IDP Breakouts, Sleepers, & Stashes: NFC East
Like the offensive side of the ball, it is equally important to identify potential value plays in IDP leagues. Last year, we broke this article down by conference and provided one player per team, but this year we’ll break it down by divisions and analyze multiple players per team. The discussion will focus on players to watch, target, and/or stash for each NFL team. Some of the listed players will only be immediately relevant for deeper leagues, while others are targets for all types of leagues.
Similar to last year, the discussion below will center around three types of players:
Breakout: Players primed for a breakout season who are currently undervalued in dynasty leagues. Simply put, they demand more attention than they are receiving. They represent players who are on the cusp of becoming dominant weekly options at their respective positions.
Sleeper: These players will vary in their level of sleeper status. Some will be long-term sleepers who may take a year or two to develop, while others are players who are older and presented with new roles that result in increased fantasy value that is currently downplayed by the masses.
Stash: Players who are not talked about much, but deserve to be placed at the end of benches due their talent or opportunity. Many of these guys will take a few years to emerge and become household fantasy names. These are targets for the deeper IDP leagues.
New York Giants
Jacquian Williams, WLB/SLB (Sleeper)
Williams was included in several of our in-season weekly IDP watch articles given his pass coverage ability, which makes him a prime candidate to play an every down linebacker role at some point in his career. He was once compared to Giants great Jesse Armstead and continues to be productive when on the field. In particular, he was extremely active in a limited role as a cover linebacker over the past two seasons. Also notable from the end of the 2012 season is that Williams started week 16 and 17 playing 42% and 72% of snaps in those games, respectively, finishing with seven total tackles in aggregate. With the recent departure of Michael Boley, Williams is expected to see increased snaps and potentially start in 2013 even if the Giants bring in another linebacker via free agency or the draft. With the first shot at the starting spot on the weakside, Williams will be a nice sleeper target in 2013 given his every down potential.
Spencer Paysinger, WLB (Stash)
While I’d expect Williams to take Boley’s starting spot, Paysigner will also get a shot to compete for the job, so he’s worth a watch in deeper leagues. In extremely deep leagues where Williams is already rostered, Paysinger may be worth an add. He’s a long shot, but apparently Michael Boley had some positive things to say about the young linebacker and Paysinger does make his presence felt when he gets the snaps. In addition, during the 2012 offseason, Chase Blackburn noted that Paysigner was the most improved linebacker of the young group. If the Giants add linebacker depth and talent in free agency or the draft, that’ll be a big knock on Paysigner, but at this point he should be monitored.
Mark Herzlich, MLB (Stash)
With Boley gone, the weakside linebacker spot is open. The same will be the case in the middle with Chase Blackburn scheduled to be a free agent. Herzlich started for Blackburn in week 16 and played adequately posting six tackles and an assist. He’ll be in the mix for the starting spot in 2013 given his college success and limited success when seeing meaningful snaps, as well as his Boston College connection to Coach Coughlin. I’d expect an addition at middle linebacker from the draft or free agency over the course of the off-season, but at this point, Herzlich should be stashed should he get the initial opportunity.
Marvin Austin, DT (Stash)
With Chris Canty recently cut, the Giants have a hole at defensive tackle next to Linval Joseph. Austin, a former second round pick, will get a shot to compete for the job and should challenge Shaun Rogers adequately. The Giants appear to be shedding some age and salary on their defense, which should work in Austin’s favor. He has tremendous talent to go along with impressive power and explosiveness, but continues to suffer from injuries after being declared ineligible in his final year at UNC. This will surely be Austin’s last chance with the Giants, so keep an eye on the young, talented tackle. In deeper defensive tackle required leagues he’s a stash, while in shallower defensive tackle leagues he’s a watch.
Dallas Cowboys
Bruce Carter, WLB/MLB (Breakout)
Many listed Carter as a breakout candidate in 2012 and that started to happen. However, a season ending injury curtailed that trajectory. With the move to a Tampa-2 defense in 2013, Carter will either play the weakside or the middle and will be put in prime situations to make plays. He’s extremely talented and will play an every down role again in 2013, just as he did in 2012. Expect significant production from Carter in 2013 and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him finish in the top 5 linebackers, especially if he plays the weakside spot. He’s rostered in most formats, but he is a buy given the injury and the move to a Tampa-2 defense.
Matt Johnson, FS/SS (Stash) – With the transition to a Tampa-2 4-3 base defense, many are saying that the Cowboys need to turn over their safety position. That may be the case, but Johnson is a young player that may get a shoot to succeed in this scheme. Johnson was drafted in the fourth round of the 2012 NFL draft. He’s big hitter and is known to be a playmaker that plays with a linebacker mentality – remind you of someone else in a Monte Kiffin defense? I’m not saying he’ll be John  Lynch, but he has some similar attributes. He’s worth a stash in deeper leagues until the Cowboys’ safety position plans take form.
Philadelphia Eagles
Mychal Kendricks, ILB (Breakout)
Much like Bruce Carter above, Kendricks will be switching schemes and positions in 2013. Kendricks played on both the strongside and weakside (mostly strongside) in 2012 and will likely slide into the middle of the Eagles’ new 3-4 base defense. Some are skeptical of Kendricks ability to succeed as an inside linebacker given that he’s undersized, but he does have experience playing the inside in college. During his senior year at Cal, he played the inside spot in their 3-4 defense and finished with 68 solo tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss and three sacks. The NFL is a different ball game, so size is a justifiable concern. With his athletic ability, speed and natural instincts, Kendricks should succeed regardless of his size.
Casey Matthews, ILB (Stash)
Once a popular rookie pick out of Oregon, Matthews may see his fantasy stock rejuvenated with Chip Kelly coming to Philly. Matthews played in Kelly’s 3-4 defense at Oregon and may get a shot at one of the two inside spots. With speculation that DeMeco Ryans may be cut, things would seem to be set up for Matthews’ and his value would spike. He was horrible when given a shot in his rookie season and looked lost and out of his league, but he is worth a speculative stash in very deep leagues should he be given another shot in a scheme he’s more familiar with.
Washington Redskins
Perry Riley, ILB (Breakout)
Entering the final year of his contract, Riley is coming off his second solid season after serving as a capable LB2 for fantasy purposes in most formats over the past two years. Many expected a big time breakout in 2012 for Riley, but his fantasy production was capped by an increase in assists. This past year, he was credited with 55 assists, which ranked sixth among defense players. Interestingly enough, fellow Redskins’ inside linebacker London Fletcher ranked first – that suggests that the Washington home scorers were “assist-crazy.” That’s clear when you look at Riley’s 2012 stat sheet. He was credited in multiple games with seven, eight, or nine assists while playing at home. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing as it suggests that under normal circumstances, Riley may have had significantly more tackles. It also shows he’s consistently around the ball. Based on that, he’s currently underrated and primed for a fantasy breakout in 2013 with the potential and ability to be a LB1. At the age of 24, he has also is a solid candidate to be a reliable linebacker and IDP asset for several years.
Keenan Robinson, ILB (Stash)
Robinson was drafted in 2012 as a potential replacement for London Fletcher. Fletcher still hasn’t said whether he’ll play in 2013 or not, but regardless, as the years go by, it becomes more likely he hangs it up. Even if Fletcher plays again in 2013, Robinson is set to see increased time. Couple those increased snaps with the fact that Riley (as noted above) will be a free agent after the 2013 season and you have a player who will get an opportunity to start in the middle for the Redskins within the next year or two.
