Buyin’ Brian

Eric Hardter Posted On March 4, 2013

My primary dynasty league is a “work league” that consists of nine co-workers, past and present, and myself. There’s a slight bias towards pass catchers, as the scoring system is full PPR, and our lineup requirements stipulate that we each must start at least three wide receivers every week. That means that on any given Sunday (well, Thursday through Monday if you want to get technical), thirty-plus wide receivers are attempting to gain their owners copious amounts of imaginary points.

Through drafting, trading and scouring the waiver wire, I thought I had one of the better (and deeper) groups in the league. Depending on matchups and bye weeks, I had the luxury of mixing and matching some combination of Wes Welker, Hakeem Nicks, Marques Colston, Kenny Britt and Pierre Garcon in order to fill the three receiver slots. If things got dicey, I thought I could, at least temporarily, count on ascending sophomore Vincent Brown as the next man up, followed by promising rookie Josh Gordon. My preseason paper tiger of a team was roaring fiercely!

Well, anyone who owns the receivers listed above knows what happened next. Nicks and Brown were injured in the preseason; Brown missed the entire year and Nicks played as if he did, too. Garcon was hurt in the first game of the regular season, and the subsequent nine-game stretch saw him miss six games and total a mere 49 receiving yards in the three in which he did play. Britt never seemed to get over his torn ACL from 2011, and combined with Jake Locker’s uninspired play, he was rendered a mere shell of himself. Gordon occasionally “flashed” like his name was Sam Jones, but his production was too sporadic for him to be considered reliable. My once proud paper tiger was mewing like a neutered house cat!

Due to the depth of our rosters, there wasn’t much on the waiver wire. However, one player immediately caught my eye. Here was a guy who, through the first two games of the season, had accumulated a healthy 20 targets, securing 12 of them for 161 yards – over 80 yards per game. While I was elated I snagged him, I also felt like a fool. After all, Jarrett Behar warned us about this guy in June, and I neglected to act then. Having now learned my lesson, I’m here to continue to spread Jarrett’s gospel and re-educate the dynasty masses. Much like I did, you need to be buying Brian Hartline, and I’m going to detail exactly why.

2012 Statistics

Games	Targets	TPG	Receptions	Catch %	Yards	YPG	YPC	TD’s	PPR Rank
16	128	8.0	74	57.8	1083	67.7	14.6	1	WR27

2012 marked Hartline’s fourth season in the league, as well as his best by far. He was one of only 20 wide receivers to clear 1,000 yards and also recorded top-25 finishes in terms of receptions, targets and yards-per-catch. The biggest blemish to his stat-line is that he caught only one touchdown. Unfortunately, this is no deviation for Hartline, who has never exceeded three touchdowns in a season.

Detractors will point out that nearly a quarter of his production came in a week four outburst when he recorded 12 receptions for 253 yards. While this is true, Hartline still recorded ten games with either four or more receptions, or 50+ yards. He also received 26.4% of his team’s targets, which isn’t significantly less than what the best receiver in the game, Calvin Johnson, received from his quarterback (28.2%). Moreover, he did all this with a rookie under center not named Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III or Russell Wilson. This now begs the question, could his season have looked different with better quarterback play?

Adjusted 2012 Statistics

Ryan Tannehill, the afore-mentioned Miami rookie quarterback, attempted only 484 passes (twentieth most in the league), completing 58.3% of them (#23 amongst qualifying quarterbacks). Despite his less than gaudy numbers, Tannehill showed promise of one day being an above average signal caller. With coach Joe Philbin’s preference for passing the ball, expectations are that both Tannehill’s attempts and completion percentage will rise, likely as soon as next year.

So let’s go out on a limb and say that Tannehill improves to the level of the tenth through fifteenth best NFL quarterback. The average total of pass attempts for the QB10-15 range in 2012 was 540 passes, 1.12 times more than Tannehill’s 484 attempts. With regards to completion percentage, the average for QB10-15 was 62.0%, or 1.06 times that of Tannehill’s accuracy. What happens if we add these multipliers to Hartline’s 2012 numbers?

Games	Targets	TPG	Receptions	Catch %	Yards	YPG	YPC	TD’s	PPR Rank
16	143	8.9	88	61.3	1285	80.3	14.6	1	WR18

Assuming Hartline received the same percentage of Tannehill’s targets, this total now jumps up 1.12 times to 143, or 8.9 per game. With a theoretically improved catch percentage (based on Tannehill’s accuracy being 1.06 times better), Hartline’s adjusted reception/yardage totals improve to 88 and 1,285 respectively (given that the yards-per-catch statistic doesn’t change). Even if he still only scored once, Hartline would have finished the 2012 season as the WR18. That’s not bad, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility as soon as next year, depending on where Hartline chooses to play.

Free Agency

Hartline is set to hit free agency, and though the Dolphins want to re-sign him, it’s no lock to happen. He’s said to be seeking the same type of contract Laurent Robinson received from the Jaguars last year, which equated to roughly $6.5 million per year. Though Miami has money to spend, they also have plenty of needs to meet.

If Hartline signs with a new team, it’s likely that it will be as a WR2. While it’s possible he might not receive the same type of radar-lock he got from Tannehill, he would presumably be facing softer coverage than what he received as Miami’s number-one guy. To me, this represents a “push” in value at worst.

Hartline could also choose to stay in Miami. It’s well known that the Dolphins are looking for a “true” WR1 – someone such as Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings or Dwayne Bowe. Should this come to fruition, I consider this a boon to Hartline’s value, and a best-case scenario. He’s already formed a solid rapport with Tannehill, and would once again theoretically see less defensive pressure. Regardless of where Hartline winds up, his relative value alone makes him too good to pass up.

ADP Data

A quick glance at January’s ADP data (courtesy of Ryan McDowell) reveals nothing about Hartline. Of course, that’s because you have to scroll, and scroll, and scroll some more before you find him. Hartline’s current ADP over all positions currently resides at an astronomical 169.83.

To put that in perspective, Hartline is being mocked, literally and figuratively, as a fourteenth round pick and mid-level WR5 (in twelve-team leagues). He checks in as the #66 WR drafted, behind such luminaries as Rod Streater, Leonard Hankerson, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jon Baldwin, AJ Jenkins and Brandon LaFell. Given this level of value, Hartline could likely be had for a mid-round rookie draft pick.

Conclusion

Though I don’t envision Brian Hartline ever becoming a true fantasy stud, I believe his potential is being too easily dismissed, or ignored altogether. He just played the best ball of his career last season, and is still only 26 years old. He lacks a nose for the end zone, which likely precludes him from joining the upper echelon of receivers, but there’s no reason he can’t function as your WR3, FLEX, matchup play or bye-week replacement. No matter what, given the disproportionate relationship between his upside and cheap price tag, there’s no reason you shouldn’t be buyin’ Brian!

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.