2013 IDP Breakouts, Sleepers, & Stashes: AFC South
Like the offensive side of the ball, it is equally important to identify potential value plays in IDP leagues. Last year, we broke this article down by conference and provided one player per team, but this year we’ll break it down by divisions and analyze multiple players per team. The discussion will focus on players to watch, target, and/or stash for each NFL team. Some of the listed players will only be immediately relevant for deeper leagues, while others are targets for all types of leagues.
Similar to last year, the discussion below will center around three types of players:
Breakout: Players primed for a breakout season who are currently undervalued in dynasty leagues. Simply put, they demand more attention than they are receiving. They represent players who are on the cusp of becoming dominant weekly options at their respective positions.
Sleeper: These players will vary in their level of sleeper status. Some will be long-term sleepers who may take a year or two to develop, while others are players who are older and presented with new roles that result in increased fantasy value that is currently downplayed by the masses.
Stash: Players who are not talked about much, but deserve to be placed at the end of benches due their talent or opportunity. Many of these guys will take a few years to emerge and become household fantasy names. These are targets for the deeper IDP leagues.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Mike Harris, CB (Stash)
Derek Cox and Rashean Mathis are potential losses in free agency, which will leave Harris as a starter. Many believe Harris is a better fit as a slot corner, but the rookie started the last five games of 2012 posting at least four tackles in each game. Actually, in two games he tallied seven tackles. If given the starter spot, the soon to be second year corner should continue to see tackle opportunities and be a viable player in cornerback required leagues. He’s a nice stash in deeper corner required leagues as he’s probable to start in 2013.
Andre Branch, DE (Sleeper)
Coach Gus Bradley’s defense is expected to be very similar to Seattle’s and incorporate some hybrid packages. In particular, the defense uses an “Elephant” or “Leo.” Chris Clemons and Bruce Irvin both played this role in Seattle’s defense in different packages. This position is a pass rushing defensive end whose sole purpose is to get into the backfield, pressure the quarterback or disrupt the running game. Many suspect Jason Babin will take this role in 2013 given his experience in the wide-9 in Philly, but it’s possible Babin is a cap casualty. Even if he isn’t, Branch is a former second round pick who is likely to get a shot at some point through the development of this young defense. Given his athleticism and versatility, Branch is a candidate for the Leo role. Many will point to his rookie season struggles as a reason to stay away, but we need to take into consideration that defensive ends traditionally take time to develop and struggle as rookies.
Julian Stanford, OLB (Stash)
With injuries at linebacker to Daryl Smith and Kyle Bosworth in 2012, Stanford started six games at strongside linebacker as a rookie. Out of Wagner college, Stanford was faced with a steep learning curve in 2012 having played against marginal competition in college. His play was adequate while limited to a two-down role, but he requires patience as he acclimates himself to the NFL game given where he’s come from. From a natural talent perspective, Stanford is explosive and extremely athletic. He’s also extremely versatile with the ability to play both the strong and weakside linebacker spot. With Daryl Smith a free agent, Stanford is a target in deep leagues given his upside and the snaps and experience he received in 2012 as a rookie.
Indianapolis Colts
Pat Angerer, ILB (Sleeper)
Angerer missed much of the 2012 season with a foot injury. While he was active throughout the season, his snaps were minimal. Many speculated it was because Jerrell Freeman outplayed him, while others suggested it was due to the lingering impact of his injury. Following the Colts’ playoff loss, news surfaced confirming the lingering injury speculation. Specifically, it highlighted that Angerer played through pain and required a second foot surgery. In IDP leagues, many are moving Angerer to the wire and assuming he’s done. However, given his talent, 2010 production, and a lingering injury in 2012, he’s a worthwhile target this off-season as he should start next to Freeman in the middle in 2013.
Joe Lefeged, FS / SS (Stash/Watch)
In his third year in 2012, Lefeged finished the year as a starter for the Colts due to an injury to Tom Zbikowski. As a starter from weeks 13 through 17, he averaged four tackles a game and showed some improvement in pass coverage. With fluctuating snaps throughout 2011, production and improvement in 2012, as well as his special teams contributions, Lefegad is a worthy stash or watch depending on league depth. He may carry more fizzle risk than others, however, given the mediocre abilities of Zbikowski, Lefeged is worth a stash in deeper leagues given his development to date.
Houston Texans
Whitney Mercilus, OLB (Breakout)
The likely free agency loss of Connor Barwin is exactly why Mercilus was drafted in 2012. With Barwin out, there is a hole at outside linebacker, which means that Mercilus will step into the starting lineup. He’ll be more relevant in big-play leagues as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but expect Mercilus to see a high volume of snaps and sack opportunities beginning in 2013. He started four games towards the end of 2012 and over a six game span from week 12 through 17, he played more than 75% of the team’s snaps in all games but one. Over that time, he also amassed nine tackles, five tackles for a loss, three sacks and nine quarterback hurries. He is disruptive and gets to the quarterback making him a fantastic big-play target.
Tennessee Titans
Zach Brown, WLB (Breakout)
Assuming the every down linebacker role in week nine in 2012, Brown excelled. There were concerns prior to his rookie year surrounding his tackling ability, but he quickly shed those concerns with an impressive year finishing with 67 tackles and four and a half sacks playing 67% of the team’s snaps on the year – that left Brown with an LB3 finish in an overall impressive rookie season. Entering the 2013 season, there’s no reason to suspect that this production won’t continue. In particular, his four and a half sacks, along with four of his seven quarterback hurries, came in the last six weeks of the year. Over that period, he also had some of his best fantasy producing games. Given his athleticism, his apparent willingness to initiate contact, as well as the fact that Brown is likely to retain the every down role on the weakside, he’s a quality breakout candidate for 2013.
Mike Martin, DT (Breakout)
Martin started 2012 strong getting to the quarterback frequently as evidenced by numerous sacks, hits and hurries in his first six games. A rough game in week eight against the Colts cost him playing time after he struggled against the run and was flagged for two big penalties early in the game (one cost him $15K and another negated a Titans fumble recovery). It took about four weeks before he slowly earned snaps back, but in week 17 against Jacksonville, Martin showed the same early season effort and production as put two hits and three hurries on the quarterback.
Early on in 2012, Martin was putting up three to four tackles a game, sprinkling in a sack here and there. With Sen’Derrick Marks a free agent, Martin should assume a starting spot next to Jurrell Casey. Given his early rookie season production and the way he finished the season, expect Martin to be a solid contributor in defensive tackle required leagues in 2012.
