Dynasty Capsule: New Orleans Saints

Jeff Haverlack

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re also going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

We continue our path through the NFL with the New Orleans Saints.

Quarterbacks

Drew Breesbrees

At the helm of the high-octane offense that is the New Orleans Saints, Drew Brees continues to post impressive fantasy stats year-over-year.  Depending on your scoring system, Brees was likely your top fantasy point producer in 2012.  And at a young 34 years of age, he shows no signs of slowing down any time soon.

With his second straight year of 5,000+ (5,177) yards of passing offense and 40+ (43) touchdowns, Brees continues to make his case for being the top quarterback off the board.  While the Saints no doubt struggled in 2012, the offense continues to hum along without missing a beat.  Leading receiver Marques Colston isn’t getting any younger (29), but his knees continue to buck the test of time and his ten touchdowns were the most since 2011.  Flying under the radar is second wide  receiver Lance Moore who continues to be a valuable outlet.  Make no mistake in that Brees’ continued dominance is largely due to the invaluable tight end, Jimmy Graham, whose 85 receptions on 135 targets provides too much for opposing defenses to handle.

Looking to 2013, we see no reason to believe Brees will return to earth anytime soon.  For fantasy coaches looking to compete now, he remains a top selection at the position and one you can likely bank of for at least three more years to come.

Chase Daniel

Daniel did complete 100% of his passes in 2012, but that came on a single attempt, good for ten yards.  Playing behind the extremely durable Brees isn’t the best way for a young quarterback to see the field, but Daniel will continue to learn from the best for as long as he remains in New Orleans.  There’s always the potential that he’ll will be eyed as a potential starter in the future as the backup in a high-powered offense, but he’s not said to have a tremendous following.  Nine total attempts in three years will do that to one’s stock.

Running Backs

Mark Ingram

Ingram did lead all Saints backs in 2012, but his 602 yards and 3.9 yards per carry average isn’t going to generate much buzz heading into 2013.  The Saints possess running backs in spades and Ingram was finally healthy in 2012, playing in all 16 games.  How things fall out in 2013 remain to be seen as questions continue to linger as to who will be retained and who will emerge as the lead back.

At 23 years of age, he would certainly seem to be the odds-on favorite to lead all backfield runners in 2013.  With 156 attempts last year, he did find the end zone five times, hinting at the possibilities of what could be should the Saints choose to feature him.  But with other such names as Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and Travaris Cadet in the mix, the term “lead back” is likely to change game to game.  For fantasy owners of Ingram, 2013 is likely to be another frustrating year as there won’t be enough touches to provide anything more than an emergency starter role.  Receptions out of the backfield will be few and Ingram will have to make his ten touches a game count within the red zone.

As a buy-low target, Ingram does have some value.

Darren Sproles

Sproles will turn 30 before kickoff of the 2013 season, but anyone who has seen him run realizes that the reduced role over the past years has led to a much fresher and young-legged player.  In fact, as a runner, Sproles only amassed 48 totes in 2012, nearly half as many from the year earlier.  He continues to do his damage in the passing game, reeling in 75 receptions last year and 87 in 2011.  In PPR leagues, he’s got value that many bypass too easily.

Looking to 2013, Sproles should continue to be a workhorse in league formats featuring PPR and flex positions. He’s under contract through 2014 and we have every reason to believe that he’ll be very productive over those next two years.

Pierre Thomas

Much like his backfield running mate, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas has two years remaining on his contract and there’s nothing indicating that he’ll be anything other than what he has over the past two seasons for the Saints – a reliable back who will receive 100+ rushing attempts and 35+ receptions.  Now 28 years of age, he will yield lead-back duties to Ingram as well as third-down duties to Sproles, but he’s still active in the offense and largely serves as that change of pace back who is a willing and capable blocker and a tough runner, still averaging 4.5 yards per carry in 2012.

Thomas still has to be rostered in dynasty leagues, but he’s a frustrating back to own due to his status as not even a productive emergency back fill-in.  Multiple events will need to occur before he is, again, a productive back and his best days are certainly behind him.  He has little trade value via sending or acquisition and he’ll likely only fill a roster spot on your roster until he fades out of the NFL altogether.

Chris Ivory

Chris Ivory is arguably the most notable back for the Saints in 2013.  Not due to his ability to command a greater share of the rushing attack but, instead, due to his restricted free agency status.  Ivory is on the radar of multiple teams and the Saints have yet to determine exactly how to tender the soon-to-be 25 year old runner.

Over his career, he’s has averaged better than 5.0 yards per carry and is a poor man’s Marshawn Lynch.  Much like Lynch earlier in his career, Chris Ivory has been anything but durable, never appearing in more than 12 games (2010) in a single season.  But while oft-injured, he’s well known as a punishing downhill runner that can churn out yardage.  He’s teased fantasy owners with what could be, should he put together a full season of play.  The Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals all could come calling if the Saints choose to tender him at his original-round level.  As an undrafted free agent, Ivory would receive offers the Saints likely won’t be able to match.

He’s one to watch in 2013 and one to acquire if you can catch an owning coach napping.

Travaris Cadet

The preseason emergence of Travaris Cadet increases the likelihood that Ivory may be departing in 2013.  Cadet continues to receive interest in fantasy as a young back with upside in a high-powered offense.  But with one career carry and a stacked backfield above him on the depth chart, it’s likely going to be at least two years before Cadet begins to show real promise.  He’s a bottom of  the roster player in fantasy until he starts receiving meaningful touches.

Wide Receivers

Marques Colston

We have to hand it to Marques Colston.  Every time we believe we’ve begun to see the decline, he refuses to go down and, instead, posts notable fantasy numbers for owners willing to hold him.

His 83 receptions, 132 targets and ten touchdowns makes for a low-end WR1 in fantasy and there’s nothing that makes us believe we’ll see a significant decline in 2013.  He’s locked up until 2017 and he’s going to retire a Saint.  Without a proven up-and-coming big receiver to take his place or his receptions, Colston will continue to garner looks from Drew Brees.   He hasn’t played a full season since 2009, but missing a game or two within each campaign isn’t enough to fly a significant durability flag.

We continue to be concerned about his knees and we won’t be surprised at any point if his season ends early, but until that occurs, Colston makes for a high-upside WR2 in fantasy.

Lance Moore

Pesky Lance Moore is a dangerous weapon on Sundays out of your flex position.  We can’t count the number of times that Moore has stepped up to post significant fantasy numbers when least expected.

Not a free agent until 2016, Moore lines up all over the field for the Saints and his 65 receptions and six touchdowns are about what we expect year over year.  Heading into 2013, we’re not seeing anything that will reduce his production and, in fact, we won’t be surprised if he has a career season.  Draft him in the middle rounds as a routine flex play.

Devery Henderson

Nothing official yet, but the 2013 free agent isn’t likely to be back with the Saints.  21 receptions and one touchdown in 2013 isn’t enough to generate much intrigue looking forward but in the right offense, he could better those numbers rather easily.  When considering other teams, the Patriots and Seahawks would be intriguing options.

Joe Morgan

With the impending free agency status of Henderson, we like the opportunity that should present itself for Joe Morgan.  A DLF forum favorite time and again, Morgan has yet to produce significantly on the field, but that hasn’t stopped his name from being oft-discussed.  With only ten receptions in 2012,   there would seemingly be more smoke than fire.  But considering that three of those ten receptions went for touchdowns, there’s reason to believe that Brees will look for Morgan often as his reps continue to increase.

Morgan has a long way to go before being a game day weapon, but with his receptions set to increase and the offense in which he plays in, now is the time to add him if he’s available in your league.

Nick Toon

At 6’3″ and 218 lbs., Nick Toon was a hot topic during 2012’s preseason – this was more due to the Saints’ offensive respect than Toon’s abilities as a receiver, but that’s not to say that Toon doesn’t have ability.  Out of Wisconsin, Toon has great size, enough speed and a good set of hands.  Again, we upgrade him due to the offense that he plays in and he’s a bottom of the roster player in fantasy, but he has upside and that’s enough for us to believe that he should be owned in deeper leagues.

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham

Graham had a nice year featuring 85 receptions, 982 yards and nine touchdowns.   If not for a missed game in 2012, Graham likely would have scored double digit touchdowns and eclipsed 1,000 yards for the second year in a row.  Regardless, he was still the TE1 in fantasy.

Looking forward to the 2013 season, expect another impressive year from Drew Brees’ favorite target.  Few tight ends are start-up draft first round targets, but we’re not surprised to see Graham go off the board late in the first round, especially in drafts awarding the tight end position 1.5 points per reception.  Durable, of great character and still only 26 years of age, Graham will be a main-stay at the top of the tight end cheat sheets for many years to come.

Mike Higgins

Higgins averages one reception and .5 yards …. per year.  Now second on the depth chart after the Saints waived veteran tight end Dave Thomas, Higgins is in for a significant increase in production.  He may even eclipse five receptions in 2013.

Maybe.

jeff haverlack