Perception vs. Reality: Jordy Nelson

Jacob Feldman

Perception vs. Reality is a semi-regular premium-exclusive series that will focus in on a few players that for one reason or another (at least in the eyes of this writer), seem to have a slightly distorted value or a very wide range for their value in the dynasty community as a whole. The goal of this series will be to ignore the common perceptions that might be either too generous or much too harsh based on the name value of the player, the media coverage, or any other number of reasons.

This is not intended to be a buy or sell series, since some of these players will have owners who are extremely high on them, making them impossible to buy at decent value, while others will have owners who are extremely low on them. Instead, this is a series that will hopefully make you channel your inner Dennis Green and make sure that players “are who we thought they were.”

The previous installments can be found below:

Michael Crabtree

Jonathan Stewart

Joe Flacco

jordy_nelsonWith free agency just around the corner, one of the talking points is that Greg Jennings is going to be looking for a new team that isn’t named the Green Bay Packers. If that does end up being the case, that leaves a bit of a void at the wide receiver position for their high flying offense. If you take a look at the recent ADP data being put together by our very own Ryan McDowell, people obviously have very high hopes for the top two receivers on the team, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson. Both of them are being selected in the top 12 wide receivers. Cobb was bit higher profile coming out of college and people tend to know a bit about him, so I want to spend a bit of time to focus in on the other part of that one-two punch in Nelson.

History

Nelson’s career dating back to his college years is very much one of a player who has needed to work for everything he has achieved. He was a very good three sport athlete coming out of High School, but wasn’t recruited by many high profile football programs – this was partially due to the fact he was a quarterback in high school. He actually ended up walking on at Kansas State, which he attended since it was in his home State. He made the team as a defensive back, but was redshirted during his first year on the team.

It was in his Sophomore year that he was switched to the wide receiver position, and it was clearly a good move with what we know now. He wasn’t a star immediately, but he did start every game that season and did pretty well by catching 45 passes for 671 yards and eight touchdowns on the season.

He didn’t take the typical step forward you look for in players in college. His Junior year was a bit of a step back with 39 catches, 547 yards and only one touchdown. He played in all of the games, but struggled in many of them due to nagging knee and leg injuries.

It was his Senior season where he really showed up, taking a massive step over what he had done in previous years. In what was only his third year playing the receiver position, he received national attention as an All-American and a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award, which is given to the nation’s best receiver (Michael Crabtree won the award that year). He made 122 receptions for 1,606 yards and 11 touchdowns with two more scores on punt returns – he even threw two passes for touchdowns on trick plays.

After his Senior year, like many successful college players, Nelson set his focus on playing at the next level. At the combine, he had a good, but not exceptional showing. He ran a 4.51 second 40 yard dash, had a vertical leap of 31 inches, a broad jump of 123 inches, a shuttle run of 4.35 seconds, and a three cone drill of 7.03 seconds. With no glaring holes in his game, this was enough to make Nelson a high second round pick of the Green Bay Packers, and he has been there ever since.

Talking Points

1.) “With Jennings gone, he’s the number one guy.”

I’m not so sure on this. He might be the top outside receiver, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to be the top receiver on the team. Percy Harvin and Wes Welker aren’t outside, but they are still the top targets on their teams. I think the Packers will be added to that list with Cobb being the top target even though he isn’t on the outside that much. Clearly I’m not the only one who thinks that with Cobb’s ADP being in the late second round as the eighth receiver off the board. To make matters worse, being the top outside receiver means that Nelson will probably draw the top cornerback, which might make Aaron Rodgers look elsewhere.

2.) “Even as the second target on the team, he’s a lock for 10+ TDs and 1,200+ yards with Rodgers throwing the ball for 4,200+ yards and 35+ TDs each year.”

Like many of the elite quarterbacks, Rodgers doesn’t lock on to one receiver. Instead, he goes to the open player and often has seven or more players catch passes in a game. This year, the Packers didn’t have a single 1,000 yard receiver, but they did have four of them post over 665 yards. They also didn’t have anyone over 80 receptions, but did have five players with 35 or more. If you go back to 2011 when Rodgers had 4,643 yards and 45 TDs, you notice similar trends. There are five receivers over 35 catches, but none over 70, four players over 630 yards with only one over 1,000. Bottom line is Rodgers has always spread the ball around, which caps the upside of any receiver.

3.) “2012 was just a down year. He was a top 3 WR in 2011. He’ll get back there.”

This might be a touch on the optimistic side. Nelson’s 2011 was top three in most fantasy leagues; however, it involved some extremely rare numbers. For example, Nelson caught 71% of his targets, scored on 22% of his catches, and had 28% of his receptions at 20 yards or more – those just aren’t sustainable numbers when looked at independently, and when looked at as a whole they are extremely unlikely to have happened in the first place, let alone a second time. It’s tough to expect a downfield receiver to have a catch rate much above the low 60s and normally guys that aren’t red zone targets only get a touchdown on 10-15% of their receptions – that means Nelson was scoring at almost double the rate he should have been in 2011. I doubt we will ever see that again from him.

4.) “He’s injury prone and will always be a question mark.”

This might be a little bit harsh. Most of his injuries have been pretty minor and of the ankle or knee sprain variety. He has had two seasons (one in college and one in the pros) that were significantly impacted by these injuries. Aside from those, his other six seasons as a wide receiver have featured him being mostly healthy. The only issue I have seen is that when he does have an injury, it tends to have an impact him for the rest of the season either due to re-injury or him just not being able to play at 100%. I don’t view him as an injury risk any more than the majority of players.

5.) “He’s young and still developing.”

Many people don’t realize this, but Nelson isn’t as young as most seem to think. Nelson’s “breakout” year was his fourth season in the league. He is currently entering his sixth season in the league and he will be turning 28 before this Summer. While he definitely isn’t old and isn’t in the declining phase of his career, he is most likely already at his peak. At this point, he has pretty much become the receiver that he is going to be, which in my opinion is good, but not great.

6.) “There isn’t much else on the Packers roster right now.”

True, the Packers are a little bit thin when it comes to pass catchers right now, especially if Jennings walks away. His departure would leave just four experienced pass catchers on the roster in Cobb, Nelson, James Jones and Jermichael Finley (maybe). Considering the Packers run several four (if not five) receiver sets, that means he’ll be on the field at least.  That also means the Packers will probably be looking to the draft to get a few more pass catchers on the roster. Given Ted Thompson’s history at finding quality receivers and the ability of Rodgers to make average talents look great, it means that the depth issue is easy to fix.

Bottom Line

In my opinion, Nelson is a good, but not great receiver. If he was on a team that didn’t have an elite quarterback, he wouldn’t even be looked at as a top 25 receiver, let alone in the top 10 or 15.  He has the skill set to be a nice complementary receiver, but I think he will struggle going up against the top cornerbacks on the opposing team. Combining that with Rodgers’ tendency to spread the ball around makes me less optimistic about Nelson’s future performance than his current dynasty ADP would indicate.

He is currently signed through the 2014 season with Green Bay. Given the Packers’ history with contracts, they will probably let him walk unless he is willing to sign cheaply. If he leaves, the question is what he will do without one of the best throwing him the ball. If you have him on roster right now and can get WR1, or even high end WR2 value for him right now, this might be the time to move him.

jacob feldman