Successful Running Back Measurement Analysis, Part Two: Backfields in Question
I recently put together an article that involved looking at the combine performances 20 of the top running backs in a PPR format. The goal was to attempt to create some kind of physical skill set template so that we can better evaluate players at the combine. This way we can figure out if players fit the physical mold of a top 20 back. If you missed the original article, you can find it here. If you didn’t read it, make sure you check it out so that you get a better idea of the method, scoring system, and the other details.
After that article, it was requested I take the results and look at several of the backfields that have questionable futures. It could be because they are a true committee with no lead back or that the lead back is going to be moving on within the next year or two. Either way, there could be a changing of the guard on these teams, so let’s see who has the better physical skill set and use that to help us make a guess about what might happen in the future.
I do feel compelled to repeat my warning – this system as a whole is meant to be used as a guide, not the end all be all. It is not perfect and is not going to take everything into account. For example, character, injury history, vision, patience, desire, work ethic, hands, ball security and all kinds of other items are not taken into account in any way – this merely measures the physical tools  a back has at his disposal. It is also a little harsh on players who have a poor showing at the combine or don’t participate in all of the drills.
As we look at some of these backfields, keep in mind the average top RB is in the 7-8 point range.
New England Patriots
Stevan Ridley (1 point) vs. Shane Vereen (10 points)
Just looking at the scores, it seems to be a landslide in favor of Vereen. However, most of the time that Ridley lost a point it was just barely, and often times Vereen was just barely in the range to gain a point. With that said, Vereen is the more talented of the two backs. He has better straight light speed and is actually stronger even though he is smaller. Ridley has better size and a very slight edge when it comes to changing direction. The bottom line is that Ridley’s starting job isn’t secure. Vereen has the talent to be a lead back. All he needs is for Ridley to get injured or to fumble away his chance. This isn’t a safe situation for Ridley, even though he’s the lead back now. Few things are more unpredictable than a Patriots backfield.
New York GiantsÂ
Ahmad Bradshaw (2 points) vs David Wilson (11 points) vs Andre Brown (8 points)
Bradshaw was the guy this year, but his age and injuries combined with the fact the Giants have issues with the salary cap have several wondering if he’ll be there next year. Even if he is, he doesn’t have the physical tools of Wilson or even Brown. Wilson is the fastest, has the best agility and the most explosion of the group. Brown has the size the others don’t have. In my mind, it isn’t a question of if, but when. Wilson will be the lead back with Brown as his compliment and goal line back, much like it was with Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs for a few years. The Giants like having multiple guys involved though, so this probably won’t ever be a true lead back situation.
Miami Dolphins
Reggie Bush (8 points) vs Daniel Thomas (8 points) vs Lamar Miller (8 points)
The scores indicate what we already know – this backfield is a bit of a mess. Bush is currently a free agent, but it sounds like he wants to return. If he does, it is a question of who comes after him. When comparing Thomas and Miller, both of them have their strong points. Thomas has good size while Miller has much more agility and speed. Of the two, Miller is closer to being a complete back and will probably get the lion’s share of the carries should Bush decide to move on, though it is probably too much to expect Miller to be a bell cow back.
Arizona Cardinals
Beanie Wells (10 points) vs Ryan Williams (9 points)
Between injuries, terrible quarterbacks and poor offensive line play, neither of these guys have been as good as they could have been. When we compare their physical skill sets, we see that the size and power are definitely on the side of Wells. The long speed and change of direction are on the side of Williams. The bottom line is that both of these guys have the skill set to be a lead back, and neither of them has a huge talent edge, that is assuming that either of them can stay healthy. So far, neither of them has been able to accomplish that, though Wells does have a slightly better track record of staying on the field. If either of them can stay out of the medical tent, they could easily win the job. If both are healthy, expect a hot hand approach.
St. Louis Rams
Isaiah Pead (7 points) vs Daryl Richardson (5 points)
Neither of these two seem to have exceptional physical tools at their disposal. Not that they are bad, they just aren’t anything special according to the numbers. When comparing the two, Pead has better size, though both of them are on the small side for a back. Both are almost identical when it comes to speed, quickness and agility; though that isn’t saying much since they are only slightly above the average in those areas. Of the two, I think Pead is the guy who is most likely to get the job once Steven Jackson moves on. However, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Richardson, or more likely a player not currently on the Rams’ roster that ends up splitting the load with Pead.
Denver Broncos
Knowshon Moreno (10 points) vs Ronnie Hillman (3 points)
Hillman’s score is a bit misleading due to his limited participation at the combine. Had Hillman participated in all of the drills, he probably would have had a score more in the 7 or 8 point range. Moreno’s big advantage is that he is bigger and stronger than Hillman. Plus, Moreno is twice the pass protector, which is a big deal for Peyton Manning. On the rest of the drills, Moreno was right on par with the average of the top running backs. Hillman’s limited participation makes it much harder to compare him, but he is faster and quicker than average by a small margin. I’m putting my money on Hillman being a compliment to someone in the future, maybe Moreno. I doubt that Hillman will ever be the only guy in Denver though.
Detroit Lions
Mikel Leshoure (10 points) vs Joique Bell (3 points)
The talent is clearly on the side of Leshoure in this one. Not only is he bigger, but he is stronger and faster than Bell. The only area that Bell is superior from a combine drill perspective was in the shuttle drill – in other words, stopping and restarting. I actually think Leshoure will continue to improve since he was coming off of a major injury, and that this will be his backfield the vast majority of the time. The injury might have sapped some of his speed, but he’s still a solid power back and the guy to own in this backfield while Bell is just a compliment.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Isaac Redman (no combine) vs Jonathan Dwyer (-2 points)
Neither of these guys can look at the combine and recall fond memories. Redman wasn’t invited and Dwyer had one of the worst combines for a high profile back in recent memory when he showed up out of shape and unprepared. Both of them have good size, but neither of them should be more than backups at the NFL level. I would be really surprised if the Steelers enter the 2013 season with these two guys on the top of their depth chart. They could bring free agent Rashard Mendenhall back or look somewhere else for the position, but I’m almost certain they will do something.
Indianapolis Colts
Vick Ballard (6 points) vs Donald Brown (10 points)
Ballard is the definition of a plodder. He has good size and strength, but he lacks speed and agility. He can be an okay one cut runner or short yardage back, but he isn’t going to wow anyone. Brown has a great skill set and there is a reason he was taken in the first round. However, since being in the NFL, it has been the traits you can’t measure that have landed him in trouble, such as hesitating to hit the hole. Brown is the better talent, but there are a lot of other things he needs to figure out if he’s going to be the lead back for the Andrew Luck led offense. If Brown doesn’t get it, the Colts will likely find someone explosive to pair with Ballard.
New Orleans Saints
Mark Ingram (1 point) vs Pierre Thomas (2 points)
Neither of these guys are very complete, but they don’t need to be. The Saints specialize better than just about anyone else in the league. When you combine these two with Darren Sproles, you get a backfield that doesn’t have anyone who can be a lead dog, but a group that is very complete as a collection. I would guess that Ingram will take more and more of the early down work since he is bigger and has better straight line speed than Thomas; however, Thomas will always be involved and Sproles is still the passing specialist.
I also looked at a few guys high profile guys that are clearly backups that might take over at some point for the primary guy or in case of injury.
Robert Turbin (8 points) – He has the size, the speed, and the skills to be a lead back if he is ever given the chance. His skill set is actually very close to that of the starter, Marshawn Lynch. Very much at the average of the top 20 backs and he could be a future bell cow in the making.
Ben Tate (14 points) – Tate had one of the best combines for a running back in the past 10 years, so it isn’t any surprise that he scored this well. There was a reason that everyone was very high on him. That, of course, was before he destroyed his ankle and before Arian Foster was a household name. He isn’t going to steal the job from Foster, but should Foster ever get injured, Tate is more than capable to answer the call full time.
Jacquizz Rodgers (-3 points) – I was very surprised by this one. I wasn’t expecting a great score, but I wasn’t expecting something like this. Rodgers didn’t have a very good combine or pro day. I’ve always thought of him as fast and agile, but that really wasn’t the case. He was slow, lacked explosiveness and didn’t show great change of direction skill either. In other words, he really didn’t show much of anything at all. Michael Turner is pretty much done and this just confirmed what I already believed – Rodgers isn’t the whole answer.
Bernard Pierce (7 points) – Aside from being a little bit low on the bench press, Pierce was almost dead on the average of the top 20 backs in just about every drill. He has the talent to be a very good three down back and a bit of a jack of all trades. He compares pretty closely to Matt Forte from a physical skill set perspective, being above average in everything, but not excelling at anything.
Check back after the combine for a look at the rookie class!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
