Dynasty Stock Market: AFC East Off-season Buy and Sell Candidates

Ryan McDowell

cj_spillerThe weekly Dynasty Stock Market features not only price checks, but provides player features, draft projections, trade values or a variety of other relevant topics each week to make sure we’re covering everything our premium content followers are demanding.

With the dynasty off-season beginning, owners must shift their focus from the week-to-week decisions with hopes of winning the upcoming matchup to more of a long term view of the necessary steps to improve their teams. Near the top of each dynasty owners’ off-season “to do” list should be identifying players to buy or sell in the coming months. In the next few editions of the Dynasty Stock Market, division by division, I will share my opinions on players we should be buying or selling. I encourage you to list your own in the comments are below.

Often, when a fantasy buy and sell list is produced, the assumption is those players fall into either the “buy low” or “sell high” categories.  I am sure many of the players I mention will fit into one of these two groups, but not all will. Some of the players I will be targeting as “buys” already have a steep price, but it is a price I am willing to pay, based on that player’s expected future value and level or production. The same is true for players on the other end. There are some players I will be selling, even at a low price, in an effort to rid myself of that player before their value completely bottoms out.

Here is a look at some players to buy and sell from the AFC East:

Buys

CJ Spiller, RB BUF

Bills running back CJ Spiller enjoyed a breakout season in 2012, easily besting his career numbers in almost every category. Spiller gained over 1,700 yards from scrimmage and scored eight touchdowns, making him the RB6 on the season in PPR leagues. These numbers are obviously impressive, but Spiller was even better than his numbers indicate if you had the chance to watch his games. In most games, he appeared to easily be the best player on the field. Spiller’s value has obviously increased a great deal over the past year, as he is now being drafted early in the second round of startup drafts. With that comes a very high price in trade talks, but don’t let that scare you away.

TJ Graham, WR BUF

Once the Bills selected rookie wide receiver TJ Graham from North Carolina State, he instantly became a favorite deep sleeper of mine. While I did not know much about Graham, the Bills need at the wide receiver position was clearly evident. With below average players like Brad Smith, Marcus Easley, Donald Jones and David Nelson in his way, I liked Graham’s chances to climb the depth chart. Sure enough, thanks to injuries and poor performances of others, Graham became the Bills number two wide receiver along side Stevie Johnson. While Graham’s statistics were not overwhelmingly impressive, he did have over 300 receiving yards to go along with a touchdown. With the team expected to upgrade from Ryan Fitzpatrick at the quarterback position, there is a chance for some much improved play in 2013, not to mention the expectation of playing time throughout the season, as compared to the sporadic playing time he earned as a rookie. Graham makes a solid late round selection in a startup draft and could even be on the waiver wire in your existing dynasty league.

Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA

Many viewed the Dolphins selection of quarterback Ryan Tannehill early in the 2012 NFL draft as a reach, but he earned the starting job in training camp and produced a solid rookie season. Tannehill finished just shy of 3,300 passing yards, but did have a poor touchdown to interception ratio or 12:13. Further affecting his perceived dynasty value was the success of fellow rookie quarterbacks Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson. Each of those signal callers led their teams to the playoffs, while Tannehill’s Dolphins were never really in contention. Part of this could be traced back to the lack of weapons the team provided for him. The starting wide receivers were Davone Bess and Brian Hartline following the off-season trade of Brandon Marshall to the Chicago Bears. While both are solid NFL wide receivers, neither fits as a go to wideout for a rookie passer. There have already been plenty of rumors floating around that the team will attract one of the high end free agent wide receivers, such as Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe or Mike Wallace. If the team lands one of those, expect Tannehill to improve his numbers significantly in 2013. For now, he is only being drafted as the QB19, which feels like a steal.

Reggie Bush, RB MIA

This week, rumors surfaced the Dolphins would likely not resign free agent running back Reggie Bush. Although Bush’s two best seasons as a professional have been his past two in Miami, this is not a surprise considering the multiple needs the team currently needs to fill and the solid depth they have at the running back position. Early speculation has been that either the Bengals or the Lions could have interest in Bush. Both seem like great scenarios for the former Heisman winner. In Detroit, he would be paired with Mikel Leshoure and would provide the Lions with the running back they thought they had in Jahvid Best. He could be a dangerous weapon in that explosive offense. For the Bengals, he would share time with BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Although he had a very solid season in 2012, I think most would expect Bush to be the more successful fantasy back in that duo. While we are unsure of where Bush will end up, there are several options that could help him increase his dynasty value. Right now, he is relatively cheap, being drafted as the RB22 in our early dynasty mock drafts.

Lamar Miller, RB MIA

With the aforementioned Bush likely departing Miami, that leaves Lamar Miller as the favorite to earn the starting role. Miller’s playing time as a rookie fluctuated quite a bit. Early on, he posted impressive yardage with limited carries, but from week four through week fifteen, he only had seventeen carries total. He finished the season on an upswing, carrying the ball ten times for 73 yards in week 16 against the Bills. Early on this off-season, Miller has provided very good value and has been drafted at the RB32, but with the Bush rumors, expect his value to climb significantly as free agency nears.

Brian Hartline, WR MIA

Dolphins wide receiver Brian Hartline took advantage of the lack of offensive weapons I mentioned earlier and dominated the targets for Miami. Hartline gained over 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career, yet he only finished as the WR27, mostly due to the lone touchdown he scored. Had Hartline made better use of his ten red zone targets, he could have enjoyed a much better fantasy season. As I previously mentioned, the Dolphins are expected to bring in a big name free agent wide receiver this off-season, which should be good news for Hartline. While his targets will likely decrease, the coverage should be much easier for him as he is more suited for a second wide receiver role. For now though, Hartline is dirt cheap and falling all the way to round fifteen of startup drafts.

Ryan Mallett, QB NE

Another player who could possibly be found on your league’s waiver wire is Patriots quarterback Ryan Mallett, who has rarely played as Tom Brady’s backup. Mallet’s dynasty value comes from a few different factors, and none of those include what he has displayed on the field as a professional. First, Mallett is the heir apparent to one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. Brady, who will turn 36 just before the 2013 season, can’t have many years left, as impressive as he’s been. Another quarterback had to bide his time behind a future Hall of Famer is doing pretty well for himself in Green Bay right now. Second, Mallett was once a highly thought of prospect at quarterback. Although this carries little weight right now, he has a cannon for an arm and was very impressive in college. Some off the field concerns hurt his draft stock and made him a steal for the Patriots. Finally, there have been some trade rumors already this off-season involving Mallett. We heard the same thing last off-season regarding Brian Hoyer and we all know how that turned out. While I would be surprised if the Patriots dealt Mallett, it would help his dynasty value with a clearer path to a starting job.

Aaron Hernandez, TE NE

Despite dealing with an injury that cost him much of the season, Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez still finished as a top six fantasy tight end, according to average points per game in a PPR league. Even with the tight end label, Hernandez essentially plays the role of a wide receiver in the New England offense and with the possibility that slot wide receiver extraordinaire Wes Welker could leave via free agency, the targets could increase for Hernandez.  Just as he was a year ago, Hernandez is locked in as the TE3 in dynasty leagues, behind his teammate Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham of the Saints. Hernandez will be very costly, but he is still less expensive than those two stud tight ends.

Jeremy Kerley, WR NYJ

One player who flashed impressive skills from time-to-time this season was Jets wide receiver Jeremy Kerley. Kerley posted career highs with 56 receptions for over 800 yards and two scores. Still only 24 years old, Kerley could be penciled in as a starting wide receiver for the Jets for years to come. Under the disappointing Mark Sanchez, no Jets pass catcher had a very good season in 2012, but Kerley was the best of the bunch. With the team likely to upgrade at quarterback this off-season, there is room for Kerley to improve. Like Hartline, he is very cheap and is also being drafted round fifteen of startup drafts.

Stephen Hill, WR NYJ

If Kerley has one of the starting wide receiver spots locked down, expect the other one to go to Stephen Hill, who played rarely as a rookie and ended the season on the injured reserve list. Hill ended his rookie season with only twenty-one catches for 252 yards, but did score three touchdowns, which led all Jets wide receivers. Hill will only be 22 years old by the start of the 2013 season and is less than a year removed from being a first round rookie pick in many dynasty leagues. At his current value, he is a great target if you can find an owner to part with him. Those are likely the same owners who chose him in the first round, so that might not be so easy. He can be had later in startup drafts though, where he is currently being selected in the middle of round twelve.

Sells

Daniel Thomas, RB MIA

Dolphins running back Daniel Thomas has posted back-to-back disappointing seasons after Miami made him their second round section in 2011, with the hopes he would become a workhorse running back. Instead, Thomas has barely eclipsed 900 rushing yards in his two combined seasons. With the recent reports that Reggie Bush is on his way out of town, that leaves Thomas paired with Lamar Miller. Neither backup earned consistent playing time behind Bush, but the speculation from Dolphins beat writers is that Thomas will not even have a chance at the starter’s job. This tells us all we need to know about how the Dolphins feel about his future there. While his value is certainly not high, this chance at increased playing time may be your opportunity to move Thomas. I would hope for a second round pick in a rookie draft, but even that may be wishful thinking.

Tom Brady, QB NE

Many dynasty owners might be surprised to see Patriots quarterback Tom Brady listed as a sell, but as I mentioned earlier, he will be turning 36 before the 2013 season. We have seen players from all positions extending their careers into their late thirties, but even with that, we can only expect another two years for Brady. He is still being selected as the QB6 in the third round of startup drafts. The decision to move Brady comes down to the current status of your team. If you decide you are not a contender for 2013, it is an easy call to move Brady and target a younger quarterback such as Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick or Matt Ryan. For a contender, that decision becomes much tougher.

Shane Vereen, RB NE

After only amassing 400 combined yards and four touchdowns during the regular season, Patriots running back Shane Vereen exploded during the Patriots two playoff games, gaining 162 yards and scoring three touchdowns. Since then, his value quickly spiked and I have seen trades of Vereen for first round rookie picks. If that is the kind of value you are finding in your league, I recommend selling. It is always a challenge to predict how Patriots coach Bill Belichick will manage his running back rotation, but this year Stevan Ridley separated himself as the starter and dominated the carries through much of the season. Ridley did have trouble holding on to the ball at times, opening the door for Vereen and other members of the running back backfield.

Shonn Greene, RB NYJ

The good news for running back Shonn Greene is that he had the best season of his career just in time for chance at free agency. Greene had career highs with 276 carries, 1,063 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. The bad news is his yards per carry was his career low at 3.9 and his season was again viewed as a disappointment. The Jets seem ready to move on from Greene, even though they have few options behind him. Again, this says a lot about how they feel about Greene’s future in the league. Considering this recent market for free agent running backs, it would be a surprise for Greene to get a big contract or even to be signed to be an every down running back. Like Thomas, Green’s value is down, but you may find someone in your league who values him only because he has been a starting running back. Again, a second round rookie pick would be a fair request as you attempt to move on from Greene.

Check back next week when I discuss some buys and sells from the AFC North.

Follow @RyanMc23 on Twitter.

ryan mcdowell