Dynasty Stock Market: The Ups and Downs of Recent WR and TE ADP

Ryan McDowell

justin_blackmon2Over the past two months, I have conducted a total of twelve dynasty startup mock drafts. Many of you have participated in these drafts and I plan to continue them throughout the off-season in preparation for startup drafts and the 2013 fantasy season.

In an off-season full of events, dynasty owners look forward to the Rookie Combine, NFL free agency, the NFL draft and the start of training camps, while I relish the chance to participate in these mock drafts and analyze the data they produce. The most obvious use of the average draft position (ADP) data is in preparing for an upcoming startup draft. While the data is not full proof, it can give owners a good idea of where a specific player may be drafted and when position runs might begin.

The ADP data is not just for owners participating in new leagues, though. Owners in existing dynasty leagues can also use it. I’ll cover just a couple of ways the data could be valuable.

First, owners can use it to evaluate potential trades. Again, this is not the only tool one should use, but it can give owners a good idea of the current market value of certain players. Roster strength and team dynamics would, of course, play a large role in creating a balanced trade in any dynasty league. Another way to use the ADP data is to analyze a dynasty roster. This is something I have been doing lately. In the average startup draft, an owner will leave the draft with one player valued as a first round pick, one valued as a second round pick and so on. If your dynasty team is filled with multiple highly valued players, then you are likely a playoff contender. On the other hand, if your team lacks players routinely being chosen in the first three rounds, it may be time to rebuild and look towards the future – look for more on this idea in the coming weeks!

One of the top ways I make use of the data from month-to-month is by finding the players who experience drastic changes in value. Once I know this, I can use this information to make decisions about buying or selling, or just staying away from specific players. Today, I’ll take a look at some pass catchers, including both tight ends and wide receivers whose value greatly changed from our January mock drafts to February drafts.

Ups

These players have all experienced an increase in value over the one month span. We’ll take a look at the data, some possible reasons for the increase in value and discuss if owners should be buying or selling.

Name

January ADP

February ADP

Increase

% Increase

Jarius Wright

207

182

25

12%

Vincent Brown

144

122

22

15%

Stephen Hill

151

130

21

14%

Michael Crabtree

47

30

17

36%

Ryan Broyles

130

116

14

11%

Joe Adams

241

234

7

3%

TJ Graham

218

211

7

3%

James Jones

96

89

7

7%

Denario Alexander

88

81

7

8%

Justin Blackmon

55

48

7

13%

Percy Harvin

22

16

6

27%

Julian Edelman

203

198

5

2%

Cecil Shorts

81

76

5

6%

Dwayne Bowe

63

58

5

8%

Vincent Jackson

47

42

5

11%

Andre Johnson

42

37

5

12%

AJ Green

6

3

3

50%

There are few surprises on this list of players with increased value. Let’s start at the top. Three young wide receivers led the group, rising over twenty spots each from January to February. It seems that many dynasty owners are projecting big things for the trio, as none of them have proven much in the NFL. Vikings wide receiver Jarius Wright leads the list with an increase of 25 spots. Wright didn’t see any action during his rookie season until week ten, which coincided with the season ending injury to stud wide receiver Percy Harvin. With Harvin out, Wright was a solid contributor for Minnesota, gaining over 300 yards on 22 receptions, including two touchdowns. Considering the lack of depth at the wide receiver spot for the Vikings and the rumors of a possible Harvin trade, it makes sense that Wright’s value would be on the rise. Considering he is still only going in the sixteenth round, there is little risk in taking a shot on him.

Vincent Brown was next on the list, increasing his ADP by 22 spots. This is obviously more conjecture by prospective dynasty owners, as Brown’s career numbers are very similar to those of Wright, though he has played several more games. Brown was lost for the entire 2012 season due to a broken ankle in the preseason. A year ago, the Chargers lost their top wide receiver, Vincent Jackson, via free agency and many tabbed Brown for a breakout season. Instead, he suffered the break and dynasty owners were left to wait another year for the young wide receiver from San Diego State. In 2013, Brown should be able to step in and start opposite of the wide receiver who did break out for the Chargers, Danario Alexander. Brown still offers some upside as an early eleventh rounder, but I’m not sure I would be comfortable if his price rises any more.

Editor’s Note: Be on the lookout for an exclusive interview Vincent Brown coming soon.

As I studied the New York Jets roster last off-season following the draft, I shared with a friend a strange thought I had. At that time, I felt the most valuable dynasty asset on the Jets entire roster was rookie wide receiver Stephen Hill. Although he did not have an especially strong rookie season, that statement probably was true, which says a lot more about the woes of the Jets than it does for Hill. The rookie from Georgia Tech started the season as well as anyone could, scoring two touchdowns in the season’s opening week, to go along with 89 yards. That would be by far his best game of the year as the Jets’ offense struggled as a whole. Hill, as you might expect from a rookie coming from a non-traditional offense, was very inconsistent, playing in five games where he failed to even make a catch. With dynasty owners hoping for upgrades at quarterback, the chances of Hill improving, and even becoming the top wide receiver in that offense, are very good. Like Brown, Hill will also cost you an eleventh rounder. I might be alone in this, but I would actually prefer Hill of the two.

I mentioned it last week in our look at quarterbacks, but each off-season brings a rise in the value of young players, at the expense of veterans, who often lose value during the spring and summer months. That rule is slightly broken by a few top fantasy wide receivers including James Jones (+7 spots), Andre Johnson (+5), Dwayne Bowe (+5) and Vincent Jackson (+5). Even with the increase, the off-season is the best time to acquire veterans who could help your upcoming season be more successful.

One impressive player on the list is Bengals wide receiver AJ Green. According to January ADP data, Green was already the sixth overall player, but his ADP still managed to increase three spots, for a 50% rate increase. This was good enough to make Green the top overall player for February. If I have the top pick in a dynasty startup, Green would be my choice.

Now, let’s take a look at the tight end position and players whose value is on the rise.

Name January ADP February ADP Increase % Increase
Zach Miller 237 216 21 9%
Vernon Davis 80 72 8 10%
Delanie Walker 241 234 7 3%
Aaron Hernandez 37 30 7 19%
Greg Olsen 118 112 6 5%
Kyle Rudolph 77 71 6 8%

While the wide receiver list had few surprises, the tight end list certainly has its share, topped by Seahawks tight end Zach Miller. Miller was largely undrafted in our January mocks, but in February, his ADP climbed over twenty spots, although he is still a late rounder. I cannot explain the sudden love for Miller, nor can I endorse it. I liked him a lot while in Oakland and expected big things when he signed a big free agent contract with Seahawks, yet he has been a big disappointment, gaining just over 600 yards in his two seasons in the Great Northwest. Unless your league has over thirty roster spots, I can’t see Miller being worth rostering.

The next big climber is another player who has benefitted from his Super Bowl success. Vernon Davis, much like Colin Kaepernick, Joe Flacco and Michael Crabtree, has seen his ADP rise after his appearance in the Big Game. In the Super Bowl against the Ravens, Davis had six grabs for over 100 yards, which was one of his best games of the season. I see one big tier of tight ends after the top three of Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez, and Davis is near the top of that tier. My concern is I’m not sure there’s enough difference between him and others like Jermaine Gresham, Dennis Pitta or even Martellus Bennett to justify using a sixth round pick on him.

Downs

When some players go up, others must come down. Not only do the players below have to deal with all of the normal issues that can affect the dynasty value, like injuries, position battles and uncertainty about their future. Now though, they, and all other veterans also must deal with the inclusion of incoming rookies further deflating their value and ADP. Although the draft class as a whole is viewed as weak, the wide receiver group is regarded as very deep and many rookies were drafted in our February mocks.

Name

January ADP

February ADP

Decrease

% Decrease

Brandon Lloyd

95

157

-62

65%

Doug Baldwin

186

241

-55

30%

Leonard Hankerson

156

210

-54

35%

Darrius Heyward-Bey

148

201

-53

36%

Brandon LaFell

139

188

-49

35%

Andre Roberts

184

211

-37

15%

Dexter McCluster

189

222

-33

17%

Nate Washington

199

232

-33

17%

Davone Bess

201

234

-33

16%

Sidney Rice

101

133

-32

32%

Jon Baldwin

136

168

-32

24%

Jeremy Kerley

174

206

-32

18%

Lestar Jean

209

241

-32

15%

Donnie Avery

193

224

-31

16%

Greg Little

104

133

-29

28%

Denarius Moore

74

102

-28

38%

Golden Tate

129

154

-25

19%

Nick Toon

208

230

-22

11%

Rod Streater

160

180

-20

13%

Titus Young

185

205

-20

11%

LaVon Brazill

202

221

-19

9%

Miles Austin

73

91

-18

25%

Dwayne Harris

223

241

-18

8%

Rueben Randle

111

128

-17

15%

Robert Meachem

219

235

-16

7%

Santonio Holmes

147

162

-15

10%

Emmanuel Sanders

131

146

-15

12%

Anquan Boldin

177

192

-15

9%

Greg Jennings

54

67

-13

24%

Danny Amendola

74

87

-13

18%

Marvin Jones

165

178

-13

8%

Wes Welker

48

60

-12

25%

Kenny Britt

55

67

-12

22%

This is a huge list of players whose value has dropped over the past month, but many of the reasons are fairly obvious. Now is your best opportunity to make a play at acquiring some of these players, while others should be far down your target list, if they make an appearance at all.

The biggest faller, according to both draft spots and percentage was Patriots wide receiver Brandon Lloyd. Over the past few weeks, speculation has been that the Patriots would waive Lloyd. The past couple of seasons, Lloyd’s crutch has been New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Lloyd followed McDaniels to St. Louis, then Denver, followed by New England. Although that relationship led to solid seasons the previous two years, it just didn’t work for Lloyd and the Patriots. Although his numbers were not terrible (74 receptions for 911 yards and four touchdowns), considering many were predicting a WR1 finish for Lloyd, he was a bust. Without the top offense of New England and considering he will be 32 years old by the start of the 2013 season, the fantasy value of Lloyd has fallen off the cliff.

One common thread I noticed among these many names is the fact that several of these players were once being hyped as up and coming wide receivers, ready to break out. Among the players who have continually disappointed owners are Leonard Hankerson, Jon Baldwin, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Brandon LaFell, Greg Little and Robert Meachem. While these players have not lived up to the billing they have often received, I am not ready to give up on all of them. At their current value and considering how much their teams need a wide receiver to step up, Hankerson, Baldwin and Little all offer solid value.

Another trend among some of the names on this list is their uncertain status for 2013. Along with Lloyd, there are many others whose destination remains a mystery. Greg Jennings, Wes Welker and Danny Amendola are all free agents and could be headed for new teams. For dynasty owners, this can be a frightening thought. A player’s value is usually closely tied to the team they play for, the offense their team runs and the players they are surrounded by. For this trio, each of those have been a benefit to the wide receiver, but that could change with one poor decision to chase the money rather than find an ideal fit. If my dynasty team is a likely contender in 2013, each of these players makes perfect options to add and likely slot in as a fantasy starter for yet another season.

There is also a group of three young wide receivers that have lost a bit of value, but I cannot explain the cause. I would gladly take a shot on any of these three, especially if they can be had on the cheap. Oakland wide receivers Denarius Moore and Rod Streater both excelled for the struggling Raiders and Giants Rueben Randle flashed enough ability to make me want to see more. I think both Moore and Randle are worth first round rookie picks, but would gladly pay less for them if I could. Streater seems to be disrespected, possibly because of his status as an undrafted free agent. On 39 catches, he had 584 yards and three scores and elevated himself to starter’s status, despite being buried in the depth chart early in the season.

There were plenty of tight ends who fell down the ranks as well. While there are a few rookie tight ends affecting the draft position of these veterans, that is not the primary cause for these huge drops. Six tight ends fell more than forty spots.

Name

January ADP

February ADP

Decrease

% Decrease

Brent Celek

147

221

-74

50%

Jacob Tamme

167

241

-74

44%

Fred Davis

125

170

-45

36%

Antonio Gates

125

167

-42

34%

Jermichael Finley

95

136

-41

43%

DJ Williams

200

241

-41

21%

Dustin Keller

194

231

-37

19%

Coby Fleener

142

178

-36

25%

Brandon Pettigrew

112

144

-32

29%

Martellus Bennett

144

176

-32

22%

Tony Gonzalez

165

197

-32

19%

Lance Kendricks

186

214

-28

15%

Owen Daniels

113

137

-24

21%

Tony Moeaki

226

241

-15

7%

Dwayne Allen

126

140

-14

11%

Jordan Cameron

180

192

-12

7%

Brandon Myers

164

175

-11

7%

Taylor Thompson

208

219

-11

5%

Ladarius Green

218

227

-9

4%

As I mentioned earlier, after the top three tight ends, you have a huge tier of average tight ends. It is evident that others agree with this as many tight ends fell in our February mocks. Among the tight ends that are solid enough to be fantasy starters, yet don’t stand out from the crowd are Fred Davis, Jermichael Finley, Brandon Pettigrew, Martellus Bennett, Owen Daniels and Brandon Myers. With the option to wait until much later in the draft to take one of these players, there is little reason to use a pick in the first ten rounds, assuming you miss out on the Big Three. Because of that, it is not surprising to see each of these players drop, yet the majority of these players provide solid value at their current price.

The players I am surprised to see are some of the top young tight ends in the game, including Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, Jordan Cameron, Taylor Thompson and Ladarius Green. Each of these players are young athletic tight ends, some in the mold of the top tight ends like Graham and Gronkowski and offer great upside at their respective draft position. Their drop is likely caused by the drop of the veteran starters already mentioned. Because of that, owners likely felt they could wait even longer to grab their young backup tight end. If this situation plays out the same way in your startup draft, enjoy plucking some nice tight end value late in your draft.

Next time, I’ll take a look at the running backs that are experiencing a drastic change in value.

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ryan mcdowell