Dynasty Stock Market: AFC West Buy and Sell Candidates
The weekly Dynasty Stock Market features not only price checks, but provides player features, draft projections, trade values or a variety of other relevant topics each week to make sure we’re covering everything our premium content followers are demanding.
With the dynasty off-season beginning, owners must shift their focus from the week-to-week decisions with hopes of winning the upcoming matchup to more of a long term view of the necessary steps to improve their teams. Near the top of each dynasty owners’ off-season “to do” list should be identifying players to buy or sell in the coming months. In the next few editions of the Dynasty Stock Market, division by division, I will share my opinions on players we should be buying or selling. I encourage you to list your own in the comments are below.
Often, when a fantasy buy and sell list is produced, the assumption is those players fall into either the “buy low” or “sell high” categories. I am sure many of the players I mention will fit into one of these two groups, but not all will. Some of the players I will be targeting as “buys” already have a steep price, but it is a price I am willing to pay, based on that player’s expected future value and level or production. The same is true for players on the other end. There are some players I will be selling, even at a low price, in an effort to rid myself of that player before their value completely bottoms out.
Here is a look at some players to buy and sell from the AFC West:
Buys
Brock Osweiler, QB DEN
The Broncos chose quarterback Brock Osweiler in the second round of last year’s NFL Draft. Osweiler was highly thought of coming out of Arizona State, but had many questions as well. Following the off-season signing of Peyton Manning, it was obvious that the rookie would not see the field much in 2012, and that is how it played out, thanks to Manning playing a fully healthy season. Osweiler saw action in five games, throwing only four passes on the season – all of those coming in week seventeen mop up duty. Nothing we saw from Osweiler last year would earn him a spot on this list, but his high draft status, combined with Manning’s age makes Osweiler a cheap off-season target. It is unknown how much longer Manning will attempt to play. He will be 37 years old by the kickoff of the 2013 season and cannot have many seasons left. It has been great to watch Manning play over all these years, but the Broncos and dynasty owners alike should begin to prepare for life after Peyton. Manning owners should make acquiring Osweiler a priority this off-season, while other owners should make a strong attempt as well. In shallow leagues, Osweiler is a player who might be found on the waiver wire.
Ronnie Hillman, RB DEN
The Broncos have another rookie who was rarely used in the 2012 season in running back Ronnie Hillman. Veteran Willis McGahee entered the season as the starter, but was slowed with injuries. At that time, most fans and fantasy owners expected the rookie Hillman to get his shot as a breakout candidate. Instead, Hillman dealt with troubles with pass protection and was bypassed by Knowshon Moreno, who finished the season on a hot streak. At this time, the Denver running back situation for 2013 looks like a three headed monster, but as we dig deeper, Hillman is clearly the most valuable of the three players in dynasty leagues. There have already been rumors that Moreno could be a cap casualty and while McGahee has been solid for the Broncos, he has little time remaining as a starting back in the NFL. Hillman, at only 21 years old, makes a great target for dynasty owners looking to add some running back depth, with starter upside. He is currently being selected as the RB38 in our DLF dynasty mock drafts.
Jamaal Charles, RB KC
Following a season ending injury in 2011, Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles returned at full strength and enjoyed the best season of his career. He posted career highs for carries and yards and ended the season ranked as the RB9 in PPR leagues. The mismanagement of Charles over the past seasons under head coaches Todd Haley and Romeo Crennel has been the cause of much frustration to fantasy owners and Chiefs fans alike. Now though, Kansas City has hired former Eagles front man Andy Reid and expectations for the team are growing. For fantasy owners, high hopes are based in the way Reid used LeSean McCoy for the Eagles, though that was often criticized as well. The end result was McCoy scored a lot of touchdowns and was involved in the passing game, leading to a great deal of fantasy points. The same can be true of Charles as well in 2013. While outdoing the more than 1,500 rushing yards he posted in 2012 will be a feat, it is very possible his touchdowns increase and he should easily improve on the 236 receiving yards he had under Crennel in 2012. While Charles’ dynasty value is high coming off an impressive season, he is still only being valued as the RB7 in dynasty startup drafts. If you have a back in the second tier who comes with some question marks, it could be worth it to add something to a player like Matt Forte or Stevan Ridley in order to acquire Charles.
Jon Baldwin, WR KC
Through his first two seasons in the league, former first round pick wide receiver Jon Baldwin has been a disappointment for the wide receiver needy Kansas City Chiefs. In his two seasons, Baldwin has only managed 41 catches, 579 yards and two scores. Baldwin infamously missed the beginning of his rookie season after a training camp skirmish with teammate Thomas Jones. Once he did return, his quarterback for much of the season was Tyler Palko, so the passing game struggled all around. Entering 2012, many dynasty owners expected a breakout season. After all, Dwayne Bowe was the team’s only real weapon in the passing game and it was assumed Baldwin would have plenty of targets coming his way. Instead, Baldwin averaged only three targets per game and ranked fifth on the team. With the possible departure of Bowe, we can again assume the Baldwin should get his chance to shine. The difference this off-season is that his current value is aligned more to his production on the field, rather than hype or expectations. After back-to-back subpar seasons, Baldwin’s value has bottomed out. He can be had is startup dynasty drafts in the twelfth round. I have seen few trades involving Baldwin, but expect he would demand no more than a late second round pick in the upcoming rookie draft. He’s the perfect type of player to get thrown into a larger deal.
Denarius Moore, WR OAK
Raiders wide receiver Denarius Moore entered his rookie season with little fanfare and few expectations. After all, he was well down the depth chart. He wasted no time placing himself in the spotlight, though. In week two of the 2011 season, Moore exploded for 146 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Bills. Although that would end up being the best game of his rookie season, Moore was consistent and most importantly, healthy, for the Raiders. His off-season dynasty value grew quickly and he began his sophomore campaign the same way he ended last season. His value was at an all-time high around mid-season, but as the Raiders struggled, so too did Moore. In the final seven games of the season, Moore only had 176 receiving yards, an average of 25 yards per game. Based on his below average play down the stretch, Moore’s value too has dropped entering the off-season. Moore’s ADP (average draft position) based on our January mocks was around 74, meaning he would still cost owners an early seventh round pick, in most cases. In just one month, our February data shows Moore with an ADP of 102, meaning he is now being drafted in the middle of the ninth round. While his end of season play was disappointing, Moore’s fall from month to month is shocking to me. Nonetheless, it is something that I would look to take advantage of, pursuing trades for Moore as well as targeting him in startup drafts.
Rod Streater, WR OAK
Another player who burst onto the scene seemingly out of nowhere was wide receiver Rod Streater. Streater was undrafted last season out of Temple and while fellow rookie Juron Criner was expected to see a lot of action with the starters, it was Streater that stole the show in the preseason. So often, preseason breakout performances do not carry over into the regular season, but this was not the case for Streater. He finished the season with 39 grabs for 584 yards and three touchdowns. While these numbers are somewhat modest, the fact that Streater was able to go from being an undrafted free agent to a starting wide receiver over such a short span is very encouraging for dynasty owners. There are rumors that another Raiders wide receiver, Darrius Heyward-Bey, will be released, opening the door for even more time for Streater. He is currently being valued as a late round depth player, but he has the potential to greatly improve in year two.
Ryan Mathews, RB SD
One of the most disappointing players in the minds of dynasty owners over the past two seasons is Chargers running back Ryan Mathews. He entered the 2011 season much hyped, based on his youth and high draft status. As a rookie, he had rushed for nearly 700 yards and seven scores, so owners thought those numbers could only go up in year two. While he did rush for over 1,000 yards, his touchdowns actually decreased to six, thanks in large part to goal line vulture Mike Tolbert. A year ago, Tolbert chose to sign with the Carolina Panthers and dynasty owners were really giddy to see Mathews with the role of every down back and hopefully, more opportunities for touchdowns. Instead, Mathews often gave way to less talented backs like Jackie Battle and Ronnie Brown. He finished the season with just over 700 rushing yards and one lone score. A year ago, Mathews was a top five dynasty startup pick, now he is lasting until the fourth round. With a new coaching staff in town, now might be the perfect time to buy Mathews cheaply and hope he can stay healthy.
Ladarius Green, TE SD
Across the league, there are so many talented young tight ends currently playing a backup role to a veteran starter. One great example of these is Chargers Ladarius Green. Although he was only drafted in the fourth round a season ago, dynasty owners seemed to sense Green could be the eventual replacement for starter Antonio Gates. Green was routinely chosen in the second round of dynasty rookie drafts, though his numbers might have disappointed some of those investing such a high pick. Green only had four receptions on the season for 56 yards, as Gates managed to stay relatively healthy. Gates now enters his eleventh season and will be 33 years old by the kickoff of week one. We have seen other tight ends, namely Tony Gonzalez, play at a high level well into their thirties, but Gates has already lost a step. Expect Green to be phased into the passing game more this season. He’s likely on the waiver wire in many leagues, and is well worth stashing.
Sells
Peyton Manning, QB DEN
One of the greatest stories of the 2012 season was the comeback of Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning. Following a Hall of Fame career for the Indianapolis Colts, the two sides were ready to part ways and Manning chose Denver, pushing Tim Tebow out of town at the same time. The move was successful for both Manning and the Broncos as the team won their second consecutive division title and Manning posted the second highest passing yardage total and second most touchdowns of his fourteen year career – those numbers were good enough to make him QB4 on the season, to the surprise of many dynasty owners who had written him off following his neck surgery the year before. While Manning is (and has been) great for years and years, I will make the same case for him that I did for Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. Manning will soon be 37 years old and can’t have much left. Many owners still value Manning as a top ten, or even a top five dynasty option despite his age. Like Brady, I would look to acquire a younger option such as Russell Wilson or Colin Kaepernick in exchange for Manning.
Danario Alexander, WR SD
After two promising, yet injury filled seasons for the St. Louis Rams, wide receiver Danario Alexander enjoyed the best season of his career with the San Diego Chargers. Alexander caught 37 passes for over 650 yards and scored seven touchdowns in only ten games. For a five week stretch, beginning with week ten, Alexander was the WR4 in PPR leagues, behind only Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant and Andre Johnson. Based on his incredible run over the second half of the season, Alexander’s dynasty value went through the roof. After being released by the Rams and garnering little interest until the Chargers signed him before week eight, Alexander was on the waiver wire of nearly every fantasy league in existence. Upon signing, recognizing the Chargers were is desperate need of some help at the wide receiver position, owners began to snag Alexander from the wire. After a quiet week eight game, Alexander caught three passes for 61 yards in week nine and it only got better from there. Now, Alexander is being drafted as the WR35, in the same range as promising players such as Kendall Wright, Cecil Shorts and TY Hilton. While Alexander’s comeback story is impressive and I am rooting for him to maintain his health, it is not something I am willing to assume will happen. Alexander has had multiple injuries, most dealing with his knees. If I was able to trade Alexander and his injury history for one of the young up and coming wide receivers I mentioned, I would not be able to pass up that chance.
Check back next week for another installment of the Dynasty Stock Market.
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