Dynasty Capsule: San Francisco 49ers
As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re also going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.
We continue our journey through the NFL with the NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers.
Quarterbacks
Colin Kaepernick
When Alex Smith went down in week ten with a concussion against St. Louis, we finally got a glimpse of the 49ers quarterback of the future. We didn’t know, however, the future started right then. As odd as that game was, it ended in a tie. The following Monday night featured Kaepernick’s coming out party on a national stage against the Chicago Bears. Colin led the Niners to a dismantling of the Bears, 32-7. That led to “lingering concussion symptoms” for Alex Smith and another start for Kaepernick.
Once Smith was medically cleared, Harbaugh decided to stick with the inked up marvel, a ballsy decision for a team with arguably the most talented roster in all of football and one with legitimate Super Bowl hopes. Kaepernick did not disappoint, he added a spark to the entire offense and from week 10 on he threw for 1,725 yards, ten touchdowns and three interceptions. He also added 304 yards rushing and three more touchdowns – not bad for a guy that was being brought in as a red zone specialist earlier in the year.
From the time he took over as the starter to the end of the season, Kaepernick was a top ten fantasy option at quarterback, but what he did in the playoffs and the Super Bowl is what has dynasty players licking their chops. It was reported that he was taking one week off after the Super Bowl loss and then gathering teammates in Atlanta to start training immediately. I love that.
With the read-option offense taking the NFL by storm and Kaepernick’s size, speed and intelligence, he is being drafted as the QB9 in dynasty start-ups according to Ryan McDowell’s Dynasty Mock Series. It will be interesting to see if that rises after February’s data is collected. I expect him to climb a couple more spots.
If I have him on my team, I would want a King’s ransom. If I don’t have a sure fire QB1 stud for the next 5-6 years, I would bug the person who has him until he gave in and traded him to me.
Alex Smith
The Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL, Alex Smith just can’t get any respect. I mean, what does a guy have to do? After leading his team to the NFC title game, his coach “allegedly” tried signing Peyton Manning, but when that failed, they kissed and made up with a very team friendly two-year contract that can be voided after one.
After leading the Niners to a 6-2 record coming out of their week nine bye, Smith’s season came to an abrupt end in St. Louis when he suffered that concussion. Smith was having a very good year, completing over 70% of his passes for 1,737 yards, 13 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Smith was the prototypical “game manager” quarterback who wouldn’t necessarily win or lose a game for you, but he realistically had no shot holding off the electric second year quarterback in waiting.
What happens to Smith now is anybody’s guess. The Niners have two very feasible options. One, they can trade Smith to one of the quarterback needy teams for draft picks or players. Two, they can very easily keep him on the roster to finish out the final year of his contract, let him walk next year, then receive a compensatory pick the following year. For a team looking to return to the Super Bowl next year, the second scenario would make a lot of sense since they would have less than $11 million dollars committed to the entire quarterback position thanks to the CBA not allowing Kaepernick to restructure until after next season.
If Alex Smith is traded, a team like Kansas City makes the most sense if he is looking for a starting job. He would basically take over the same role he had in San Francisco, hand the ball off to Jamaal Charles and make just enough throws to keep defenses honest. It will be interesting because suitors weren’t exactly lining up when he was a free agent last year. Only the Dolphins and 49ers were interested and that was only after they struck out on their first choices.
Scott Tolzien
The wild card in the Smith saga (how Coach Harbaugh feels about Scott Tolzien) will play a huge factor in whether the Niners trade or keep Alex Smith. They liked him enough to keep him over Harbaugh favorite Josh Johnson. If he can prove throughout the off-season workouts that he can be an effective spot starter, the Niners will feel much safer bringing an end to Alex Smith’s tenure in San Francisco.
Running backs
Frank Gore
Entering the 2012 season at age 29, many expected Frank Gore to just be “just a guy” in a crowded running back by committee attack. Frank “the Tank” responded by rushing for 1,212 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 28 receptions for 234 yards and another touchdown, his best fantasy season since 2009. Gore proved to be one of the greatest values in all of fantasy football last year, he was drafted as a low RB2 / high RB3 and produced at a RB1 level.
Obviously age is a concern, but Gore takes great care of his self and the 49ers very smartly give him series off throughout the game to keep him fresh. With youngsters Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James as part of the stable, Gore will have plenty of time to rest, but will remain to lead dog for at least one more season, especially with Hunter recovering from an Achilles injury.
Kendall Hunter
In his sophomore season, Hunter was a great running mate and complement to workhorse Frank Gore. Often times it was difficult to tell the difference between the two. Hunter was averaging a very robust 5.1 yards per carry through 12 games when his season came to an abrupt end by tearing his Achilles tendon.
Even though reports are positive stating he is “ahead of schedule in his recovery,” as we’ve seen in the past the worst thing a player can do is rush back from an Achilles injury, see Jon Beason, Demaryius Thomas. Nowadays, the Achilles is the new ACL. With these athletes getting bigger, stronger, faster, the amount of force and torque being put on their knees and ankles is incredible. Luckily, Hunter is young and currently a complimentary piece in an organization smart enough to see the big picture. Barring a setback, Hunter is still the heir apparent to the San Francisco running game, even if that means starting the 2013 season on the PUP list.
LaMichael James
The lightning to the dynamic duo of thunder, James’ rookie campaign was a tad disappointing. Viewed as a luxury pick in last April’s draft, James did not see a snap until Hunter went down with his Achilles injury, but amassed 27 carries for 125 yards over the last four weeks as a change of pace back.
As the Niners move forward with Kaepernick at the helm, they will find ways to incorporate James into the game plan with a “super speed” package. That’s a lot of speed to try to defend and Harbaugh and Co. will find ways to exploit it, even if that means using it as a decoy to free up the pass catchers.
Unfortunately for fantasy purposes, James won’t be worth much in 2013 and I wonder if he’ll ever have any real consistent fantasy appeal on a weekly basis.
Anthony Dixon
Dixon wasn’t even a sure thing to make the 2012 opening day roster, but he did and was buried on the depth chart. Dixon was used as a goal line plow on a couple of occasions, but he has no fantasy value.
Wide Receivers
Michael Crabtree
Steve Wyremski might not be the “I told you so” type, but I’ll say it for him; he told you so!
People will credit Colin Kaepernick for setting Michael Crabtree free, but that wasn’t necessarily the case. Crabtree was putting together a really solid PPR season with Alex Smith at the helm. He was on pace 78 catches for 880 yards and six touchdowns, nearly identical to his 2011 numbers. When you project Crabtree’s numbers out with Kaepernick at the helm you get 92 catches for 1,330 yards and 12 touchdowns. That’s the difference between “really solid” and “so that’s what he can do!”
Crabtree does his best work when getting him the ball in space quickly and making people miss. Obviously, Kaepernick has legit chemistry with Crabtree and this pair should do serious damage for years to come. In PPR leagues, Crabtree is a WR1 and 2013 should bring new career highs across the board for the finally healthy and mature wide receiver.
A.J. Jenkins
Zero catches, zero yards, one target on 37 snaps.
That was A.J. Jenkins’ rookie season after being drafted in the first round last April. With a big hole at WR2, Jenkins obviously has a big opportunity in front of him and is attacking it by joining teammates in Atlanta for off-season training immediately.
With basically no information to go on other than draft status and opportunity, predicting Jenkins’ 2013 season is nearly impossible. Could he have a Cecil Shorts type of breakout? It’s possible. Could he be “just another guy?” That’s possible, too. In February, I will guess he’s somewhere in the middle, somewhere around 40 catches 750 yards, and three to four touchdowns.
Mario Manningham
After signing as a free agent in 2012, Manningham was a fantasy non-factor in San Francisco. He never caught more than five balls in a game or broke 75 yards in any contest. Then, bad got worse when he tore his ACL in week 16.
Practically guaranteed to start 2013 on the PUP list, Manningham could be cut loose from the Niners squad. It will be interesting to see what the Niners do in free agency at the wide receiver spot, that will tell us a lot in regards to how they feel about him.
Regardless of how they feel, you shouldn’t have any fantasy expectations for him moving forward.
Kyle Williams
Poor Kyle Williams, his season just can’t end on anything but heartache. After costing the 49ers the 2012 NFC Championship game with two very costly fumbles, this past season ended with a torn ACL in week 12 against the Saints. As another candidate to start 2013 on the PUP list, Williams really only has any fantasy value in very deep leagues that reward points for return yards.
Randy Moss / Ted Ginn
Both players are currently free agents and neither is expected back with the team. With Randy playing the “good soldier” all season long, mouthy Randy popped up during Super Bowl week and stated he thought he was misused in San Francisco and will be looking for more opportunity in 2013. Good luck.
With injuries to Kyle Williams and Mario Manningham, Ginn has a fighter’s chance of returning if met with a soft market. However, he is nothing more than a kick returner though and does not carry any fantasy value.
Tight End
Vernon Davis
Vernon Davis started the 2012 season strong, scoring four touchdowns in the first three weeks of the season. In week five he hauled in five passes for 106 yards, leading people to believe that the Davis we had seen in the prior year’s playoffs was here to stay… that was not the case. He went on a five week hiatus that included two weeks where he failed to record a catch and never exceeded 37 yards in a game. In Kaepernick’s first start against the Bears, Davis was a Cover-2 beater by hauling in six catches for 83 yards and his first score since week three. Unfortunately, that was the last good thing we saw out of Davis for the season.
Davis is in fantasy purgatory, you can’t cut him because of what he CAN do and you can’t get fair market value for him because he stunk the joint up this year. I think it’s time we re-assess Davis’ value in dynasty leagues – with so many options at the tight end position, you can’t afford to spend a high draft pick on someone that won’t produce up to expectations.
Delanie Walker
Walker is a much better NFL player than fantasy footballer. He does more for Frank Gore owners than his own by being one of the best run blocking tight ends in the entire league. He’s a bit of a throwback to the tight ends of yester year, he can catch the football but is more of a plodder than a burner. Depending on what happens with Dustin Keller in New York and Jared Cook in Tennessee, Walker could find himself in a very profitable scenario. A team like Cleveland or Atlanta could show interest and could flirt with low TE2 numbers on either team.
Garrett Celek
A 6’5” 250 pound rookie out of Michigan State, Celek didn’t see the field a ton in 2012 but that could change quickly if Walker moves on in free agency. Built for the run game, Celek will fill Walker’s role as a “better NFL player than fantasy footballer.”
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