouldn’t rely strictly on his arm to move the ball.

3.) Tyler Bray, QB TENN

Bray has a big arm and a quick release.  He is accurate when throwing the ball deep and has a gunslinger type persona that gets him into trouble.  His bad decisions can quickly multiply. Once he throws one interception, he is more likely to throw more as he tries to will his team back into the game.  Bray is not especially mobile and can struggle with accuracy on his shorter throws.  He does his best work with a clean pocket, but that is a tough task in the NFL.  Since Head Coach Rex Ryan seems to be collecting quarterbacks, I would not be surprised to see the Jets select Bray.

4.) EJ Manuel, QB FLA ST

Manuel is a guy to love and hate.  He has such a strong arm and is very mobile.  He also has a quick release and played against tough competition for a long time.  His decision making is concerning as he forces the ball into tight windows that close earlier than he though or he takes off running when he should be waiting for the play to develop.  For as athletically gifted as he is, his footwork needs a lot of work.  I’d love to see him backup RGIII in Washington or Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco.

5.) Ryan Nassib, QB SYR

Nassib has a lot of West Coast offense experience which would come in handy if he gets drafted by his old college head coach in Buffalo.  The quarterback is accurate, sees the entire field and can process information quickly.  He has grittiness to him and is a natural leader of men.  Nassib was not blessed with a cannon for an arm, so he needs to anticipate where his receivers should be to get them the ball.  Another possible fit for him might be the Vikings.

6.) Mike Glennon, QB NC ST

Glennon puts the ball where only the receiver can catch it when he has time in the pocket. He has a strong arm, that at times, gets away from him, especially when he is under pressure. When the quarterback doesn’t step up as he throws, the ball floats which happened several times during his bowl game. Glennon is better when the coaching staff runs bootlegs to open up one side of the field to him and give him more time to throw. He is a very streaky player as when he is hot, he gets even better.  The opposite is true as well – once he makes a mistake, the mistakes compound exponentially.  Glennon is not very mobile and needs to work on feeling pocket pressure along with better overall footwork.  His brittle scarecrow frame is also a point of concern.  Quarterbacks in the NFL get hit a lot, so he needs to be built to take more of a pounding.  I think he would be a great successor to Drew Brees in New Orleans with the chance to learn his craft under Coach Payton.

7.) Tyler Wilson, QB ARK

Wilson is a hard player for me to rank as I could see ranking him anywhere from fourth to here at seventh.  He reads defenses well, has a strong arm and is very accurate.  He can buy time in the pocket with his feet, but does not look to run.  He has good mechanics and is an effective leader.  I like that there is little chance for surprise with him, but this also makes him extremely predictable.  Once his strong head coach left town, Wilson’s play slid significantly.  His deep ball can flutter and after he gets frustrated, Wilson tends to get reckless.  Houston seems like a good fit for him as he can work on his craft for a season or so before replacing Matt Schaub.

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