Dynasty Stock Market: Going, Going, Gone, Part II
The weekly Dynasty Stock Market features not only price checks, but provides player features, draft projections, trade values or a variety of other relevant topics each week to make sure we’re covering everything our premium content followers are demanding.
There’s a phrase I’ve heard and read more this season than ever before…”He’ll never play another down for that team.” This is a very strong opinion that has been said about many players this season for a variety of reasons. This year more than most, it seems that there are players that are sure to be changing teams once the off season is in full swing.
As dynasty owners, it is very important to not only follow these situations, but to be one step ahead in assessing how a change in scenery could affect the value of these players. In the past, we have seen Hall of Fame careers revitalized by a switch to a new team, like Randy Moss being dealt by the Raiders to the Patriots. We have also seen promising fantasy players fade away. A recent example is tight end Zach Miller signing with the Seattle Seahawks, only to see his catches, yards and fantasy value evaporate. We could see some similar changes this season as players find new teams.
While it impossible to predict exactly where these players might end up, it is crucial to follow along with the news and rumors surrounding these players and make the appropriate moves with our dynasty teams. Here, I’ll take a look at a few players that are almost certain to be sporting a new jersey next season, how that will affect their dynasty value and what they might be leaving behind.
Last week, we took a look at quarterbacks and running backs that could be looking for new homes in a matter of weeks. Now, here are some pass catchers who also could be relocating.
Dwayne Bowe, WR KC
Why is he going?
The Chiefs made wide receiver Dwayne Bowe their first round pick in 2007 and he has been their top wide receiver throughout his six year career, surpassing 1,000 receiving yards on three occasions. Even though he has been very consistent for the Chiefs, Bowe has not been the fantasy stud that many consider him. Other than a WR2 finish in 2010, Bowe has not managed any other seasons as a top fifteen wide receiver. His fate in Kansas City was basically sealed last off-season when he and the team were unable to come to terms on a long term contract. After holding out, Bowe eventually signed a one year tender. Bowe was closing in on another 1,00 yard season when he suffered a rib injury in week 14. He missed the rest of the game and was later placed on the injured reserve list, ending his season. The Kansas City Star reported this week that the team is unlikely to offer Bowe the long term deal he desires.
Where could he end up?
There are plenty of teams that would love to have a big target like Bowe for their quarterback to throw the ball to. One option that has been repeatedly discussed is the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are in desperate need for wide receivers and Bowe grew up in South Florida. At 29, this is Bowe’s last shot at a big payday, so he is likely to follow the money. The Dolphins are a lock to bring in a wide receiver; it’s just a matter of whom they choose, and who might be willing to take part in the rebuilding plan there. Bowe has never played on a team that had great success, so he could prefer to play for a contender now that he has the option. Other teams that could be interested in Bowe include Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina and many others.
What’s left in Kansas City?
Once Bowe’s departure is official, there will be little left when it comes to offensive weapons. The team is in need of a new starting quarterback and will be left with Jon Baldwin as their top wide receiver. Other wide receivers left on the roster include Terrance Copper, Devon Wylie and Dexter McCluster. While Baldwin has a lot of potential, he has yet to display the ability to be a consistent starter in the NFL. The Chiefs clearly have some work to do on the offense and with the recent reports that both head coach Romeo Crenel and general manager Scott Pioli will be relieved of their duties at the end of the year, the new brass in Kansas City will have their work cut out for them.
Mike Wallace, WR PIT
Why is he going?
Wide receiver Mike Wallace’s story is similar to that of Bowe. After three seasons in Pittsburgh, two of those which saw him finish as a top ten fantasy wide receiver, Wallace was looking for a long term last offseason. Like Bowe, the two sides did not come to terms and Wallace eventually signed his tender. Early on this season, it was assumed that, following the bad blood of the offseason, Wallace would be looking for a new team in 2013. Although those reports have cooled somewhat as the season went along, most fans and experts still expect him to move on when free agency opens.
Where could he end up?
Again, as with most wide receivers that will be available this offseason, the Miami Dolphins are a hot team when Bowe rumors begin flying. Unlike Bowe, Wallace has been part of a winning team. That could mean he is willing to take the biggest payday regardless of the team, or that could cause him to focus on contenders in order to keep up his winning ways. Wallace is a deep threat with great speed, a skill that many teams covet. Options that could make sense include San Diego, Chicago or the New York Jets.
What’s left in Pittsburgh?
The wide receiver position has been a strength for the Steelers in recent years with the “young money” trio of Wallace, Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, but Sanders has battled consistency and health issues and the team may not be ready to count on him as an every week starter. Although Brown is small in stature, he has shown that he can handle the assignment as a WR1 for his team. With solid veterans Jerricho Cotchery and Plaxico Burress rounding out the depth chart, the Steelers are likely to bring on another wide out that could compete for a starting role.
Greg Jennings, WR GB
Why is he going?
Greg Jennings has had a great seven year career with the Green Bay Packers, but that looks to be coming to an end as the season closes out. Jennings will be entering free agency and has already made it known he wants no part of playing under the franchise tag in Green Bay. At 29 years old, this will be Jennings last big contract. Although there seems to be no bad blood between Jennings and the Packers front office, it is doubtful they are willing to reward an aging wide receiver with a long term deal, consider the other players already on the roster.
Where could he end up?
You guessed it! The Dolphins will likely be among Jennings’ suitors. Again, Miami has a great chance to sign one of these three big name wide outs. Jennings does have ties to the Michigan area, growing up and attending college there. Although the Lions do have a sudden need at the wide receiver position, there is nothing else to suggest there would be interest on either side. One team that seems like a perfect fit is the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks have had a terrific year under rookie quarterback Russell Wilson, but lack a top wide receiving option.
What’s left in Green Bay?
Taking a look at the Packers wide receiver depth chart, it is clear that they prefer to fill the position from the draft, rather than signing free agents. In fact, none of the wide receivers on their depth chart have ever played for another team. Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Randall Cobb give the Packers a very strong wide receiver trio. With the possibility the veteran Donald Driver may retire, the team would need to bring in some depth, but they would not be forced to find top end options.
Titus Young, WR DET
Why is he going?
Second year wide receiver Titus Young has a very different story than the other players mentioned here. He lacks the history of success of the other three wideouts, and is carrying a lot of baggage as he possibly leaves Detroit. The Lions took a risk as they drafted Young in the second round out of Boise State, despite some off the field concerns. Despite a couple of troubling situations involving teammates, Young’s rookie season was deemed a success, at least in fantasy terms, as he gained over 600 yards on 48 catches. During offseason workouts a year ago, Young was sent away from the team after punching teammate Louis Delmas. That was the beginning of the end for Young’s time in Detroit. Although he returned to the team, his season was a huge disappointment as he only caught 33 balls for 383 yards before being suspended for conduct detrimental to the team. Most assumed that Young’s issues were again to disputes with teammates, but it was later revealed to be an even more serious offense, in football terms. Young had purposely lined up in the wrong position in the team’s week eleven game against the Packers. In NFL circles, this is an indefensible crime. There is no good reason to do this and it shows a lack of maturity on Young’s part. Every person I have seen comment on this situation has stated that there is no way the team could bring Young back after this, especially with the recent comments of some of his teammates and even head coach Jim Schwartz.
Where could he end up?
Young will not have nearly the number of suitors that other free agent wide receivers will have, due to his off the field history and this most recent offense on the field. Although we don’t know specific teams, it has been reported that multiple teams had either taken him off their draft board, or at least moved him down, due to his history of fighting with teammates. In his two seasons in the league, he has done nothing to improve his reputation. While I do think that some team will be willing to take on Young and the headaches he can cause, it is impossible to predict who might be willing to take the chance. In the past, we have seen strong teams from top to bottom, like the New England Patriots or the Green Bay Packers take on some characters risks and even turn them around. There are also teams known to not be afraid of these types of players, but the Lions were one of those, as are the Bengals. A team like New England would probably be best for Young, but it will come down to which head coach is willing to take a chance on the young talented player. His options will be limited and his dynasty value is disappearing.
What’s left in Detroit?
What seemed like a strength for the team entering the season has suddenly become a concern. Obviously, they still have one of the best players in the league, Calvin Johnson. After Johnson though, the Lions have already lost Young and veteran Nate Burleson to injuries this season, along with rookie Ryan Broyles. It is unclear when he may be able to return. The Lions will be in the market for some wide receiver depth.
Jermichael Finley, TE GB
Why is he going?
Packers tight end Jermichael Finley enjoyed a breakout year in 2009 and entered the 2010 season near the top of the dynasty ranks, but his season was cut short as he suffered a season ending injury and played only four full games. In 2011, Finley posted a respectable comeback season, but began to have trouble with dropped passes. There were even some leaked reports of trouble between Finley and quarterback Aaron Rodgers. That all came to a head this season, as Finley has been very disappointing for the Packers and fantasy owners. Finley currently ranks as TE22. Although he has one season left on his contract, reports say that the Packers are unwilling to pay Finley the nearly $8 million he is due, which includes a $3.5 million roster bonus in March. Expect Finley to hit the open market before that roster bonus comes due.
Where could he end up?
Finley should have several options. Many teams, including some contenders, lack a talented tight end with Finley’s talent. The other factor aiding Finley is the new trend of teams using more multiple tight end sets, which teams like the Patriots have perfected. Knowing this is a copycat league, even some teams with a solid starting tight end could be interested in Finley services. Among teams that could be in the market for a tight end are the Falcons, Bears and Giants.
What’s left in Green Bay?
Dynasty owners in deeper leagues already know the answer to this. Packers back up tight end DJ Williams has been a hot pick up across my leagues as the season winds down. In two seasons, Williams only has six catches for fifty yards, but savvy owners project Williams to take over the starting tight end role and the targets that come with it. If Williams is still available in your league, now is a great time to add him and stash him on your roster. The Packers also have Andrew Quarless, who will be returning from an injury. He missed the entire 2012 season, but played a solid role for the Packers in 2010, when Finley missed much of the season. It is assumed the job is Williams’ to lose, but let’s see how the offseason workouts play out.
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