Dynasty Capsule: Buffalo Bills
As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re also going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.
We continue our path through the NFL with the Buffalo Bills.
Quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Just like 2011, Fitzpatrick was off to a great start early in the 2012 season. Through the first four games, he averaged three touchdowns per game against the Jets, Chiefs, Browns and Patriots – then he started facing tough defenses. In three of his next four games (against the 49ers, Cardinals, and Texans), he didn’t throw a single touchdown pass and averaged just 173 passing yards. The second half of the season didn’t get any better, as six of his final eight games saw either one or zero total touchdowns and also featured three games with under 200 yards passing.
Overall, the eight year veteran was once again less than inspiring, completing just over 60% of his passes for 3,400 yards and a 24:16 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Take out the hot start, and these low-end QB2 numbers made him waiver wire material.
With speculation that Buffalo will look to draft a quarterback if they see a good value, Fitzpatrick may not have much time left at the helm. If you end up with him on your roster, try to trade him after a couple good games early. It won’t last.
Tarvaris Jackson
The Bills re-signed Jackson this off-season to a one year deal worth $1.75 million, with just $500,000 of that guaranteed. While the Bills claim there will be an open competition at quarterback, it’s very difficult to see Jackson winning that job. The Bills were very vocal all season about wanting to address the quarterback position and it’s quite possible they’re preparing for a worst case scenario by securing Jackson before free agency starts. Buffalo will be a very intriguing team to watch during free agency and the draft in regards to the quarterback position. With a career completion percentage of less than 60% and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 38:35, Jackson is the epitome of mediocre in both reality and fantasy. Even if he did somehow become the Bills starter, it’s hard to see him ever being active on a decent fantasy roster.
Brad Smith
Currently the only other quarterback (more or less) under contract, Smith won’t exactly be pushing Fitzpatrick for a starting role anytime soon. As a wideout, 14 catches for 152 yards and two touchdowns aren’t good in any fantasy format, either.
Expect Buffalo to acquire their backup quarterback(s) through the draft, free agency, or both. It won’t be Smith.
Tyler Thigpen (UFA)
Throwing a total of five passes all season, Thigpen is entering free agency. Even if he’s re-signed and is the #2 passer in Buffalo, there isn’t any value barring an injury. It’s been a long time since his days of waiver wire darling in fantasy leagues.
Running backs
CJ Spiller
One of the most hyped players of the young off-season (which for our purposes began in December), Spiller will still have to split carries with Fred Jackson. With both of their injury histories, that won’t be a bad thing. Spiller is so electric he doesn’t need a lot of carries to put up big numbers, and sharing the workload should help him stay healthy.
Averaging six yards per carry over the course of the season, Spiller rushed for over 100 yards on 17 or fewer carries four times in 2012. Having averaged 5.2 yards per carry in 2011, this was no aberration. Therefore, if Spiller gets 15 yards a carry over a full seaso,n we’re looking at another 1,400+ yards on the ground. Add in a handful of receptions with the yards that come with them, and the hype is validated.
In DLF’s January mock draft ADP, Spiller came in eighth among running backs and #15 overall, making him an early second round pick in 12-team leagues. However, he was drafted as early as #8 overall in those mocks, so you may see him jumping into the first round.
Fred Jackson
Age (32 this month) and injuries are catching up to Jackson. After averaging 5.5 yards per carry in 2011, the average in 2012 declined to 3.8 (437 yards on 115 carries). Take out a nine-carry, 71-yard performance and the season average dropped to just 3.4 yards per tote. Despite all the talk about missing time due to injury, even when he was on the field there was a decline in performance. Couple these factors with the emergence of a young star in the backfield and Jackson’s dynasty value is declining rapidly.
All is not necessarily lost, however. With Buffalo’s desire to spare Spiller of a full workload Jackson will still get carries, especially near the goal line. In his limited playing time, Jackson also caught 34 passes for 217 yards, making him a decent flex play in PPR leagues.
There are many factors working against him, but if his stock drops too far, he may still be a decent value for your bench.
Tashard Choice (UFA)
On 47 carries (almost half of which came in week three), Choice averaged a decent 4.1 yards per carry. Five seasons in the NFL have included three different stops for the veteran, and as a free agent there is a good chance he finds a new temporary home.
While he has shown flashes, there is little chance he becomes dynasty relevant.
Wide Receivers
Stevie Johnson
Though some of his off-field actions may not reflect it, Johnson has been a model of consistency on the field. For three straight seasons, he has at least 75 catches, 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. With a new wide receiver coach infatuated with Johnson’s playmaking skills and determined to take him to the next level, opportunity won’t be a problem.
Johnson was taken at #29 among wide receivers in DLF’s January mock draft ADP and was the #65 player taken overall – that means he’s being drafted as a mid-WR3. Consistently putting up WR2 numbers, the sixth round of 12-team startup drafts represents solid value. He’ll be 27 to start the 2013 season, so he has more than a few years left. An upgrade at the quarterback position will only help his dynasty outlook.
TJ Graham
Used minimally through week 13, Graham’s targets jumped from less than three per game to 6.5 per game from weeks 14-17. The speedy receiver had two 40+ yard receptions in December, including one for 51 yards against the Jaguars. Unfortunately, he didn’t do much else with the newly found attention.
Graham’s primary skill does not match up well with his current quarterback, and even if there’s a change it remains to be seen whether he can be an effective receiver in the NFL. Keep an eye on him, but there are better sleepers for 2013.
Marcus Easley
Though he has been a popular sleeper pick in the past two preseasons, Easley has yet to do anything concrete in the NFL. He needs to stay healthy to even merit a look and that’s been a difficult task for him during his career.
Kevin Elliott
Picked up from Jacksonville as insurance at the end of the season, Elliott dressed for week 17 but did not catch any passes. If Buffalo’s receiving corps is healthy to start the season, he may not make the roster.
David Nelson (RFA)
With a 2012 season cut short due to a torn ACL, Nelson has to prove his readiness and worth to a new coaching staff. He’s tall and has good hands, but isn’t a game changer. With a few catches a game, he could be a desperation play, but there isn’t much upside here.
Donald Jones (UFA)
Jones was non-tendered and will be a free agent. Depending on where he lands, he could have some value in deeper leagues.
Tight Ends
Scott Chandler
You know what you’re going to get from Chandler – 3-4 receptions and about 45 yards receiving per game, with a touchdown every other game. Depending on how many TEs are roster-worthy in your league, he is likely in the pool of spot starters who are dropped after bye weeks are done.
Chandler just had ACL surgery in January, three weeks after the injury landed him on IR. Between the injury, salary and a new coaching staff, there is a chance he becomes a salary cap casualty.
Lee Smith
If Chandler departs, Smith may assume a similar role in the offense. At this point, he’s not worth a roster spot.
You can follow me on Twitter @jlfoster10
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