Dynasty Stock Market: The Ups and Downs of Recent RB ADP

Over the past two months, I have conducted a total of twelve dynasty startup mock drafts. Many of you have participated in these drafts and I plan to continue them throughout the off-season in preparation for startup drafts and the 2013 fantasy season.

In an off-season full of events, dynasty owners look forward to the Rookie Combine, NFL free agency, the NFL draft and the start of training camps, while I relish the chance to participate in these mock drafts and analyze the data they produce. The most obvious use of the average draft position (ADP) data is in preparing for an upcoming startup draft. While the data is not foolproof, it can give owners a good idea of where a specific player may be drafted and when position runs might begin.

The ADP data is not just for owners participating in new leagues, though. Owners in existing dynasty leagues can also use it. I’ll cover just a couple of ways the data could be valuable.

First, owners can use it to evaluate potential trades. Again, this is not the only tool one should use, but it can give owners a good idea of the current market value of certain players. Roster strength and team dynamics would, of course, play a large role in creating a balanced trade in any dynasty league. Another way to use the ADP data is to analyze a dynasty roster. This is something I have been doing lately. In the average startup draft, an owner will leave the draft with one player valued as a first round pick, one valued as a second round pick and so on. If your dynasty team is filled with multiple highly valued players, then you are likely a playoff contender. On the other hand, if your team lacks players routinely being chosen in the first three rounds, it may be time to rebuild and look towards the future.

One of the top ways I make use of the data from month-to-month is by finding the players who experience drastic changes in value. Once I know this, I can use this information to make decisions about buying or selling, or just staying away from specific players. Today, I’ll take a look at some pass catchers, including both tight ends and wide receivers whose value greatly changed from our January mock drafts to February drafts.

Ups

These players have all experienced an increase in value over the one month span. We’ll take a look at the data, some possible reasons for the increase in value and discuss if owners should be buying or selling.

The top two running backs rising up the boards from January to February should be no surprise to anyone who had followed the events of off-season closely. Giants running back Andre Brown saw his value improve instantly when the team released veteran Ahmad Bradshaw. Brown showed his skills early in the season during a two game stretch filling in for Bradshaw. That was the first time the average dynasty owner became aware of Brown. Although he managed less that 400 rushing yards on the season, he did score eight rushing touchdowns to lead the team. The main knock on Brown is his injury history. If he can stay healthy, he should be the smaller part of a timeshare with dynamic runner David Wilson. Brown is now being valued, according to our draft data, in the same range as several other backup running backs like Robert Turbin, LaMichael James and Shane Vereen, I feel his value his climbed higher than it should, mostly due to the injury concerns.

The other big riser is also not a surprise. Dolphins’ running back Lamar Miller has seen his dynasty demand quickly rise. Although he was largely unimpressive as a rookie, the job is now wide open with former starter Reggie Bush moving on to Detroit. It has been assumed for a few weeks now that Bush would be gone, which spurred the increase in Miller’s value, a 50 spot jump. Miller is another whose value is becoming prohibitive. He is being taken as early as the third round in dynasty startup drafts. The price will always be high for young starting running backs, but as a third or fourth rounder, his value could increase even more over the coming months if Miami does not bring in another running back to contend for carries.

Downs

When some players go up, others must come down. The players below have to deal with all the normal issues that can affect their dynasty value like injuries, position battles and uncertainty about their future. Now though, they, and all other veterans also must also deal with the inclusion of incoming rookies further deflating their value and ADP.

The list of running backs losing value reads like a list of players that should be on the waiver wire of most dynasty leagues. Few of these players have much value at all, hence their late ADP in both January and February. The one player that really surprises me on this list is Bears backup running back Michael Bush. Bush’s role as backup to starter Matt Forte seems secure and he has shown the ability to step in as the starter when given the opportunity. While he had just 411 rushing yards in 2012, he nearly had 1,400 combined yards in 2011. Bush is a player I would be targeting this off-season for cheap running back depth, especially if I was a Forte owner.

The only other player worthy of mention here is Bradshaw. He has long had trouble with his feet. In fact, he recently underwent yet another foot surgery, which likely played some part in the Giants decision to release him, along with the lack of interest he has received since his release. Bradshaw seems to be a reach as an eighth rounder, although I do expect his ADP to continue to fall, according to our most recent data, which should be published soon. Even at this ADP, Bradshaw is likely a running back to avoid.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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