Moving Pieces

Eric Olinger

puzzle_pieces

Free agency is awesome. I love looking at a list of impending free agents and trying to figure out where they’re going to end up. Earlier this week, Member Corner writer Kevin Merlet gave you some best and worst case free agency scenarios. Continuing that thought, I want to take a look at two key fantasy contributors from the last five years whose values appear to be heading in opposite directions.

Michael Turner, RB FA

It was mere hours after the Falcons’ loss to the 49ers that rumors were spreading that Michael Turner had played his last down as a Falcon. Once his cap number went from $5.5 million to $6.9 million after hitting escalators, it was pretty much “when,” not “if” he was going to be cut.

Turner looked gassed last year and has too many miles on the ol’ tires. He averaged just 3.6 yards per carry while rushing for just 803 yards, but he did score ten touchdowns. During his five year tenure in Atlanta, he scored 60 rushing touchdowns (the most over that span by any running back), while rushing for 6,084 yards.

Turner doesn’t really fit the high flying offense Atlanta is building around Matt Ryan and Julio Jones because he offers nothing in the passing game, evident by the fact he has fewer catches (59) in Atlanta than rushing touchdowns (60).

So, what’s next for Turner?

Will he follow in the footsteps of former fantasy studs like Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson and Edgerrin James who fell off the map so fast it was like they were in the witness protection program? Or will he simply move on to a team that can use him as a battering ram or a goal line back? At 31 years old, he can’t expect a bidding war for his services. He might not hear anything until after the draft or well into training camp.

Best Scenario: San Diego

A return to the team that drafted him would benefit Turner the most. The Chargers run game was the most effective in 2011 when Ryan Mathews was paired with another butterball running back, Mike Tolbert. Turner would be a nice upgrade on Jackie Battle and Ronnie Brown as a goal line thumper.

Worst Scenario: *Crickets*

Someone inevitably will give Turner a chance. He’s a good teammate and can still fill a role for a team but there is a chance, albeit a small one, that he doesn’t find a home that gives him a role for dynasty players.

Steven Jackson, RB STL

Once word broke that Jackson could void the final year of his contract and test free agency, the “what ifs?” started. What if he ends up in Green Bay? Cincinnati? Detroit? Atlanta? That picture seemed to come into focus on Friday when Michael Turner was cut, to the point that if he doesn’t end up a Falcon, it would be a major upset.

Jackson has been incredibly consistent over his entire career, rushing for over 1,000 yards every year since 2004, his rookie year when he shared the backfield with Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk. And that is even taking into account the years he missed multiple games due to injury. Coming fresh off his 2012 season that saw him average 4.1 yards per carry on the way to 1,042 yards rushing, four touchdowns and an additional 38 catches for 321 yards, Jackson is now the biggest free agent running back available.

Best Scenario: Atlanta

Make no mistake, Jackson will be a HUGE upgrade on Michael Turner in the Atlanta offense. Over the five years Turner was toting 60 scores across the stripe, Jackson scored just 26 rushing touchdowns. For anyone whohas owned Jackson during his career, imagine doubling his yearly touchdown numbers and tacking that on to his fantasy totals. The Falcons can still use Jacquizz Rodgers to give Jackson breathers and keep him fresh. Playing in this offense, Jackson would see lanes he hasn’t seen since his days with Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Az Hakim. There is reason to be excited, even if it might only be for two years.

Worst Scenario: St. Louis

Returning to St. Louis seems like a long shot unless they throw the bank at him, a la DeAngelo Williams in Carolina. With Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead on the roster, a running back committee would be inevitable. Add in six games a year against the 49ers, Seahawks and Cardinals run defenses and Jackson looks a lot less enticing. If you own S-Jax or plan on owning him, hope he officially voids that contract ASAP.

eric olinger
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