Dynasty Capsule: Atlanta Falcons

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re also going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

We continue our run with the Atlanta Falcons.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan

After finishing in the middle of the pack during his first three NFL seasons, Ryan has strung together two top ten performances in a row, making him one of the easier “set it and forget it” quarterbacks in the league today.  Armed with two of the top receiving threats in all of football, I don’t think we’ve even come close to seeing what Ryan is truly capable of yet, and that is a very encouraging thought for dynasty owners.

Ryan came on like gangbusters in the first four weeks of the 2012 season putting up a ridiculous stat line of 1,162/11/3 and was neck and neck with Robert Griffin III for not only the top quarterback, but also the highest scoring player in all of fantasy football during that stretch.

If consistency, dedication and improvement are what you’re looking for on your dynasty squad, Ryan is your guy.  He has made significant strides in each of his five NFL seasons and over the last two seasons has thrown for 8,896 yards and 61 touchdowns.

I think a lot of dynasty enthusiasts view last season as Ryan’s ceiling, but I think it was just the tip of the iceberg.  When you consider Atlanta is in “win now” mode, they are going to continue to surround Ryan with top notch talent for many years to come.

Dominique Davis

It seems Davis is destined to become Matt Ryan’s backup.  For the second time since 2007 (when they both played for Boston College) Davis has now backed up Ryan at the collegiate and professional level.  Unless Ryan is severely injured in the future, Davis shouldn’t be rostered in any format unless you have deep rosters or multiple taxi squad spots.

Running Backs

Jacquizz Rodgers

The running back position in Atlanta has been one of the most talked about topics so far this off-season, and for good reason.  I’ve found dynasty owners these days fit into one of two categories.  They are either all in on the Quizz bandwagon, or they think he will never get a shot to be a bell cow type back because of his size and low yards per carry average.  With the release of Michael Turner, Quizz has seemingly stepped into a starting role, at least for the time being.  Reports from Atlanta’s front office have flipped flopped quite a bit in a short amount of time, reporting they view Quizz as a three down back.  Other reports seem to suggest that Atlanta may be getting hot and heavy into the Steven Jackson sweepstakes, making myself and others believe that the latter of the reports have been just Coach/GM talk.

Personally, I don’t view Quizz as a three down back, but he sure is interesting in PPR leagues.  Last season he caught 53 of the 59 passes thrown his way making him one of the more sure handed pass catchers out of the backfield.

The disturbing thing about owning Quizz right now is the recent releases of Dunta Robinson, John Abraham, and Turner that resulted in the Falcons clearing nearly $19 million in cap space.  With all that space they created by cutting those three players, Atlanta seems primed to make a move.  Jackson makes the most sense considering the fact that he has played in a dome his entire career and would be more than capable of being highly productive in Atlanta’s pass first offense.

If I were a Quizz owner, my expectations would be very tempered this season, as well as going forward.  He seems destined to be a change of pace/third down back in my eyes.  Bottom line, I don’t think he’ll ever get a legitimate shot to prove his worth.

Michael Turner (UFA)

As many experts were predicting, Turner has been released by the Falcons.  He has lost a step or seven and probably will never get another shot at starting in the NFL.  Hopefully dynasty owners were able to trade him for whatever small piece someone was willing to give them.  This looks like the beginning of the end for “the burner,” although a running back needy team could sign him in hopes of him becoming a solid goal line back for them.  He isn’t droppable at this point by any means, but his outlook for the 2013 season looks very grim.

Jason Snelling

Besides goal line duties at best, I don’t see where Snelling fits into Atlanta’s scheme going forward.  At one point, dynasty owners considered Snelling a decent stash/handcuff, but those days are all but history.  He can be safely dropped at this point in all formats.

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones

Although he didn’t have as great of a season that many dynasty enthusiasts had envisioned (expectations as we all know, were ridiculously high for Julio last off-season), a stat line of 79/1,198/10 is still an amazing season by anyone’s standards – especially considering the fact that last season was only his second year in the league.  I people prematurely handed the torch to Julio without considering the fact that Roddy White is still playing like he is in the prime of his career.  However, Julio is a threat to take the ball to the house on any given play and is one of the best vertical threats in the game today.

I think that last year’s expectation for Julio will be realized for dynasty owners in the 2013 season.  Coming into the ever important third year of his NFL career, Julio looks primed to take the next step and compete for a top three spot at the  wide receiver position for years to come.  If you can somehow acquire this beast on to your roster you won’t be sorry, although the price you’d have to pay to get him right now is astronomical and can only go up from here.

Roddy White

This guy just keeps getting it done every year, period.  There is no other veteran receiver over the age of 30 I’d rather have on my dynasty roster than White at this point.  Believe it or not, there are owners out there who are willing to part with Roddy for far below market value just because of the fact he is 31 years old.  Never mind the fact that he posted a ridiculous 92/1,351/7 stat line last season and has been a model of consistency for the last seven years.  While his touchdown numbers are down from previous seasons, I believe he will flirt with 100 receptions per season, making him PPR gold for at least two more years.

What really helps Roddy’s future outlook is that injuries have never been a concern for him and opposing defenses will definitely have to focus on preventing Julio from beating them deep.  So even if he loses a step or two as he gets older, it’s hard to imagine someone working the sidelines, the middle of the field or finding that soft spot in a zone better than Roddy.

Since this is a playerwhose value has taken a little bit of a hit lately due to his age, I think if you are a contender, you should just ride him out until he retires unless someone is willing to pony up and give you a reasonable deal that fills your roster with young up and coming talent.

Harry Douglas

Now here is a player who has been highly inconsistent during the entire course of his career.  He doesn’t work well in the slot and doesn’t have the talent to be an outside receiver.  With some of the younger talent in Atlanta fighting for playing time, it’s only a matter of time before Douglas is on the outs with Atlanta.  He shouldn’t be rostered at this point in any format.

Drew Davis

An undrafted free agent out of Oregon, Davis has decent size as 6’1”, 205 pounds.  He finished the yearwith only four receptions, one of which went for a touchdown.  He should be a player who dynasty owners keep an eye on during the off-season to see if his role within the offense is growing.  If anyone in Atlanta ever emerges as a solid WR3 option, they would probably offer WR6-7 value for you dynasty teams.

Kevin Cone

After watching some of his ups and downs in the preseason, I thought Cone would eventually win the WR4 job in Atlanta.  An undrafted free agent rookie out of Georgia Tech in 2011, heoffers good size at 6’2” 215 lbs.  Unfortunately for Cone, an injury cost him most of the 2012 season.  I fully expect Cone and Drew Davis to compete for significant playing time next season depending on who the Falcons draft or sign via free agency.  Could this guy be the next beast who comes out of Georgia Tech?

Tight Ends

Tony Gonzalez

To retire, or not to retire?  That is most definitely the question.

Gonzalez is the best to ever play the tight end position in a lot of peoples eyes, and appears to have plenty in the gas tank to help the Falcons (and your dynasty teams) reach the ultimate goal of winning the Super Bowl next season.  After putting up a stat line of 93/930/8 last season, it’s hard to imagine him retiring while still being able to contribute at such a high level.  Throw in the fact the Falcons are legitimate contenders, it has to make the decision all the more difficult for someone that so desperately wants to reach the Promised Land.

If Gonzalez does return to the Falcons for one last ride, rebuilding teams that own him should definitely be looking to unload him at a fair price to help their team outlook for the future.  Contending teams that are TE needy would be wise to acquire Gonzo at a discount and hopefully ride off with him into the sunset.  At this point we are all just playing the waiting game.

Chase Coffman

If Gonzo were to retire, Coffman could see a slight uptick in his ADP, but only for a short time.  I remember the days when Coffman was considered a decent tight end stash when he was drafted by the Bengals.  He does have some talent, but isn’t a reliable enough pass catcher to earn a starting position on such a pass heavy team.  If and when Gonzo says goodbye the NFL, I think players like Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz and Gavin Escobar will be placed firmly in Atlanta’s crosshairs.