Dynasty Capsule: New England Patriots

Jaron Foster

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re also going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

We continue our path through the NFL with the New England Patriots.

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady

tom_bradyOnly eight points behind leader Drew Brees in 2012 standard fantasy points, Brady threw for 4,827 yards and a 34:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio while chipping in four scores on the ground as well. In both total yards and total touchdowns, 2012 was Brady’s second best season (to 2011) since his record-breaking 50 TD season in 2007. By most fantasy standards, Brady is still at the top of his game.

However, dynasty owners are already beginning to shy away. Turning 36 in August, Brady has started 175 regular season games and another 24 postseason games in his 13 year career. How much tread is really left on the tires?

There’s no doubt if you’re looking short-term, Brady is still a great option. There are question marks surrounding him, with not only Wes Welker in limbo on a long-term deal or franchise tag, but widespread speculation that Brandon Lloyd will be cut. At right tackle, Sebastian Vollmer is in a similar contract situation as Welker. Marcus Cannon has shown promise, but he is likely better suited at guard, potentially leaving a gaping hole on the right side of the line.

How you value Brady in dynasty rests entirely in your team’s outlook. If you’re in a position to win in the next couple of years, he’s still in the top tier of quarterbacks. If you’re looking longer-term, you should be able to get a good return at this point. In DLF mock drafts, Brady has recently gone on average as the ninth quarterback and in the middle of the fifth round. Even with the number of quality quarterbacks on the rise, for the statistics he’ll give you, that’s a good value.

Ryan Mallett

Drafted out of Arkansas as a project on and off the field, the 6’6″ Mallett was graded as a (high) first round talent but fell to the third round due to the infamous “character issue” tag. If he has worked through some of these problems, and the unexpected cut of Brian Hoyer in the preseason last year indicates he has, Mallett’s stock will rise as the heir to the throne in New England.

Just one Bernard Pollard hit away from a starting job, Mallett is garnering some trade interest, but should remain as the backup to Tom Terrific for at least the 2012 season. Mallett will either be Brady’s successor whenever his mentor decides to retire or he’ll be traded to a team willing to give up value to make him their starter, so he’s certainly worth a stash on a dynasty roster. It will likely cost a pick in round 18 or 19 and could pay off huge down the road.

Mike Kafka

Unless Mallett gets traded, Kafka won’t have any fantasy value. New England usually carries only two quarterbacks on its 53-man roster.

Running Backs

Stevan Ridley

Owners who gambled on the supposed new lead running back in a Bill Belichick offense were rewarded with top-ten production in standard scoring leagues. Catching only six passes all season dropped him to #14 in PPR leagues, which is high-RB2 territory. Having been drafted in the sixth round on average prior to 2012, Ridley proved to be a great value.

His breakout Sophomore season included 1,263 rushing yards and a dozen touchdowns. He did fumble four times (losing two), perpetuating his reputation for turnovers that has put him in his head coach’s doghouse on multiple occasions. However, his size, deceptive speed and blocking ability make him a solid number one rusher in a passing offense. His early draft position in the middle of the third round as the #13 running back being taken overall is a good indicator of where you should target him.

Shane Vereen

Drafted one round ahead of Ridley in the 2011 NFL Draft, Vereen began to show his superior pass-catching abilities with an increased third-down role in the playoffs against Houston and Baltimore. Whether Woodhead returns remains to be seen, but Vereen should have an increased role in 2013 either way. He caught almost as many passes in two playoff games as he had all season, one for a highlight-reel touchdown.

The breakout season from Ridley will limit Vereen’s presence on the field, though he has more to offer than being a third-down back exclusively. At the 2011 NFL Combine, he led all running backs as he benched 225 pounds 31 times. He’s got great vision and is strong at gaining yards after initial contact.

Vereen is currently being drafted as a low RB4 in the eleventh round in early mock drafts, which is probably in line with being a change-of-pace back who will catch a few passes a game. However, his ceiling is higher than many of the players being taken ahead of him (Rashard Mendenhall, DeAngelo Williams and Mark Ingram to name a few). I’d rather gamble on Vereen’s upside, especially if Woodhead leaves in free agency.

Brandon Bolden

With a similar build and style to Ridley, Bolden rushed for 274 yards and two touchdowns on plays where New England’s lead back was taking a rest. From week four on, Bolden averaged 5.3 yards per carry. He’s at least third on the depth chart, pending Woodhead’s status, so there isn’t much opportunity at the moment. An injury to Ridley (or a case of the fumbles) and he could be fantasy relevant, so Bolden may be worth stashing on deep rosters.

Jeff Demps

At Florida, Demps averaged 6.7 yards per carry and totaled 2,951 yards from scrimmage with 24 touchdowns over his collegiate career. New England signed Demps to a three year contract following the Summer Olympics, though he was widely considered to be utilized primarily as a return man.

Before he could get very far in the NFL, Demps suffered a leg injury during the preseason that landed him on injured reserve. His speed is intriguing, but he has yet to do anything in the NFL worthy of a fantasy roster spot.

Danny Woodhead (UFA)

For three seasons, Woodhead has served primarily as New England’s third-down back. He hasn’t put up big fantasy numbers, but chips in with a few receptions per game and a handful of touchdowns.

Vereen has seemingly passed Woodhead on the depth chart and is gaining Brady’s trust, so the five year veteran may find employment elsewhere this off-season. Woodhead’s size and skill set will limit his opportunities, but he has proven to be a decent fill-in flex play in PPR leagues.

Wide Receivers

Brandon Lloyd

Expectations were high as Lloyd followed Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels to New England, but despite 130 targets in 2012 he finished just 26th in PPR fantasy points. In comparison, Marques Colston received the same number of targets, but tied with Julio Jones for #12 among wide receivers.

While 74 receptions, 911 yards and four touchdowns are respectable numbers, Lloyd didn’t provide a “game-changing” presence on the field. His 12.3 yards per reception were the lowest in his career after being signed to stretch the field and he only caught nine passes 20 or more yards downfield. Off the field, Lloyd was considered a distraction and poor teammate. Apparently, the Patriots view the cons outweighing the pros as reports indicate Lloyd will be released from his sixth NFL team.

There were a few highlight reel catches in 2012, and he did produce as a high-WR3 so there is potential for fantasy relevance in 2013. Drafted as a WR6 in round fourteen of early DLF mock drafts, he could provide value depending on his role in a new offense.

Kamar Aiken

Though one of only two wide receivers under contract (with Lloyd presumed to be out the door), Aiken is not expected to contribute much to the Patriots’ active roster in 2013 and shouldn’t be on yours.

Matthew Slater

Slater is a smart and talented football player, having made two straight Pro Bowls and is a captain for the Patriots. Unfortunately for fantasy purposes, all his accolades are on special teams and he has only caught one pass in his NFL career. Unless his role changes, he’s not worth a spot on your roster 

Donte Stallworth

After catching a 63 yard touchdown pass in a blowout of the Texans, Stallworth landed on injured reserve in December. The reception was his only one of the 2012 season. At 32 years old, Stallworth hasn’t been a factor in fantasy leagues since 2007 and can be left on the waiver wire.

Wes Welker (UFA)

In his six seasons in New England, Welker has averaged 112 receptions and 1,243 yards each season. However, despite these incredible numbers, Welker is perhaps the most common name in the “best dynasty sell candidate” conversation. Age (32 in May) and money (he wants “outside receiver” money) are against him in his desire for a long-term deal with the Patriots and the franchise tag could better be used on either Aqib Talib or Sebastian Vollmer. If he moves to another team, the big question will be how much his success was a product of the New England system.

Still, Welker’s production has yet not declined and the lucrative contract he’ll get will guarantee a prominent role in his team’s offense. In early DLF mock drafts, Welker is being drafted as a low-WR2 or high-WR3, which makes him a great value (especially if he returns to the Patriots). As is the case with Brady, your dynasty team’s competitiveness will dictate whether Welker is worth drafting around the sixth round. If your goal is to win now, in PPR leagues he is still a solid WR2. With all the negative discussion, drafting or trading for Welker won’t cost you as much as it did a year ago.

Julian Edelman (UFA)

For the first time since his rookie season in 2009, Edelman showed signs of life on offense. In the slot, he was targeted 36 times for 21 receptions and 235 yards and three touchdowns. If Welker leaves and Edelman is retained by the Patriots, he could fill the vacant slot role and provide excellent value as he’s currently being drafted as a WR7 in the seventeenth round. Alternately, he could continue to be used primarily as a return man on special teams and hold little offensive value.

It will be worth monitoring Edelman this off-season as he could prove to be a great value in the right situation.

Deion Branch (UFA)

Once Brady’s go-to receiver, Branch only caught 16 passes for 145 yards in 2012. Turning 34 in July, the receiver may return, but certainly will not have a prominent role in the offense.

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski

Drafting Gronkowski prior to the 2012 season likely cost a second round pick, though it wasn’t uncommon to see him go at the end of round one. Unfortunately for his owners, regular “questionable” designations starting in week four only ended following a week 11 forearm injury that resulted in him missing the next five games (the remainder of the fantasy season in most leagues). However, through week 11, the production was solid as Gronkowski averaged five receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown per game, good for the top scoring tight end in PPR and standard scoring leagues alike.

Despite offseason surgery after being placed on injured reserve in the playoffs, dynasty owners are not shying away from the record-setting tight end. Although Jimmy Graham was the top scoring tight end when the 2012 season was said and done, Gronkowski has been first off the board at the position at #17 overall in DLF mock drafts this off-season. The forearm may be a concern, but prior to the injury, Gronkowski hadn’t missed any games with the Patriots. If medical reports clear him heading into 2013, there’s no reason not to expect similar elite statistics. Whether that’s worth a first round draft pick is up to you, but I’d prefer to grab a top running back (or either Calvin Johnson or AJ Green) and hope Gronkowski’s available in the second round.

Aaron Hernandez

When he’s on the field, Hernandez (84 targets in ten regular season games in 2012) has actually been targeted more frequently than Gronk (79 targets in 11 games). An extremely versatile “tight end,” Hernandez is frequently split out wide or even lined up in the backfield. If Jake Ballard (see below) makes the roster, expect plenty of sets with three tight ends as Hernandez lines up at wide receiver.

In DLF off-season mock drafts, Hernandez is being selected as the third tight end off the board (behind only Gronk and Jimmy Graham) and #30 overall. Though he missed six games due to injury last year, he was sixth among tight ends with 12.5 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. Hernandez was prone to inconsistency in 2012, with three games of eight-plus receptions and three with less than three. His best games came with Gronk on the sidelines, as he accumulated 26 receptions on 43 targets for 247 yards and three touchdowns from weeks 13 through 15.

Only 23 years old and signed through the 2018 season, Hernandez will be in a Patriots uniform for a very long time. In dynasty leagues, he will be an elite option for years. Injuries (most significantly knee and ankle issues) and the presence of Gronk are the only factors that could limit his productivity.

Jake Ballard

Following news that a knee injury would require him to miss the entire 2012 season, the Giants tried to sneak Ballard through waivers to avoid losing a roster spot. The last team that could claim him did, which enraged Tom Coughlin as the Patriots took a parting shot following their Super Bowl loss to the Giants.

Ballard came on strong near the end of 2011, finishing with 38 receptions for 604 yards and four touchdowns before making some key plays in the postseason. He is reportedly on track to return for training camp and compete for a roster spot. With Gronkowski and Hernandez firmly ahead of him on the depth chart, track Ballard’s progress, but there are too many question marks to draft him.

Daniel Fells

Targeted only ten times in 2012 and likely fifth on the depth chart, Fells is unlikely to return to the Patriots and holds no value in fantasy leagues.

Michael Hoomanawanui (RFA)

When Gronkowski missed time at the end of the season due to injury, it was Hoomanawanui that benefited the most in terms of snaps. However, the Patriots changed their scheme so this translated into more blocking and fewer targets for the second tight end on the field. Although he’s expected to retain a roster spot, “Hoo-man” isn’t worth fantasy consideration.

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