AFC Rookie Wrap-Up: Part Two
During the season, the weekly Rookie Focus installment followed the progress of the 2012 rookie class as they attempted to carve out roles for themselves on their respective teams. The Rookie Wrap-Up will summarize the progress made for these players over the course of the season and determine where they stand entering the 2013 off-season. Team members entering free agency, the current competition, the depth chart layout and any public future plans will factor into their outlook in addition to their play throughout the season.
The quarterbacks of the 2012 rookie class were covered in great detail in A New Class of Quarterback, so I will focus on the other offensive positional players. If a player wasn’t a factor during the 2012 campaign, it’s quite possible they are one of my stashes. Without further ado, here is the Rookie Wrap-Up for the AFC North and AFC South Divisions.
AFC North
Bernard Pierce, RB BAL
Pierce had a very healthy workload for a rookie, totaling 108 carries for 532 rushing yards – this boasts a solid 4.9 yards per carry average. As the change of pace back for Ray Rice, Pierce was consistently utilized in every game this season. As the season progressed, he even had some games where he was given a more substantial amount of carries and did well with these opportunities. Having the emergence of Pierce allowed the Ravens to keep Rice’s total number of touches under control. Going forward, the workload distribution will likely remain similar to this year, or perhaps even give the rookie some more carries. There is no doubt Rice will remain the primary ball carrier in this backfield, but if he were to get injured, it would almost certainly lead to Pierce getting a full workload.
Mohammed Sanu, WR CIN and Marvin Jones, WR CIN
When this pair of rookies was drafted, many expected one of them to separate themselves in camp and immediately step into the wide receiver void across from superstar A.J. Green. Instead, the Bengals interchanged many different receivers to fill this role. Mohamed Sanu was the higher pick in the draft and favorite to emerge this year. At mid-season, he began earning more playing time and it had appeared he took over this role after stringing together four touchdowns in three consecutive games. However, just as quickly as he emerged, his season ended with a trip to the injured reserve after sustaining a stress fracture in his foot. This injury opened the door for fellow rookie Jones to take over the role across from Green. Sanu was never the clear cut favorite for the role and some analysts even believed Jones was more NFL-ready. Neither rookie truly separated themselves this season, leaving the role undecided going into the 2013 season. Both of these young receivers should be owned in your league. Expect them to enter camp fighting for the second wide receiver position in Cincinnati.
Josh Gordon, WR CLE
Gordon was one of the underappreciated rookies this year. As a bright spot in a young, struggling offense, Gordon was really heating up by mid-season and he showed every bit of ability owners were hoping for. Heading into the 2013 season, there will be many personnel changes in Cleveland. Norv Turner will be the new offensive coordinator and it has been speculated with another high draft pick the Browns may select a quarterback, but Gordon’s presence in the offense should be one constant. The Browns will give him every chance to succeed after obtaining him with a second round pick in the supplemental draft and should be a focal point in the passing game in the coming years. I think he has the potential to become at least a high-end WR2 in fantasy leagues. He may have been overshadowed by some other rookie performances this year, but his value has sky-rocketed nonetheless. Finishing with 50 receptions for over 800 yards and five touchdowns is no small feat for a rookie.
Travis Benjamin, WR CLE
Benjamin was used sparingly through the 2012 season as a WR3/4. He finished the season with just shy of 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but his playing time came primarily as a result of the many injuries the receiving core sustained. Due to his small build, he too was a victim of injury that kept him out of the lineup at times. He will begin the 2013 camp fighting for playing time as everyone returns to health.
Chris Rainey, RB PIT
I suppose his team label should now read “ex-PIT” after he was released following an arrest for domestic battery. He is a dynamic playmaker who should get another chance to contribute somewhere next season. If he’s on your team it’s likely as an end of the roster addition due to his playmaking ability. You might as well hold until his situation for next season figures itself out.
AFC South
T.Y. Hilton, WR IND
After being drafted as a late flier in most rookie drafts, Hilton managed to finish the season with 50 grabs for 861 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. He finished the season with five different 100 yard games, and in the second half of the year he actually out-produced Reggie Wayne. This year Hilton was able to develop some chemistry with rookie sensation Andrew Luck and there is certainly potential to take over of the team’s leading wide receiving role in the future with Wayne’s age a factor. Entrenched as the WR2 on a team with arguably the hottest prospect of the decade at the helm certainly helps your chances of success.
LaVon Brazill, WR IND
Last year Brazill played the role of the fourth wide receiver. He rarely contributed, but this off-season the Colts will be faced with some important decisions at the receiver position. Donnie Avery and Austin Collie are both free agents. While Collie has been a non-factor for some time due to his plethora of concussions, Avery had 112 targets in the 2012 regular season. If the Colts let him walk, there is an awful lot of production that needs to be distributed. I don’t know if it’s possible for Wayne to get more looks than he had last year, and although Hilton is a favorite for an increased role, he already had 88 targets last season. Regardless, Luck holds the potential to support multiple fantasy options and potentially growing alongside such a quarterback can mean good things for anyone’s future. He is worth a flier for that reason alone.
Vick Ballard, RB IND
Ballard finished the season with 211 carries for 814 yards, which computes to a modest 3.9 yards per carry average. He started the season taking a backseat to Donald Brown, but slowly fought his way into the mix. Ballard finished the season with the most carries and rushing yards on the team after Brown was placed on the season ending injured reserve. He had already earned himself the starting position, though, and once given the opportunity to be the feature back, he showed he could handle the load. Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians had high regards for him, which was evident as Ballard earned more playing time mid-season. Of course not everyone agrees Ballard is capable of being a workhorse, and with Arians moving on to the Head Coaching job in Arizona, his role next season is uncertain. It is unknown is if there will be additional competition at the running back position, but don’t expect Ballard to be handed the reins.
Colby Fleener, TE IND and Dwayne Allen, TE IND
In their first season in the NFL, Fleener and Allen handled all of the tight end work for the Colts. Contrary to many analysts’ hypotheses, it was Allen who finished with more snaps, targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. Though this is partially due to an injury causing Fleener to miss several weeks during the year, it seemed quite clear by the end of the season Allen was the favored over the higher draft pick. Given the choice in a startup draft today, I would select Allen over Fleener because he seems to be a much more well-rounded tight end who can be used in all circumstances. Their future roles, however, are far from determined. Expect both of their involvements to grow next season and they certainly have the potential to do a lot in this offense.
DeVier Posey, WR HOU
Posey only played in five regular season games and finished with just 87 total receiving yards. By the end of the season, however, he had finally earned some more playing time and even played a substantial role in the divisional playoff matchup against the Patriots (hauling in three receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown) before sustaining an Achilles tear in his left ankle. Before the injury, he was on pace to fight for a starting role during the 2013 season, but now it is unlikely he will be ready for the beginning of the season.
Keshawn Martin, WR HOU
Martin’s role was limited in 2012, though he did have a consistent presence throughout the season. Despite his weekly playing time, he didn’t have much to show for it. Right now, the Texans’ offense only truly supports one consistent fantasy wide receiver (Andre Johnson, of course) and is a running team first. Until the Texans prove otherwise, he is a longshot to be a serious fantasy consideration.
Justin Blackmon, WR JAX
As everyone expected, Blackmon stepped in as the WR1 for the Jaguars on day one. What people weren’t expecting was the emergence of Cecil Shorts, who came out of nowhere to actually lead the team in receiving. It is uncertain if Shorts can continue this production, but Blackmon showed everyone he does have the tools to be successful in the NFL. As a rookie, he managed 865 receiving yards and five touchdowns while playing a full complement of snaps. Once Chad Henne took over as quarterback in the second half of the season, Blackmon was targeted about ten times per game. The Jaguars maintain Blaine Gabbert will be in the running to start again next year, but I just don’t believe that will be the case after consecutive horrendous seasons. Given the success Blackmon has had despite the terrible quarterback play for the majority of the season, he could be in for big things in future seasons. The quarterback situation can only improve.
