You don’t Know-‘Shon – Assessing Knowshon Moreno

 

In fantasy terms, this has been a bad year for me. Two of the three teams I own are doing well, but the other is a much different story. If you’re like me, your success is based on the team in your favorite league, and that team made a mistake which I’ll never live down – trading Doug Martin for Ryan Mathews. Martin had finished a week scoring only three points, and Mathews was the buy-low of the season. As we know, Martin has risen to an elite-level dynasty talent while Mathews has come down with a horrible touchdown allergy.  I’ve sent out a search party to find an RB2 ever since.

This brings us to the final week of November; Willis McGahee is placed on IR and people rush to add the pick-up of the week, Ronnie Hillman. Many concluded that Hillman was next in-line for the starting job in Denver’s backfield. This all changed about an hour before Sunday kickoff (or you if you read our waiver advice earlier in the week) when reports surfaced that Knowshon Moreno rather than Hillman, would get the opportunity.

Anytime a team takes a running back in the first round, he’s expected to be an impact player. When he gets taken 12th, he’s expected to dominate – that’s where Moreno was drafted back in 2009. In fact, only two running backs have been taken higher than Moreno since that year – CJ Spiller and Trent Richardson. Since then, Moreno has never shown the athleticism that got him selected that highly.

His first two seasons in Denver were spectacularly average, running for barely over four yards per carry in two seasons. Once John Fox was named Head Coach heading into 2011, some thought it would project Moreno into a legit RB1. That never happened. It’s a safe bet to assume that Fox looked at Moreno and saw a player not without talent, but lacking commitment. At no point was this more evident than during this past off-season. While recovering from a torn ACL in week ten last year, Moreno was arrested for a DUI after police found his Bentley convertible with a license plate reading “SAUCED.” If that’s not bad enough, the Broncos have to get a full-body shiver when they look at the running backs that were selected after him in 2009:

Beanie Wells, 31st, Arizona

LeSean McCoy, 53rd, Philadelphia

Shonn Greene, 65th, New York Jets

Arian Foster, undrafted, Houston Texans

When a player messes up off the field, bringing his commitment into question, that’s when the team makes other plans. I was all but convinced that Moreno was closer to making a quiet exit from Denver and the NFL when they selected Hillman last April, but something happened; the light bulb went on inside Moreno’s head. After shutting his mouth, putting the work in, and being patient enough to wait for an opportunity to present itself, Moreno got his chance in Week 12 and took advantage, tallying 85 yards on 20 carries.

I decided to take a flyer on Moreno before that game, and have been reaping the benefits ever since, culminating in a 167-yard Week 14 performance in Oakland. As a former first-round pick, many figured he was embarking on a respectable opportunity, but few thought he would instantaneously receive an elite workload. In fact, no running back has received more carries than Moreno over the past three weeks:

#	NAME	TEAM	POS	CARRIES
1	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	RB	72
2	Adrian Peterson	MIN	RB	70
3	Alfred Morris	WSH	RB	69
4	Jamaal Charles	KC	RB	68
5	Doug Martin	TB	RB	67

If you remember the work of Edgerrin James or Joseph Addai in Indianapolis, you may recall being a running back for Peyton Manning is like driving a Ferrari on an empty Autobahn; endless opportunity, and room to work with. Moreno’s Week 14 performance made him a dependable RB2 option, as he lined up in the backfield on 64 of Denver’s 87 offensive plays. He hasn’t looked great, but on 36 touches, even a bad night can give you big numbers.

Going forward, pay attention to his final three games, and the off-season reports. He still needs to make a lasting impression, as his dynasty value is contingent on him returning as Denver’s starting tailback next season. Chances are he won’t be when McGahee returns, but if he gets the gig, it probably won’t hurt you to sell-high on him anyway. Moreno still lacks the elite skills of a franchise dynasty back. These last three games serve as his audition, so watch closely. At worst, he’s a solid RB2 option in your playoff weeks. Moreno’s talent level isn’t anything close to elite, but he doesn’t have to be as long as his workload stays the course. That’s more than enough to help you win-now.

What are your thoughts on the emergence of Knowshon Moreno? 

Follow Dan Hasty on Twitter @DanHasty34