Welcome to the latest edition of the mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1: Who is a better TE target for 2013 and beyond – Fleener or Finley? – via Twitter
First off, sorry that I didn’t catch your Twitter handle, but hopefully getting your question answered is good enough! Second, this could rate as one of the hardest questions I’ve received this year.
Jermichael Finley is so enigmatic to me. Just when I think he is done, he’ll put up a solid stat line. While it may not feel like it, his 2012 production is about the same as his 2011 – he just hasn’t produced any TDs. Analyzing his 2012 isn’t all that useful however as I fully expect he will be on a different team in 2013. What I think we can safely say is that he is athletically gifted and if motivated can produce solid numbers.
Coby Fleener is a different case. I was admittedly one the biggest Fleener backers during rookie draft time. I felt he had a high floor if not a particularly high ceiling. Maybe a bit like say Heath Miller. While that’s not exactly unwrapping an iPad on Christmas, it gets the job done. I figured that his history with Andrew Luck would make him the go to TE. Well that hasn’t happened. Dwayne Allen has had more targets, has done more with them and to make matters worse neither was a viable fantasy option. Truth be told, if I was drafting today I believe I’d take Allen before Fleener and I wouldn’t be counting on either as a TE1 in 2013.
To answer the question, I’d rather own Finley. He could be a total bust but of the two I think he has greater upside. I also think that his trade value could spike rather quickly. Not that I’m saying this will happen, but imagine a situation where he goes to Atlanta to replace Tony Gonzalez in that offense. What would he be worth before he even takes a snap in the Georgia Dome?
2: I have Brees and Big Ben but want a QB for the future. I’ve offered the 2.01 and a later rookie pick for Kaep. I expect the owner to say no to that. What about offering the same deal for Dalton and how big is the gap between Dalton and Kaepernick? – Matt in Chattanooga
A few things on this one.
One: You don’t need to be in a rush to replace Drew Brees. He’s got plenty left in the tank. I am convinced at this point that we need to rethink how we judge career longevity for QBs. The new rules against hitting QBs will inevitably lead to longer careers. Guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Brees will be producing for fantasy owners for several more years.
Two: I’d be really careful how much I invested in adding either Colin Kaepernick or Andy Dalton. I am generally very leery of trading in to areas of strength on my team. You own Brees and you don’t mention trading him, so I infer that you are in a potential championship window. If that’s the case, that should be the focus. There’s time to reload after you hoist the trophy. I’d use your assets to add players at RB or WR that will increase your chances of winning in 2013 and 2014. Trust me; you’ll start Brees every week in those seasons.
Three: If you are hell bent on going after a young QB, you should at least include Big Ben in the deal. There is absolutely no reason to keep him around if you end up with Brees and a young prospect. And it should make getting a deal done easier/cheaper. I know if I was sitting on say A.Rod/Wilson, I’d be more inclined to do a deal if I saw a viable QB2 coming back my way.
Four: As to your offer; I’d say it’s light for either player. Both Dalton and Kaep are legit QB2s and Kaep has some upside on that. For me, that’s worth more than a second round rookie pick because the most I could hope to get with that is either a similar QB or a lottery ticket WR or RB.
3: I’m back! What are you doing with CJ?K at this point? He seems to have bounced back, but can he be trusted? – Jason now from Oregon
Well Jason I give you an A+ for consistency and perseverance. Plus you were smart enough not to take my advice earlier and deal CJ?K for cents on the dollar. Kudos to you and I hope you won your league.
Johnson finished out the season with a mixed bag of games. Some strong, others just so-so. He remains the bell cow back and is getting significant touches (except when the Titans fall behind by 55 points). Pure speculation, but I expect the Munchak regime to be done after this year. As a loyal Titans fan I can’t see much if any evidence of how the team is moving forward and developing and the lack of effort in Green Bay is frankly an embarrassment to the coaching staff. I know that Bud Adams has demanded an explanation from Munchak and said publicly that he turned the game off in the middle. Yikes!
I will have CJ?K ranked as a high end RB2 for redraft going in to 2013 – in the mix with a guy like Demarco Murray. Given Johnson’s style of game, team situation and age; this is about how I’d draft him in a dynasty start-up as well. He’s certainly better than the slew of guys after him who either have stiff competition for touches or simply aren’t as physically gifted.
4: I need a RB. How hard would you go after Spiller this off-season and is he a good target? – Braxton in Sunny L.A.
Hopefully you catch an owner who thinks it’s somehow fluky that CJ Spiller put up the numbers he did. The problem is that most owners (like myself) have been holding Spiller like an old Linus Blanket waiting for this break out. It’s been a wonderful “I told you so moment”! Owners like me aren’t parting with Spiller unless you’re willing to give up the King’s Ransom. I’d demand a first round start up caliber player in return for him and would accept nothing less.
I think the only way you’re going to get him is either blind luck or if you are extremely deep at WR and can afford to deal away what will be an immediate WR1 for the Spiller owner. Given the history, it’s not impossible that the Spiller owner doesn’t exactly “need” him. He’s been playing without him for much of his ownership so I suppose you might be able to work that angle.
While I’m not clutching to Spiller like I am AJ Green, I’ll tell you that I’d need to be blown away by a deal to move him and if you came in light with the opening offer I wouldn’t waste much time with it at all.
5: Is it possible that Dwayne Bowe is a buy low candidate? I’m intrigued by his impending team change and wonder if owners are sick of him. – Rob in Vermont
Funny you should ask that. I traded for Bowe in my SC league even though he’s on an expiring contract. My bet was that he would provide injury insurance down the stretch run of the end of the season and playoffs (that didn’t work out) and that his RFA rights might be of interest to me next off-season (maybe that will work out).
Aside from the usual suspects, there are a number of teams that might sneak in to the mix to go after one of the stud WR free agents. For what it’s worth, I have Bowe ranked as the number one FA WR from an NFL perspective – above both Mike Wallace and Greg Jennings. I could see the Colts being in the hunt, maybe the Patriots, Steelers or Washington.
There are situations where Bowe becomes an extremely attractive fantasy (and dynasty) asset. It all comes down to what the price tag will be in a trade. If you can move any (yes even the 1.01) rookie pick for Bowe I’d do that without much hesitation. We know what Bowe is capable of doing when he is interested and there is even a semi-competent QB in the pocket.
Editor’s Note: Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.