The DLF Megabag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Before I begin, I’d like to make a note of the large quantity of high quality questions this week. Because of this amazing response from our readers, I’ve decided to answer a few more than usual – a “Megabag,” if you will. Let’s get to it!
1.) As a potential trade target, is Dennis Pitta worth a top-four, first round pick? I currently have Jason Witten, Brent Celek and Dallas Clark on my roster and am only allowed to have three tight ends total. I tried dealing Celek and a choice of receivers, but he countered with a first round pick only. – Mike from PA
I agree with you that Pitta is an excellent “buy” right now. He finished the 2012 season as the PPR TE8, making him a low-end number-one option. He then followed up with a strong postseason in which he caught 14 passes for 163 yards and three touchdowns. Continuing the positive momentum, the off-season saw his primary competition for intermediate routes, receiver Anquan Boldin, get traded to the 49ers. So when I answer your question with an emphatic “No!” I assure you it has nothing to do with Pitta, and everything with the fickle nature of the position.
The second tier of tight ends is lumped so closely together, it just doesn’t make sense to break the bank for any one of them. In fact, the seasonal difference between the TE6 and TE10 in 2012 was a mere 15.9 points – that’s literally the difference of one extra reception per game.
A season-by-season view enhances this concept of replaceability even further. Between the 2010 and 2011 seasons, the lists of top-ten PPR tight ends shared only a 50% similarity. In other words, of the top ten tight ends in 2010, only five replicated that feat in 2011. From 2011 to 2012, only four maintained their top-ten status. Once you move past the top three guys (Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez), the position is just too unpredictable.
Lastly, you’re already set with a high-end option in Witten. Celek is a serviceable option as your number two guy and could very well re-assert himself as a fantasy asset in Chip Kelly’s offense. You should try to upgrade on Clark, but not at the exorbitant cost of a high first rounder.
Continuing with the tight end position…
2.) I feel I have a solid team going into this year with the exception of my tight end. I have Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, CJ Spiller, Doug Martin, Reggie Bush, AJ Green, Hakeem Nicks, Randall Cobb and Stevie Johnson as my core, with Greg Olsen and Jermaine Gresham as my tight ends. Should I deal from my depth to upgrade the position? One team in my twelve-man league has Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Kyle Rudolph and Dennis Pitta. Another has Jimmy Graham and Jason Witten. – Vince from Parts Unknown
This question represents a true “double edged sword” scenario. On one hand, two teams control six of the generally perceived top ten options at the position and can inflate the price of acquisition if they so choose. On the other hand, obtaining one of those players gives you an advantage over the remaining nine teams in the league.
I’m a believer that, within reason, you should always be trying to improve your team. Therefore, I think you should make a play on either Hernandez or Rudolph. The presence of Gronkowski in your prospective trade partner’s lineup should assuage the hurt of having to part with one of his number-two options.
You’re fairly deep at receiver, so I’d offer Johnson straight up for Hernandez. While this trade has a 99.9% likelihood of being rejected, it’s a good conversation starter. I’d make a few more half-hearted attempts for Hernandez before “settling” for an offer of Johnson for Rudolph. According to our ADP data, Stevie is being taken almost a round before Rudolph on average, so that, coupled with your persistent haggling, should mitigate the cost inflation and get you a cornerstone at your weakest position. If he balks, I’d move on with what you have.
3.) I can keep three players in my 16-team league, requiring me to forfeit the round each player was drafted. I have Trent Richardson (first round), Doug Martin (first round), Tom Brady (third round) and Rob Gronkowski (eighth round). I’m trying to determine which of these three to keep. 12 to 13 of the teams will likely keep a quarterback, so I’m tempted to keep Brady or I’ll be stuck with Andy Dalton or Joe Flacco. But if I trade Brady for a first round pick, I could keep Richardson AND Martin. Thoughts? – Steve in WA
Though the prospect of having two of the top-five dynasty/keeper running backs is a tantalizing one indeed, I think you should keep Brady. Sure, the Pats’ signal caller carries a few red flags. He’ll be 36 years old before the season begins, and just lost the player (Wes Welker) who has accounted for nearly 30% of his completions dating back to 2008. However, the quarterback position is king in a 16-team league and Brady should offer top-five upside at the position for at least a few more years.
Hypothetically speaking, let’s say you did choose to trade Brady for a first-round pick, giving you the option of keeping both Martin and Richardson. Now you’re stuck with a tier-two option at quarterback and you’ll be facing the same exact dilemma in 2014. In other words, all you’ve really bought yourself is one year of top-flight play from your ball carriers.
You could trade Brady and keep both running backs, then attempt to trade one of them for a more cost-effective option at quarterback. What types of price tags do players like Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson carry? You could make a play for a younger, cheaper option, but given the league dynamic, my guess is you’ll be unlikely to pull off such a trade. Therefore I think keeping your core of Brady, Richardson and Gronkowski, and then finding a RB2 later in the draft, is your best bet.
4.) The day after Danny Amendola signed with the Patriots, I traded him to a Patriots fan for Michael Crabtree in my non-PPR league. Was it wise to pull the trigger now or should I have waited it out for Amendola to have a few “Wes Welker games” to start the season and trade him then? – Manu Manu in American Samoa
Call me Burt Ward because the only response I can muster right now is “Holy Overreaction, Batman!” I understand the fantasy-driven narrative is that Amendola will seamlessly step in for Welker, that Welker isn’t a truly special talent and that slot receivers are essentially replaceable. Even if this were all true, Amendola still lacks a rapport with Tom Brady, and as Brandon Lloyd can attest to, talent alone doesn’t guarantee success in the New England offense. Moreover, the biggest aspect of Amendola’s perceived upside is the potential to rack up catches – an advantage that is completely neutered in non-PPR leagues. Without sounding too cavalier about his dynasty prospects, wake me up when the production catches up to the hype.
Crabtree, on the other hand, has already transcended the hype, performing as a WR1 in the latter stages of 2012. Once Colin Kaepernick took over as the starting quarterback mid-season, Crabtree averaged 85 yards and 0.71 touchdowns per game. In the playoffs, those numbers improved to an average of 95 yards and one touchdown. This cumulative performance has led to an offseason ADP of #30 overall, as the WR9. So do I think it wise to pull the trigger now? To quote Rocky Balboa’s trainer Mickey, “Ya did good kid, ya did real good.”
5.) I have been going back and forth on a trade for Colin Kaepernick in my 12-team, non-PPR league. I currently have Joe Flacco and Philip Rivers as my quarterbacks, and have good wide receiver depth (AJ Green, Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, Mike Williams and Emmanuel Sanders). In the proposed trade I give up Flacco, Green and the #9 overall pick for Kaepernick, Victor Cruz and the #6 pick. Thoughts? – Fresh in City of Champions
I’m with you halfway on this one. It’s a tremendous idea to sell high on Joe Flacco following his epic playoff run and subsequent ridiculous contract, as, much like Amendola above, I doubt the production ever matches the hype. My issue with the trade is why it needs to involve severely underselling Green?
According to the ADP data, Green is being drafted as the number one overall pick, with an average position of 2.5. The next most valuable piece in the trade, Cruz, is being drafted almost 30 spots later. Upgrading from Flacco to Kaepernick (as well as the slight change in draft picks) doesn’t come close to mitigating the downgrade in receivers. In dynasty leagues, Green is nearly as untouchable as they come.
When trading, my general rule of thumb is to not sell above a target’s “pay grade.” In other words, if you’re targeting a specific player, do not involve any other players with higher values. Since your trade is centered around Flacco and Kaepernick, throw in a player like Mike Williams, or a draft pick, to bridge the gap. If that doesn’t get it done, move onto the next prospective trade partner. In a twelve-team league, quarterbacks don’t carry nearly enough of a premium to cause you to break the bank in line with what’s being proposed to you.
6.) With the latest news on the “crown of the helmet” rule, one could argue that the running back position as a whole is going to take a hit. Specifically, the more powerful running backs (Trent Richardson and Adrian Peterson come to mind) could end up having a hard time adjusting to this rule. What are your thoughts? – Krcil in SD
Truthfully, I think this is going to wind up as a case of much ado about nothing. The exact verbiage of the rule states that the offending team will be penalized 15 yards from the spot of the foul. What’s important about that distinction is it means the play will still count, and the yards gained won’t just evaporate into thin air. Sure, the penalty will dramatically alter the play calling for that series, but I don’t see any other harmful consequences.
I’m also not sold on the assertion that the new rule will have a greater effect on power runners. I think lowering the head/shoulder for personal protection comes as second nature to any running back, regardless of playing style. Furthermore, I’m willing to bet head coaches will hammer the “crown” concept into the heads of their ball carriers (pun intended) ad nauseum, and even if the penalty gets called, do you see Leslie Frazier removing Adrian Peterson from a meaningful game because of it? I don’t think any type of reactionary response is necessary here.
7.) In a very deep, 32-team league with double players, I’ve been offered to get rid of Rolando McClain for a 2014 fourth rounder. Should I cut ties or do you think he will get a shot at replacing Brian Urlacher with the Bears. – Howatzer in BC
I’ll be the first to admit I’m no IDP expert. However, what I do know is that McClain is essentially the Kenny Britt of defensive players, only without the same type of potential. As a two-down linebacker who has yet to achieve 100 tackles in a season, and one with a rap sheet more extensive than his list of accolades, it’s amazing you’re being offered anything for him. Heck, even that perennial band of upstanding citizens, the Oakland Raiders, are trying to get rid of him.
I also want to point out the way you phrased the question, in specific that you’ve been offered “to get rid of McClain.” It’s obvious you don’t want him on your team, so why hesitate? You might not land a superstar with a future fourth round pick, but the smart money says you can find a more than adequate, as well as law abiding, replacement.
8.) How will losing Bruce Arians affect Andrew Luck, Reggie Wayne and TY Hilton? Since Arians loved to pass with the Steelers/Colts, do you see attempts/targets dropping for Luck and the receivers with Pep Hamilton calling the shots? – Justin in MO
Under Arians, Luck finished with the fifth most passing attempts (627), as well as the seventh most passing yards (4,374). Though Arians is known to have a preference for a vertical offense, Luck was actually below the league average in terms of yards per attempt, at 6.98 (#17 amongst qualifiers). Making these numbers all the more impressive is the fact that Luck managed to do all this as a rookie.
Though the popular belief is that Hamilton will install a modified West Coast offense, reports to the contrary have recently surfaced. Apparently Hamilton, as well as head coach Chuck Pagano, are firm believers in the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” philosophy. However, it’s fair to assume that Hamilton will at least partially impart his own offensive ideology.
With the West Coast offense predicated upon the passing game, I don’t expect Luck’s attempts to drop off drastically. Moreover, his familiarity with Hamilton, who was Luck’s college coordinator at Stanford, should aid in any type of transition. With that said, the jury is still out on Wayne and Hilton.
Hilton had the fifth best yards per catch statistic in the league last year at 17.2, whereas Wayne was much more of a possession receiver (12.8 yards per catch, #53 overall). With potentially fewer deep strikes, Hilton would need a drastic uptick in receptions in order to maintain, or improve upon his yardage. Wayne, who was the recipient of Luck’s radar lock last year, should stand to benefit, but it’s unlikely he’ll surpass the 194 targets (second most in the league) he received in 2012. He was also the beneficiary of a sort of “smoke and mirrors” treatment, as Arians moved him all over the formation, providing him with advantageous coverage assignments. Will that type of game-planning continue?
The bottom line is that an astounding five of the Colts’ primary offensive skill position players (Luck, Hilton, running back Vick Ballard and tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen) were rookies in 2012. Though the Indianapolis offense outperformed our wildest expectations, it’s imperative to remember that it was still a learning experience for each of the players listed above. With that in mind, even if the overall scheme changes, I expect the Colts offense to take another step forward in 2013.
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