Post Combine Rookie Mock Draft: The Risers and Fallers

Jacob Feldman

If you’ve been a devoted follower of the premium section articles over the last few months, you’ve seen us post two different rookie mock drafts so far this off-season. The first one was conducted in very early February in order to give you an initial peek into the rookie class. The more recent one was started shortly after the combine ended to give you a bit of a deeper look at the rookie class of 2013.

In order to make life a little bit easier for those of you that are trying to figure out the trends in those rookies, I’ve decided to put together a bit of a risers and fallers article for you – this way if you just want to see the trends without pouring through the actual mocks, you can get a good idea. I’ll also include a few of my personal thoughts on why I think there was a big change in their draft status and what it means for your rookie drafts. If you want the full mocks and the write-ups that went with them, here you go:

Pre-Combine Round 1

Pre-Combine Round 2

Post Combine Round 1

Post Combine Round 2

Post Combine Round 3

Keep in mind since the post combine draft was three rounds long (the pre-combine draft was only two rounds), at least 12 more players were added to the mix. I’m not going to list anyone taken in the third round of the post combine mock as a riser because they very well could have been there had we done three rounds in the pre-combine draft. Make sure you check out those names in the third round if you haven’t done so already.

Major Risers (Rising more than six spots)

Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia
Pre-Combine: 2.01, Post Combine: 1.04

In the case of Austin, I think his rise is mostly attributed to the fact that he is indeed a very solid athlete and that was put on display at the combine. Running a 4.34 second 40 time and a 4.01 second shuttle really got people’s attention. I still have some questions about his hands, but he is definitely in the top group of receivers in this year’s draft. I would expect him to go within the top six slots of pretty much every rookie draft at this point in time.

Markus Wheaton, WR Oregon State
Pre-Combine: 2.12, Post Combine: 1.10

This big of a jump for Wheaton surprised me a little bit. He did have a nice combine, showing better than expected times in all of the runs as well as performing better than expected in the jumps. While his original 2.12 pick is a little bit low based on the talent, I think his position as a first round rookie pick is a slight overreaction to his combine performance. He’ll most likely end up going in the early to middle of the second round of rookie drafts.

Knile Davis, RB Arkansas
Pre-Combine: Undrafted in two rounds, Post Combine: 1.11

I expected this kind of jump after one of the most impressive combines out of a running back in many years. The physical tools are definitely there. The questions come down to his injury history, fumbling issues and the fact that he looked better at the combine than he does on tape. He’s a high risk, high reward pick and depending on which NFL team takes the big leap of faith, he could easily be a first round pick in rookie drafts. Chances are someone in your league will swing for the fences on him in the middle or late first round. He could be Darren McFadden or Cedric Benson.

Andre Ellington, RB Clemson
Pre-Combine: Undrafted in two rounds, Post Combine: 1.12)

Ellington is a player that surprised me in both mock drafts so far. Pre-Combine I was surprised that he wasn’t taken at all as I felt he is most likely middle to late second round talent at that time. Then he had a rather poor showing at the combine, which I expected to drop his value a bit more, but he became a late first round selection. At this point, I’m not a huge fan of Ellington but he’s probably going to be more of a late second round pick at this point in time unless someone reaches for him earlier in the second round based on positional need.

Christine Michael, RB Texas A&M
Pre-Combine: Undrafted in two rounds, Post Combine: 2.03

Much like Knile Davis, Michael put on one of the better combine performances in recent memory for a running back. He was fast, strong and explosive in the drills. He also showed a little bit of the red flags when he missed multiple interviews with teams. Michael’s game tape seems to back up his combine performances, making it less likely that he is just a workout warrior. However, he also has some fumbling issues as well as a bit of an injury history. Combine that with a very well documented history of character concerns and you might just have a player that follows the Titus Young plan for the NFL. He’s very talented and I would expect someone will definitely be seduced by the talent in the late first or early second round of your rookie draft. It is really tough to tell if he’ll be a home run or a strikeout at this point.

Ryan Swope, WR Texas A&M
Pre-Combine: Undrafted in 2 rounds, Post Combine: 2.10

Swope surprised an awful lot of people at the combine and made them go back and take a look at what he did in college – he was highly productive and currently holds many of the career records for Texas A&M. He has a Mike Wallace-type of body with similar long speed, which he proved with a 4.34 second 40 time. He also plays a bit of a similar style with the big play, boom or bust style. He is someone who might continue to rise up NFL and fantasy draft boards as the weeks go on. He’ll most likely need to land on an NFL team with a big armed quarterback who is in need of a deep threat if he is going to be a decent fantasy asset.

Le’Veon Bell, RB Michigan State
Pre-Combine: Undrafted in two rounds, Post Combine: 2.11

A big bruiser out of Michigan State, Bell showed he can actually move and run better than expected at the combine – this has him rising up many draft boards. While he could act as a three down back in the NFL, I think most NFL teams would decide to pair him up with a faster, more agile back in a committee. I envision him taking on a Brandon Jacobs kind of role for a team that already has a smaller, faster back. If he were to land on a team like St. Louis, or either team in New York as a part of a committee, his stock will skyrocket. He’s one to watch on draft day.

Minor Risers (Rising three to six spots)

patterson_and_hunterJustin Hunter, WR Tennessee
Pre-Combine: 1.10, Post Combine: 1.06

Before the combine there were some questions about if Hunter has regained his pre-ACL injury form or not. The combine showed he definitely has, which puts him back into the discussion of being a first round NFL pick. He has the height and the speed to be a lead receiver at the NFL level, which should put him firmly into the top six picks in most fantasy drafts. Where in those six picks will all depend on which team he ends up going to, but middle of the first is the lowest I would expect him to slide.

Montee Ball, RB Wisconsin
Pre-Combine: 1.11, Post Combine: 1.07

Ball’s rise was more a product of other people falling. The pre-combine mock draft had two tight ends and a quarterback go in the first nine picks. None of them went so early in the post combine mock draft which resulted in players like Ball climbing up a few spots. While he lacks the upside that players like Davis or Michael present, he is a much safer pick than either of them. He should be a solid, but rather unspectacular pro who can handle a heavy workload along the lines of Stevan Ridley or a younger Michael Turner.

Minor Fallers (Falling three to six spots)

Stedman Bailey, WR West Virginia
Pre-Combine: 2.02, Post Combine: 2.06

I wouldn’t read too much into this drop. It just comes down to how people feel about slot receivers. Bailey is a nice prospect, but I don’t see him as being elite at the next level. For rookie drafts, he is going to go somewhere in the second round. His NFL team will decide exactly where he goes. On a pass heavy team, he could be a nice PPR receiver.

Major Fallers (Falling more than six spots)

Geno Smith, QB West Virginia
Pre-Combine: 1.04, Post Combine: 2.04

Smith’s fall isn’t really a product of his own doing as much as it is a result of him being vastly overdrafted during the pre-combine mock in my opinion. I’m not a fan of any of the rookie quarterbacks this year when it comes to them being fantasy QB1s. For that reason, I don’t think any of them should be drafted prior to the second round outside of superflex or two quarterback leagues. Smith’s “fall” is just him going about where he should go in my opinion. He’s still the top quarterback in this year’s draft – that just isn’t worth as much this year.

Zach Ertz, TE Stanford
Pre-Combine: 1.06, Post Combine: 2.01

Let me start by saying I’m not a huge fan of rookie tight ends. Very few belong in the first round of rookie drafts in my opinion. The sixth pick in the first round was too early to start with and 2.01 might even be too early for him as well. He didn’t have a great combine showing and doesn’t really seem to be any better of a prospect that former teammate Coby Fleener. I would expect him to be more of a late second round rookie pick in most drafts if he doesn’t slide even further than that.

Marcus Lattimore, RB South Carolina
Pre-Combine: 1.08, Post Combine: 2.05

I expected Lattimore to slip a bit after the combine. With all of the other prospects being on display and some of them putting on a show, it is only natural someone who can’t participate (like Lattimore) should fall out of favor a little bit. His situation is unchanged from what it was pre-combine – it’s just the case of having several others are on the rise while he is stagnant. Unless he is drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL draft, I expect him to stay somewhere in the second round of rookie drafts. I also don’t expect him to do much during the 2013 season.

Joseph Randle, RB Oklahoma State
Pre-Combine: 2.03, Post Combine: 3.06

Randle didn’t have a great showing at the combine and looked very lean for a running back. His body build is more of a receiver’s build than that of a running back. I think that Randle is most likely a third day NFL pick and will probably be little more than a passing down specialist in the NFL, if he can even manage to carve out that kind of role.

Matt Barkley, QB USC
Pre-Combine: 2.04, Post Combine: 3.11

Much like Geno Smith, this fall is more of an adjustment to where Barkley should have been in the first place. The chances of Barkley turning into a fantasy starter anytime soon are pretty slim. I view him as more of a Ryan Fitzpatrick or Kevin Kolb kind of quarterback at the next level. Of course his team will be the final deciding factor on where he gets taken in the draft, but the third round of rookie drafts seems about right at this point in time.

Terrance Williams, WR Baylor
Pre-Combine: 2.05, Post Combine: 3.02

This big of a fall for Williams surprises me. His combine was about what I expected out of someone his size other than having smaller hands and arms than I would have guessed. There really wasn’t anything that happened, aside from maybe a few people leapfrogging him, that should have caused a drop like this. When rookie drafts roll around, I expect him to go somewhere in the second round of rookie drafts.

Cierre Wood, RB Notre Dame
Pre-Combine: 2.08, Post Combine: Undrafted in three rounds

This is another fall I anticipated. Wood is not in my top 12 running backs in this class and unless he ends in a very advantageous position in the NFL draft, I can’t see him going in the first three rounds of a rookie draft. He projects as little more than a career backup in the NFL, much like Javon Ringer.

Aaron Dobson, WR Marshall
Pre-Combine: 2.10, Post Combine: 3.08

Much like Lattimore, this is a product of him not participating at the combine. Dobson is a top ten wide receiver talent in this draft and should be going off the board in the second round of rookie drafts. Once his pro day and the NFL Draft play out, I think his stock will be on the rise once again. If you have your draft before then, he is someone to get on the cheap while others are forgetting about him.

Mike Gillislee, RB Florida
Pre-Combine: 2.11, Post Combine: 3.07

His stock slipped a little bit with an average showing at the combine. He doesn’t have the raw talent of some other backs in this class, but he does have the ability to be a three down player in the right system. Depending on where he goes in the NFL Draft, he could rise back up to the late second round in rookie drafts, but the third round is probably more fitting for his talent level.

That’s it for my rookie mock drafts until the NFL Draft is upon us, which we all know can change things around a lot more.

jacob feldman