Dynasty Capsule: St. Louis Rams

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re also going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

The St. Louis Rams took a major step towards credibility last year, digging themselves out of the basement of both the NFL and the NFC West by posting a 7-8-1 record. A big part of this was due to the hiring of Jeff Fisher who knows what it takes to make an NFL team succeed and also due to the large haul of picks the team picked up by trading the second overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft to the Washington Redskins, who eventually selected Robert Griffin III and finally through aggressive free agency moves. The Rams are still reaping the rewards of last year’s draft trade with two first round picks in this year’s draft. This team has a young core, but several question marks remain around this organization.

Quarterbacks

Sam Bradford

The 2013 season will be Sam Bradford’s fourth year as an NFL player and as the Rams starting quarterback. However, this will be the first season in which he will have the same Offensive Coordinator for more than one year. For those who can think back a few years, Alex Smith had this same issue and only succeeded when he was able to get some coaching stability. Bradford has already shown some promising improvement last year throwing for more yards and more touchdowns than any of his NFL seasons thus far.

The one thing that has kept Bradford’s numbers suppressed through his career has always been his lack of receivers. Bradford has never had solid long-term receiving talent that extends the field. Sure, he had Brandon Lloyd for a season, but he was a one year rental. He has also had Danny Amendola since he came into the league, but he is only a short range threat. The Rams drafted Chris Givens and Brian Quick last season to help fill this need. Givens has shown a lot of promise and Quick is being brought along slowly.   Clearly, Bradford has had to struggle through a lack of dependable, high-end receivers.

If the Rams can get Bradford a top notch wide receiver, either through free agency or the draft, we could see the true potential of he and the Rams finally unlocked.

Others

The Rams don’t have a high-end, or even particularly viable, quarterback to back up Bradford. The second string option is Kellen Clemens and he only threw three passes last season, third string option Austin Davis has never played a professional down in his career. Nothing about either of these two options inspires much confidence, so a back up with some additional experience might make the Rams faithful more at ease.

Running Backs

Steven Jackson

The demise of Steven Jackson has been predicted for several years now, but amazingly he keeps on chugging. However, this off-season a new rumor has begun cropping up as to why Jackson won’t be a reliable option in the Rams backfield, contract nullification. The talk around NFL circles is that Jackson will opt out of his contract with the Rams to seek a team that is in better position to compete and to get him to the Super Bowl. At the age of 30 this season, few could blame him.

Despite heavy use throughout his career, Jackson has maintained consistency. In his first full year as the Rams starting running back (2005), Jackson maintained a 4.1 average yards per rush. Last season, eight full seasons later, he still maintained a 4.1 average per rush. Both seasons saw him rush for a nearly identical amount of carries, receptions and receiving yards, so his deterioration has yet to appear.

His loss would be significant to the Rams as the team would require one (or both) of their rookie running backs from last year to step up. It might also require a high draft selection of a skilled running back and/or require them to be active in a depleted running back free agent market. For a team deep into their rebuild, this move is both necessary and undesirable at the same time. Just as a child doesn’t want to give up his security blanket, at some point he must in order to grow up. A rebuilding team must do the same at some point; they must give up what is comfortable in order to grow. It will be tough, but sooner or later, it must occur. I think the Rams and Jackson are at the end of their relationship, but parting ways might be best for both at this point.

Daryl Richardson

Richardson was a surprise star for the Rams last season, stepping into the role many believed was being handed to fellow rookie Isaiah Pead on a silver platter. Instead, Richardson moved into the back up role and accumulated just under 100 rushes for 475 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per rush. He added another 24 receptions for 163 yards. These statistics are nothing to sneeze at, but Richardson has to show he can bear the load of a full season as a featured back, something I just don’t feel he is cut out to do mainly due to his size. Richardson is only 5’-10” and weighs roughly 200 pounds, which is roughly the size of Jahvid Best.

Richardson has shown a great burst and his vision is above average, but his frame will likely lead to injuries if he is given 250 to 300 carries a season. Simply put, I can’t see him being the long term answer for the Rams.

Isaiah Pead

Pead came into training camp with very high expectations. He was expected to be the heir apparent to Jackson and receive a good number of carries over the year. Instead, all season long he compiled only ten carries for 54 yards and three receptions for 16 yards – not exactly something to write home about. What is even more alarming is that in those ten carries he fumbled twice. Due in large part to his fumbling issue, Pead lost the back up role to Richardson.

If the Rams are to be successful with the weapons currently on the roster, Pead absolutely must step up, cure his fumbling issue and must, at the very least, split time with Richardson and accumulate over 150 carries next season.

Wide Receivers

Danny Amendola

For those of you who read the Rams capsule last season, I couldn’t stress enough just how good I thought Amendola’s season was going to be. He was injured twice during the season and missed five games in total, but was still able to match his touchdowns total from 2010 (3) and nearly matched his 2010 receiving yards total with 666. Amendola did all of this with roughly 20 fewer receptions, so his output per reception (and per game) increased significantly.

The downside, as I alluded to earlier, was the fact that the injury bug hit Amendola once again this season and cost him five games. As the Rams primary receiver, any time away from the team will hurt the Rams offensive production and Amendola’s last two seasons have proven injury-filled.

A second issue with Amendola’s fantasy value is the fact that he is a free agent and the Rams have been less than fully committed on how they view his future in St. Louis. They also went back and forth on their intention to franchise tag him, which only further clouds his status. If Amendola returns to the Rams next season, look for similar numbers with the possibility of even greater production if he can stay healthy all season.

Chris Givens

Drafted last season in the fourth round, Givens has stepped up to partially fill the need for a consistent wide receiver. He was used sparingly throughout most of the season, usually totaling between zero and two receptions in most of the games he appeared in. However, in a two-week span that occurred at the end of November and beginning of December, Givens erupted for 16 receptions, 207 yards and a touchdown, which means he accumulated roughly a third of his 2012 season statistics in just two games.

As you can see, the talent is clearly there but the big question is whether the commitment from the Rams is there as well.  Ordinarily when a player posts a two-game stretch like Givens did, a team realizes they have something special and continue feeding that player the ball – not so with the Rams and Givens. Following that two week performance, Givens only caught nine more passes in the final four games, totaling only 139 yards with no touchdowns. So, what happened? Simple, Danny Amendola happened. Givens’ hot streak coincided perfectly with a two week absence from Amendola.

It is difficult to pin a solid value on Givens. Is he just a fill in for the Rams when Amendola is out, or is he something beyond that? Ultimately, Givens’ fantasy value will be determined by how the Rams deal with Danny Amendola’s contract situation and how they draft this off-season. Nothing will speak louder for how much confidence they have in Givens to lead their receiving corps.

Brandon Gibson

Gibson is a player wholikely won’t be with the Rams come the start of this season due to the expiration of his contract. However, keep an eye on him as he will likely post a career year wherever he signs next. Why? Simple, his talents will likely be more fully realized than they have been while playing for the Rams. This isn’t a knock on the Rams at all, Gibson has simply been trapped in a wrong place, wrong time scenario. By that I mean he has a good amount of talent, but Amendola has been Sam Bradford’s go-to guy. When Amendola was out and Gibson could display his talents, the Rams brought in Brandon Lloyd and he then became Bradford’s go-to guy. When given the shot to shine, Gibson has never failed. Even playing second (and at times third) fiddle to Amendola and Givens, Gibson still managed to reel in 51 receptions for 691 yards and five touchdowns last season – not too bad for a receiver who has usually been his quarterback’s back-up plan, and at times disappearing completely from the Rams game plan.

With Gibson likely gone, he might finally have the opportunity to play an integral part in a pass first offense. If he can land on the right team and maintain (or even increase) his targets, I have no doubt he can be a 1,000 yard receiver.

Brian Quick

When the Rams drafted Quick in the second round, many, many people wondered what they were thinking. A year later, many are still left wondering. Quick was rarely used throughout the 2012 season, accounting for only 11 receptions and 156 yards. The highlight of his season, however, is the fact that 18% of his receptions (2) went for touchdowns.

Now, with such a small sample size, no one can expect that reception-to-touchdown ratio to continue. The only player over 50 receptions to have a ratio higher than that number was James Jones with 22% of his receptions going for touchdowns, but Quick isn’t even close to 50 receptions, isn’t as natural of a receiver as Jones is and, let’s face it, he doesn’t have Aaron Rodgers throwing to him. So while that kind of sustained output is possible, it isn’t probable for Quick.

What does his fantasy future hold? This is extremely tough to say. Many draft experts think the Rams have to draft a high caliber deep threat for Bradford. If they do, Quick’s numbers, amazingly enough, may drop further than what he posted this season. If the Rams choose to let Amendola and/or Gibson walk in free agency and don’t address the wide receiver position in the draft or free agency, we could see a lot more playing time for Quick. Once again, it all comes down to how the Rams deal with Amendola’s contract negotiations.

Tight Ends

Lance Kendricks

After two years in St. Louis, Kendricks hasn’t even been a fantasy blip on the radar. A lot has been expected from him each off-season, but now coming into his third year I am highly skeptical he has what it takes to even be drafted in most dynasty leagues. Through his two seasons, he has recorded 70 receptions for 871 yards and four touchdowns. For comparisons sake, Jason Witten, the NFL’s top receiving tight end last year, pulled in 110 receptions last season alone – those receptions accounted for 1,039 yards and three touchdowns so Kendricks’ production is clearly far off the mark.

There is talk the Rams may target a tight end in the first two rounds of this year’s draft. If the Rams can get one of the “Killer E’s” (Eifert, Ertz and Escobar) then I’d be 100% behind this move as it would be a clear upgrade.