Dynasty Stock Market: AFC South Off-Season Buy and Sell Candidates
The weekly Dynasty Stock Market features not only price checks, but provides player features, draft projections, trade values or a variety of other relevant topics each week to make sure we’re covering everything our premium content followers are demanding.
With the dynasty off-season beginning, owners must shift their focus from the week-to-week decisions with hopes of winning the upcoming matchup to more of a long term view of the necessary steps to improve their teams. Near the top of each dynasty owners’ off-season “to do” list should be identifying players to buy or sell in the coming months. In the next few editions of the Dynasty Stock Market, division by division, I will share my opinions on players we should be buying or selling. I encourage you to list your own in the comments are below.
Often, when a fantasy buy and sell list is produced, the assumption is those players fall into either the “buy low” or “sell high” categories. I am sure many of the players I mention will fit into one of these two groups, but not all will. Some of the players I will be targeting as “buys” already have a steep price, but it is a price I am willing to pay, based on that player’s expected future value and level or production. The same is true for players on the other end. There are some players I will be selling, even at a low price, in an effort to rid myself of that player before their value completely bottoms out.
Here is a look at some players to buy and sell from the AFC South:
Buys
Ben Tate, RB HOU
In 2011, Texans running back Ben Tate had an outstanding season even though he was in the backup role behind fantasy stud Arian Foster. Tate rushed for nearly 1,000 yards, adding four touchdowns. As often happens with young running backs, Tate was greatly overvalued and overdrafted last off-season. Now, after a more modest season in which Tate rushed for only 279 yards, his value is back where it should have been all along. In startup drafts, Tate is being drafted as the RB28 in the seventh round – that may seem costly for some. After all, if you choose Foster in the first round, you might feel pressured to handcuff him with Tate just a few rounds later. The good news for dynasty owners is his trade value in established leagues seems to be much less, provided he is not rostered by the Foster owner. I’ll cover this later, but with Foster racking up the carries, it would not be surprising to see a repeat of 2011 with Tate earning more and more carries and producing for the Texans run heavy offense.
Andrew Luck, QB IND
The Colts clearly hit a home run when they made quarterback Andrew Luck the top overall pick just a year ago. Luck stepped in for future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and the Colts were right back in their place as a playoff contender as Luck threw for over 4,300 yards and 23 touchdowns. His interceptions were a concern, as he gave the ball away eighteen times. Luck clearly has areas to improve, but he is already being considered among the top fantasy quarterbacks in the game. Because of that, his price will not be cheap. According to our January ADP data, he was the QB3 and due to the Robert Griffin III injury, he will likely move up even further. Even with the high cost, Luck is worth the price. The Colts have already provided him with some solid weapons on offense, as you will see below, and he should have another ten years or more of play as a top quarterback. Imagine acquiring Manning or Tom Brady a decade ago. Luck could be just that for your dynasty team.
TY Hilton, WR IND
Rookie wide receiver TY Hilton was chosen by the Colts in the third round and made a quick impact for the team. Although he was somewhat of a high pick for the Colts, he garnered little interest among dynasty owners. He quickly became known for his speed and big play ability, and ended the season with fifty receptions and 861 receiving yards, gaining over seventeen yards per catch. Hilton had five games over 100 receiving yards and scored seven touchdowns on the season. Dynasty owners can envision years and years of Luck-to-Hilton connections, which only help to boost his value. Although he already has one season with a top twenty-five finish among wide receivers, he is only being drafted as WR31 currently.
LaVon Brazill, WR IND
The other wide receiver chosen by the Colts in the 2012 draft was late rounder LaVon Brazill. While Brazill did not play a large role for the Colts this year, there is potential for his playing time and statistics to grow, possibly as soon as next season. With a rookie quarterback leading the team and many other rookies playing significant roles, it was important for veteran wide receivers like Reggie Wayne and Donnie Avery to be impact players for Indianapolis. Now, Avery is a free agent and Wayne is another year older. Although Brazill only caught eleven passes for 186 yards, if Avery moves on, Brazill could get a shot. He’s likely on the waiver wire in many leagues, so his value is obviously low right now.
Dwayne Allen/Coby Fleener, TE IND
The pair of rookie tight ends for Indianapolis also played a big role for the much improved Colts. Coby Fleener was drafted in the second round, followed up by Dwayne Allen in the third round. While everyone knew the Colts would be taking Luck first overall, draftniks and dynasty owners were quick to the conclusion that they would choose to pair up the college teammates by filling the tight end role with Fleener. Before he’d played a snap, Fleener was being drafted as a top twelve tight end. Overall, his season was a disappointment. He dealt with injuries and his first game as a professional was his best, as he gained 82 yards on six receptions – both would be season highs for Fleener. Allen, on the other hand, was a very consistent option for the Colts. He totaled 521 yards on 45 receptions, scoring three touchdowns and surprising many dynasty owners with his role for the Colts. While it is difficult to predict how the snap count could play out for the two young tight ends, we have seen other situations where multiple tight ends have enjoyed fantasy success. Unlike the off-season prior to their rookie year, Allen now has more value than Fleener, but both are being drafted in the later rounds of startup drafts. One strategy I have tried with some dynasty mock drafts is to take both Colts rookies with later picks in the thirteenth round and beyond.
Austin Collie, WR FA
Another player likely found on your waiver wire is wide receiver Austin Collie. He missed nearly the entire 2012 season with a ruptured patella tendon and likely will not be back with the Colts. Collie is a free agent and with the Colts loading up on young wide receivers, it is doubtful that there is a role for him. Despite his history of multiple concussions, there has already been some speculation of a reunion between Collie and his former quarterback Peyton Manning in Denver. Another former Colt, Brandon Stokley, manned the slot receiver position for the Broncos this year and saw a relative amount of success. If Collie can prove he is healthy, he could add another strong option to an already loaded pass attack in Denver. With Collie left on many waiver wires, he is worth rostering until free agency kicks off and we begin to see some of the moves teams make.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB JAX
The starting running back of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Maurice Jones-Drew, missed much of the 2012 season with a foot injury. Although he missed ten games, he still led the team in rushing on the season with 414 yards – this gives us a good idea of how much the Jaguars need Jones-Drew back at full strength. With a full off-season and more to recover from his injury and surgery, along with the team’s new zone blocking scheme, expect a strong bounce back year for Jones-Drew. He is currently being way undervalued in startup drafts and existing leagues. He is being drafted as the RB19 and can be had as late as the fifth of sixth round in startup drafts. For a contending team, Jones-Drew makes a very strong RB2 option and can be had much cheaper than some of the other starting running backs due to age and injury.
Justin Blackmon, WR JAX
Wide receiver Justin Blackmon got off to a slow start during his rookie season with the Jaguars. Through six games, he had only 126 receiving yards and no touchdowns. By the mid-season point, he began to make more of an impact in the Jaguars’ offense. From week eleven through the end of the season, Blackmon exploded for over 600 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Over that span, he was the WR8 and made for a solid weekly fantasy start. As a result of his strong finish to the season, Blackmon’s dynasty value has increased, but he is still only being drafted as the WR24 in startup leagues, which is even later than a year ago. With the Jaguars expected to upgrade over the Chad Henne/Blaine Gabbert combination at quarterback, Blackmon can expect to continue his hot streak into 2013 and makes him a strong buy candidate.
Kendall Wright, WR TEN
One of the most underrated wide receivers in dynasty leagues early this off-season has been Titans Kendall Wright. In a loaded wide receiver class, Wright tied for the lead among all rookies in receptions and was the only rookie to lead his team in targets and receptions. Even with Wright’s success, he is only being drafted as the WR36 around the seventh round. With teammate Kenny Britt always a threat to miss a game, due to either injury or off the field issues, Wright should have the chance to continue to earn more playing time and serve as the Titans’ top wide receiver. I am not ready to rely on Wright as a weekly starter, but he does offer some nice upside for a building team or a team choosing to focus on youth in a startup draft.
Taylor Thompson, TE TEN
Titans tight end Taylor Thompson was rarely used in his rookie season, but draft experts have raved about his athletic ability and surprisingly good hands, considering he converted from defensive end following the conclusion his college career. Reports regarding the team’s plan for starting tight end Jared Cook have varied. Some say they plan to lock him up to a long-term extension, which would obviously be bad news for Thompson’s prospects. Other reports say that Cook will only be franchised, or that the team may even let him walk and sign with a new team. Either of these latter options would be a plus for Thompson. He can likely be found on the waiver wire of your existing league or had near the end of a startup draft and is worth a bench spot in deep dynasty leagues while we wait to see how the Cook situation will be resolved.
Sells
Matt Schaub, QB HOU
In 2012, Texans quarterback Matt Schaub had another solid season, throwing for over 4,000 yards and twenty-two touchdowns in leading the Texans to a second consecutive division title. Schaub’s numbers were good enough to rank him as the QB17. While many would think that is very respectable, and it is, the middle-of-the-pack ranking, along with Schaub’s age means there is no upside. At this point in his career, he is not a player that will be your weekly starting fantasy quarterback. In almost every case, I would prefer a younger, higher upside player for my backup quarterback position, which means Schaub has very little value. Because of this, now is the time to try to move him to an owner who might not see things this way. There are plenty of owners who want the highest scoring, or highest ranked players on their team, regardless of any other circumstance. This is not always for the best and Schaub is one of those cases. Now may be your last chance to move Schaub for any value. I would easily take a second round rookie pick or a young prospect in exchange for him.
Arian Foster, RB HOU
There is no denying that Texans running back Arian Foster has been among the greats in the game the past three seasons. After breaking out in 2010 rushing for over 1,600 yards, he has followed that up with two more great seasons. Over those three years, he has rushed for over 4,200 yards and scored 47 touchdowns and each of the three seasons, he has finished as RB4 or better in each season. The bad news is over those same three seasons, he has averaged just under 25 touches per game, including over 350 carries in 2012. While Foster is far from old, he is nearing the age where running backs begin to lose value in dynasty leagues. Foster is no longer the slam dunk top overall pick in dynasty leagues. In fact, according to our January average draft position data, Foster was only the RB5 and it looks like he may fall further with the February mocks nearing an end. Foster does still demand a great deal of value in existing leagues and if I was a strong contender, I doubt I would trade him at all. Although, if your team has little chance of winning a title in 2013, now is the time to move Foster for a solid package of players and picks.
Vick Ballard, RB IND
As a rookie, all Vick Ballard did was go from late round NFL draft pick to starting running back for a playoff team. While that sounds very impressive, I don’t see Ballard as a player dynasty owners should rely on. Ballard only rushed for 814 yards on 211 carries, giving him 3.9 yards per carry. Ballard was given few opportunities in red zone or goal line situations, scoring only two touchdowns on the season. He also was not heavily used in the passing game, hauling in seventeen passes for just over 150 yards. Ballard beat out an injured Donald Brown for the starting job last season, which is not saying much, but it is clear the Colts will be adding another back to pair with Ballard, further watering down his fantasy numbers. It is also clear that the Colts will be a pass heavy offense for the next decade or so under Andrew Luck’s leadership. Given the choice, I’d prefer to own a backup running back that offers more upside like Ben Tate, Jacquizz Rodgers or Bernard Pierce, all of whom are being drafted behind the Colts starter.
Cecil Shorts, WR JAX
One of the NFL’s top breakout players in 2012 was Jaguars wide receiver Cecil Shorts. He caught 55 passes for 979 yards and scored seven touchdowns, leading the team in both receiving yards and touchdowns. Shorts suffered two concussions in the season’s final month, landing on injured reserve. While he has been cleared to resume football activities, multiple concussions are always a concern. When also considering Justin Blackmon’s impressive end of season run, it is very conceivable that Shorts ends up as the number two wide receiver on a passing offense that has many questions. With Shorts’ current ADP as a sixth rounder, I would be passing. There are many owners who seem to be enamored with Shorts, possibly due to his highlight reel of long touchdowns, so finding a buyer should not be a problem.
Chris Johnson, RB TEN
The 2012 season of Titans starting running back Chris Johnson was well documented. People could not stop talking about his early season swoon, yet once he bounced back he was largely ignored. Johnson still finished the season rushing for over 1,200 yards, although after the first three weeks, he only had 45 yards. Johnson finished as a borderline RB1 in twelve team leagues and he is being drafted in that same area. Currently, he can be had in the mid third round as the RB12. His value in existing leagues seems to be even less. Talking with two other fantasy players who I really trust, one said he thinks Johnson is worth less than the 1.03 rookie pick, while another shared his plan to “get anything he could” for Johnson this off-season. Just as I mentioned with Foster, Johnson is not old, but at 28 when the 2013 season begins, he could be considered old for a running back.
Check back next week for the final installment of our division-by-division buys and sells, the AFC West.
Follow @RyanMc23 on Twitter
- Monday Mocks: Expert 2024 Rookie Mock Draft - April 22, 2024
- Monday Mocks: 2024 Landing Spots - April 15, 2024
- Five Landing Spots That Would Tank Rookie WR Value - April 13, 2024
