Dynasty Capsule: New York Jets

Jaron Foster Posted On March 6, 2013

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re also going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

We continue our path through the NFL with the New York Jets.

Quarterbacks

Mark Sanchez

It’s very telling that Sanchez went undrafted in all six January DLF mock drafts. Terrelle Pryor, Chad Henne, and Kirk Cousins were among those drafted at least once, but not the 26-year-old quarterback with 61 starts over the last four seasons. Even Tim Tebow had a suitor.

Despite finishing tied with Michael Vick for 10^th in fantasy points at the position in 2011, Sanchez was generally drafted as a low-QB2 or high-QB3 prior to the 2012 season. Especially at what has turned out to be a very deep position, his performance didn’t even merit being selected this high. Playing in 15 games, Sanchez averaged less than 200 passing yards, less than a touchdown and more than an interception per game. He also rushed for no touchdowns in 2012 after punching in six scores in 2011.

Although Jets general manager John Idzik has already said that Sanchez will need to win his job back next year, his predecessor left him with a major obstacle – a lucrative contract extension for the quarterback through 2016. Though there’s only guaranteed money remaining for 2013, it’s a substantial $8.25 million and they’re already $20 million over the cap. Finding a trade partner is unlikely, so the most probable situation is a training camp competition. Even if he wins his job, his performance and ADP should keep him on the fantasy waiver wire.

Tim Tebow

While the Jets would prefer to trade him, Tebow will likely get cut in an effort to save cap space on a rebuilding roster. Though his throwing mechanics have well-publicized flaws, Tebow’s athleticism, leadership skills, and popularity will lead to a training camp invite in some capacity in 2013.

Greg McElroy

After being handed the starting job, McElroy threw for an uninspiring 185 yards with no touchdowns and one interception against San Diego in week 16. His actions after the game got more press as it was reported that he tried to conceal a concussion from his coaches before being ruled out for the final game of the season.

Without a solid commitment to Sanchez going into next season, McElroy appears to have a shot at winning the starting quarterback job. He’s a smart player with good accuracy, but poor arm strength and a lack of mobility create doubt in his potential to be a consistent quarterback in the NFL. Any starting NFL quarterback should be on your radar, particularly in deeper leagues, so keep an eye on the competition in training camp, but the upside here is limited.

Running Backs

Bilal Powell

With Shonn Greene likely out the door via free agency, Powell becomes the closest option the Jets have to a feature back. Throughout the 2012 season, the team tried to see what they had in the second year player out of Louisville with at least ten carries in six games, including five of the last seven. Overall, he produced just under 4.0 yards per carry with four rushing touchdowns and added 17 receptions for 140 yards.

Though he’s shown some promise, Powell’s just not a very explosive runner (though better than Greene) and is a better fit as a complementary back, so if the Jets decide to feature him it will likely be due to financial restrictions. Sliding into Greene’s role, expect similar numbers. Getting 250 carries at 4.0 yards per carry will back him into 1,000 yards and half a dozen touchdowns, along with a reception or two per game – this would put him in low-RB2 or flex territory, but there isn’t a lot of upside.

Joe McKnight

Although he has shown playmaking abilities, primarily on special teams, McKnight hasn’t been given many opportunities as a rusher. Behind two backs on the depth chart who have similar plodding running styles, it’s curious he hasn’t been used more as a change of pace back. Off-field issues (particularly fighting with teammates), as well as the ongoing struggle to stay healthy are likely the primary reasons he hasn’t received more carries. His success in the return game could be a limiting factor as well.

Regardless of the reason, the Jets need someone to complement Powell, and their best option in-house is McKnight. At the very least, he could be more serviceable on passing downs as evidenced by his average of eleven yards per reception over the last two seasons. If he’s given more opportunity on offense, McKnight could be a sneaky bye-week fill in, especially in PPR leagues.

Shonn Greene (UFA)

Throughout his career, Greene has consistently averaged around 4.0 yards per carry. As his opportunities increased following the departure of Thomas Jones, this consistency translated to consecutive 1,000 yard rushing seasons with a handful of touchdowns. Due to his lack of explosiveness, with just two rushes over 20 yards in 2012, Greene needs carries to put up valuable fantasy statistics.

Unlikely to return due to salary cap restrictions and the poor fit in the offensive scheme, teams like Atlanta, Miami and St. Louis could be options for Greene to serve in a RBBC with smaller complementary backs.

Lex Hilliard (UFA)

After getting cut by New England, Hilliard was signed by the Jets as insurance for a shoulder injury to Powell in mid-October. Primarily a fullback, he received a dozen touches for 54 yards. He’s irrelevant for fantasy purposes regardless of where he lands this off-season.

Wide Receivers

Santonio Holmes

Prior to his Lisfranc injury in week four against the 49ers, Holmes had been off to a good start to the 2012 season. The catch that ended his season was his 20^th in less than four full games, putting him on pace for an 80 catch, 1,000 yard, four touchdown season. Of course, many variables would have contributed to whether or not that was probable, but it would not have been an anomaly in career statistics for the troubled yet talented receiver.

Expected to be fully recovered for the 2013 season, Holmes re-enters the fold in a situation that is possibly worse than when he exited. With uncertainty at multiple positions and already far over the salary cap, the Jets may need to consider trading Holmes or restructuring his contract. New York owes him too much to outright release him. The outlook is murky for the 2013 season, but as Holmes is being drafted in DLF mocks as the WR59 (low-WR5 in 12 team leagues) and at #147 overall (round #13), he may be worth a deep stash.

Stephen Hill

Inactive following week 12 and placed on IR due to knee surgery, Hill’s season ended with just 21 catches for 252 yards and three touchdowns. Take out the 5/89/2 line in week one, and there wasn’t much value at all. While receivers haven’t historically been expected to perform well in their rookie seasons and Hill was considered to be a very raw talent, the platform that is New York had set expectations high, particularly considering the Jets traded up in the draft to secure him.

The second-year receiver showed flashes of his high upside in 2012 and should improve all areas of his game this season. He’s as boom-or-bust as any fantasy receiver, but being taken (on average) in the round #13 as a WR6 is great value for his upside.

Jeremy Kerley

Receiving an even 100 targets on the season, Kerley was one of the few pleasant surprises for the Jets in 2012. His 56 receptions for 827 yards and two touchdowns was good for about ten points a game in PPR leagues, and though unspectacular, the production was generally consistent throughout the season.

Expect Kerley right back in the slot next season, hopefully (for his owners’ sake) with improved quarterback play and healthy receivers on the outside to draw coverage. The likely departure of Dustin Keller could also make him more of a featured target in the middle of the field.

Clyde Gates

Following a quiet season in Miami, Gates joined their division rival in 2012. He was a popular waiver wire addition after hauling in nine receptions for 82 yards in week eight, but followed that up with three poor performances before being inactive in consecutive weeks. In week 16, Gates showed chemistry with McElroy under center as he led the Jets in receiving with 65 yards. The roller coaster season ended with just one missed target from Sanchez in week 17. With Holmes expected back and uncertainty at the quarterback position, Gates can be ignored in fantasy for now.

Jordan White

Cut in the preseason after being drafted out of Western Michigan, White was resigned but didn’t appear in a game until week 17. Sanchez targeted White three times for one 13 yard gain. He’s depth on an NFL team, but not a dynasty roster.

Braylon Edwards (UFA)

In his second tour as a Jet, Edwards caught ten passes for 125 yards after registering just one reception in ten games for Seattle. With few offers sent his way and New York’s search for inexpensive receivers, Edwards could return next season. However, his fantasy relevant days are likely behind him.

Chaz Schilens (UFA)

Receiving between three and five targets in a game 11 times in 2012, Schilens caught 28 of 41 targets (68%) for 289 yards and two touchdowns. The perennial sleeper is once again a free agent, and is likely to find a job elsewhere in 2013. He holds minimal fantasy value, especially given his injury history, but is worth monitoring depending on his landing spot.

Tight Ends

Konrad Reuland

Claimed from San Francisco, Reuland appeared primarily as a blocker in all 16 games. Even with Keller sidelined for half the season, the second year tight end out of Stanford caught only 11 passes for 83 yards in 2012. He is unlikely to see enough action to merit fantasy consideration next season.

Hayden Smith

The big Australian rugby player caught only one pass all season – a 16-yard reception from McElroy in week 16. He’s still incredibly raw and even if you are looking at long-term projects there are better options. Taylor Thompson and Ladarius Green come to mind and both actually have played football before. Leave Smith on the waiver wire.

Jeff Cumberland (RFA)

With Keller an unrestricted free agent, Cumberland could become the de-facto starter. A total of 18 of his 29 receptions in 2012 came when Keller was inactive, and he totaled 359 yards with three touchdowns overall. Having gone undrafted in all DLF January mocks, even if given the full-time job, Cumberland would serve only as fantasy roster depth.

Dustin Keller (UFA)

Following steady improvement in his first four years in the NFL, which culminated with a 65 catch and 815 yard season in 2011 (good for 9^th among TEs), Keller’s 2012 was mostly lost due to injury. In his eight games on the field, his 28 receptions and 317 yards with two touchdowns were best left on the waiver wire. The Jets would reportedly like to re-sign Keller, though he may command more than the team is willing to commit. When healthy, Keller can be a solid TE2 on a fantasy team.

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Jaron Foster

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

A data analyst by profession, Jaron has been writing for DLF since 2012. Native New Englanders, Jaron and his wife are introducing their son (2010) and daughter (2014) to the Patriots. You can regularly find him on Twitter and in the DLF Forum at odd hours.