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The Dynasty Aftermath: Week Thirteen


Welcome to DLF’s Dynasty Aftermath. This Tuesday staple has long been one of our signature pieces as we have a little fun after a tough week at the Dynasty League Football office. You’ll find this article will review the week’s happenings in a variety of ways and help set you up for the coming weeks as we spin around the league in the way we know best. After twelve weeks, the contenders are starting to further set themselves apart from the pretenders in both reality and fantasy.

Let’s take our weekly spin around the league!


Week Thirteen Fantasy MVP

As always, there were lots of candidates for the award this week.  Andrew Luck, Brandon Myers or how about the amazing Bryce Brown?  Let’s go with Calvin Johnson, who has now posted four relatively ridiculous weeks of fantasy scoring … in a row!  Over the past month, depending on your scoring format of course, Johnson has  128+ fantasy points, give or take.  In week 13 alone, Calvin posted 36 points through 13 receptions, 171 yards and a single touchdown.  On 20 targets!   Coaches have had to put up with a few snoozers from Megatron this year but he’s been huge of late.  And heading into fantasy playoffs, you want a huge Johnson.

Sorry.


Week Thirteen Fantasy LVP

There are so many deserving candidates for this week’s LVP award.  Drew Brees‘ disastrous Thursday night performance is an easy choice.  But rather than take a single poor performance from week 13, let’s instead give this week’s nod to a player that has certainly been deserving for multiple weeks running:  Larry Fitzgerald.  His troubles are well known.  He’s got a third-string quarterback, who has been throwing like a third string right tackle, under center and defenses have learned simply to play bracket coverage and force other receivers to step up.  None have.

Over the past three weeks, Fitzgerald has tallied five passes for an amazing 66 yards.  Even more impressive is the fact that he’s been targeted 26 times over that span, good for less than a 20% conversion rate.  It’s not like Fitzgerald has a narrow or limited catch radius.  He’s simply unplayable for the rest of the year.  Yet, he still manages to be professional and composed.  Very impressive Mr. Fitzgerald, most from around the league should take a queue from how you operate, week in, week out.  Sorry to have to hang this award on you.


Lineup Fun The virtually unbeatable lineup of the week…

QB Andrew Luck IND = 391 passing yards, four touchdowns, 33 yards rushing
RB Bryce Brown PHI = 24 carries, 169 yards, two touchdowns.  Four receptions, 14 yards
RB Adrian Peterson MIN =21 carries, 210 yards, one touchdown.  One reception, 10 yards
RB DeMarco Murray DAL = 23 carries, 83 yards, one touchdown.  Four receptions, 19 yards
WR Calvin Johnson DET = 13 receptions, 171 yards, one touchdown
WR Demaryius Thomas DEN =Eight receptions, 99 yards, two touchdowns
WR Wes Welker NE = 12 receptions, 103 yards, one touchdown
TE Brandon Myers OAK = 14 receptions, 130 yards, one touchdown

The dominant underdog lineup of the week…

QB Russell Wilson SEA = 293 passing yards, two touchdowns.  Nine rushes, 71 yards.
RB Bryce Brown PHI =  24 carries, 169 yards, two touchdowns.  Four receptions, 14 yards
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN = 25 carries, 118 yards.  Four receptions, 14 yards
RB James Starks GB = 15 carries, 66 yards, one touchdown.  Two receptions, 16 yards
WR Donny Avery IND = Five receptions, 91 yards, two touchdowns
WR Josh Gordon CLE =Six receptions, 116 yards, one touchdown
WR Golden Tate SEA = Five receptions, 96 yards, one touchdown
TE Jacob Tamme IND = Nine receptions, 89 yards

The unexpectedly horrible lineup of the week…

QB Drew Brees NO = 341 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, 5 interceptions
RB Ryan Mathews SD = Nine carries, 26 yards.  Three receptions, 25 yards
RB Darren Sproles NO = 0 carries.  Five receptions, 47 yards
RB Chris Johnson TEN = 13 carries, 51 yards.  Four receptions, 20 yards
WR Torrey Smith BAL = Three receptions, 33 yards
WR Vincent Jackson TB = Three receptions, 55yards
WR Roddy White ATL = One reception, 20 yards
TE Dennis Pitta BAL = One reception, 19 yards


Gut Checks

I’d be worried if…

If I’m counting on anything for the following running backs, now or in 2013:  Donald Brown, Rashad Jennings, Beanie Wells, Jonathan Stewart or Ronnie Hillman.  I realize there are some bigger names here in Stewart and Hillman, but at some point we have to label Stewart a bust and Hillman a deep project.  I expect all of these backs to just slowly fade away.

Ryan Broyles was my secret weapon heading into the playoffs (or 2013?).  You have to feel terrible for Broyles.  We all here at DLF are big fans and have been highlighting him since last year before the draft.  Now he’s ‘done’ his good knee and will likely miss at least a portion of 2013,  Working in his favor is his size and position, not to mention his work ethic.  We’re not counting him out at all, but owners need to give him until 2014 to be back to full health.

I was/am counting on Michael Vick.  He’s done in Philly.  There’s no reason for the Eagles to put him under center again.  The Nick Foles era has begun.

I believe Nick Foles is the next franchise quarterback for the Eagles.  In the preseason, I had begun to believe that perhaps Foles was going to prove me wrong.  His shoddy mechanics, poor decision making and happy feet when the pocket broke down seemingly had been left in the rear view mirror.  They’re back.  I just don’t see anything special about him that leads me to believe he’s going to develop.  And Philly is the wrong place for a trial by fire.

I play against Tony Romo in the playoffs.  Romo has always been a streaky player, but when he’s on and throwing with confidence, he’s really on.  While he does have a tougher match-up against Pittsburgh in week 15, he plays at home vs. New Orleans in week 16.  Dez Bryant has been a monster and DeMarco Murray is back.  All arrows are pointing north for Tony Romo.

I’m a Jets fan.

I’m hoping for a return to prominence for 49’er tight end Vernon Davis.  Chemistry is no longer there in Jim Harbaugh’s offense, at least as far as the tight end position goes.  Furthermore, Davis’ feelings are starting to bubble to the surface and it has all the makings of an ugly end to the season.  Whether Davis has been deemphasized, used as a decoy or can no longer get open, he’s going to end up one of the bigger disappointments in 2012.

I’m counting on riding Bryce Brown’s hot hand into the playoffs.  The fact remains that, while Brown has looked tremendous in his two games as a starter, he’s still LeSean McCoy’s backup and there is no competition here.   McCoy should be back soon and will, at worst, split time with Brown.  There’s not a lot of incentive for the Eagles to over-work McCoy through the end of the season, but he’ll still get the lion’s share of the touches.

I have any connection to Titus Young.

I underestimated Russell Wilson’s ability to be a NFL quarterback.  I never under-estimated this guy’s heart but I did question whether or not Wilson could be a long term starter at the NFL level.  It’s too soon to tell, but all systems are ‘go’ for the rookie.  Wilson is doing more than just managing the game.  He’s putting the team on his back and winning tough games.  The Hawks haven’t been good on the road for some time, but Wilson is starting to turn that around.  His gritty win in Chicago was a thing of beauty.  I don’t believe he’ll ever be elite, but he can be top 15.

I’ve accumulated 2013 draft picks in hopes of rebuilding my team.  The 2013 draft looks as weak as any draft has in a long time, especially at the offensive skill positions.  Unless you need a quarterback, it’s going to be a crap shoot of massive proportion.

Jeff Haverlack
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Cyrus Miller
9 years ago

“If I’m counting on anything for the following running backs, now or in 2013: Donald Brown, Rashad Jennings, Beanie Wells, Jonathan Stewart or Ronnie Hillman. I realize there are some bigger names here in Stewart and Hillman, but at some point we have to label Stewart a bust and Hillman a deep project. I expect all of these backs to just slowly fade away.”

Disagree about Stewart and Hillman.

First, the guys I agree with– Brown, Jennings and Wells have shown nothing to make me think they are special or can stay healthy (For Brown and Wells). I really liked Wells coming out, but he just has never looked special and he is always banged up.

But Hillman should not be included on this list– just because they ignored him doesn’t mean next year won’t change. Remember when DeAngelo Williams was a rookie? John Fox benched him. Remember when Stewart was a rookie? John Fox benched him. It doesn’t matter how good Hillman might be, John Fox prefers veterans. I think Hillman will develop eventually. That said, I think he was overrated in drafts and isn’t as good as Stewart or Deangelo were.

As for Stewart, this ankle injury doesn’t bother me at all. The offense is the problem, and I expect them to work on it in the offseason and for him to be the feature back next year. I don’t see how anything has changed, to be honest.

If you hate him, he is in a RBBC on a team with a QB who will steal TD’s. If you like him, he will be the feature back on a running offense with higher picks to improve and an underperforming offense.

I am not saying he is top 10, but I think he is being sold short and nothing I’ve seen makes me think he won’t be better next year. I think his pre-season injuries stayed with him all year and he never had burst.

Josh Gans
Reply to  Cyrus Miller
9 years ago

Well said and I agree…though I traded JStew in one of my leagues earlier on 🙂

Cyrus Miller
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
9 years ago

I was one of those that stayed away from Hillman in the draft, he wasn’t worth a first round pick to me. I don’t know if he will be the feature back.

I guess my point regarding him is the lack of playing time this year (and choosing Moreno over him to start) is not indicative of anything other than Fox’s predilection for veterans.

For people that thought he would be the guy after McGahee, this year didn’t change anything. For you and I, who thought he was a tad overrated, this year also shouldn’t change anything.

And yeah, Stewart is looking like a bad investment for most. I was lucky enough to trade him for two top 3 picks (bad team that I knew was going to be bad, got the 1.01 and 1.03 in the next two years) and then trade to get him back. So I am not bitter about his lack of production, just optimistic that he still has talent and will be good next year.

SJ
Reply to  Cyrus Miller
9 years ago

… questioning Stewart’s value is just an argument waiting to happen. Always has always will.

I commend Jeff for taking the guts here, and happen to agree with him.

Paul
9 years ago

Did this article have to pass through DLF’s big brother like censorship that Jonathan Stewart is a bust?

Jon Lambrecht
Reply to  Paul
9 years ago

Yeah… A lot of group think “man crush love” on Stewart. Has been for a long time. I don’t expect it to go away. I suggested long ago to abandon that hype train. Jump off soon or sink…. your call.

By far the best site for Dynasty discussion in my opinion but – The group think at times is a joke. At least as it pertains to a few polarizing players.

Stewart
Cruz (it was unreal how many people ripped and were SO high on Nicks all the while ignoring insane injury propensity while ignoring a record breaking season / chalking it up to luck….) frickin hillarious!
Britt (LOL)
Mathews (Don’t even get me started) Un REAL (Top 5 – OK)
Spiller
Mendi (LOL)

B.Brown (not talented?)

CokeAndBacardi
Reply to  Jon Lambrecht
9 years ago

Love these I-was-right-about-everyone-ever posts.

Lotto4Life
Reply to  Jon Lambrecht
9 years ago

You are just as much a part of group think as those you accuse. You just don’t see the rest of your group because they’re wearing your same colors.

SJ
Reply to  Jon Lambrecht
9 years ago

Agree with Jon’s list of polarizing figures, but would discredit Spiller from the list.

His potential and production are real. Hes been a RB2 since late last season, RB1 actually down the stretch last year. No way he belongs as a disappointment – cant be a disappointment if your producing as expected, and still holding substantial upside.

I just dont see the argument here. FJax is there, but Spiller still gets it done, and FJax always has the possibility to leave or get hurt.

Raymond
9 years ago

As A bryce brown owner should i shop him around and see what i can get,or stick with and hope for at best a time share?

SJ
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
9 years ago

Do we know McCoys contract situation in Philly? If I remember correctly he signed an extension over the last year or so correct? So do believe he is staying put long term.

However, as with all regime changes, I would worry about a change of philosophy on offense and maybe even a possible timeshare 60/40. Really depends on the coach brought in, but McCoy is no lock for the workload hes had before come next season if Brown is really this good.

sean mcguigan
9 years ago

Jeff, I just got the bye in one of my leagues but have been killed by injuries….thoughts week 15(I know it is just your best guess) does Shaddy play? Harvin? Big Ben? and last but not least MJD? think first 3 have good shots to play in two weeks but MJD is longshot although Jags refuse to IR him so that tells me they may force issue with him to get back on field….would appreciate you or anyone’s else thoughts.

Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
9 years ago

Looks like Harvin is heading to the IR now. No doubt that messes with some teams’ playoff lineups.

german C.
9 years ago

remember guys, way back in August when everyone was so high on Hillman , i told you back then , he won’t be a factor this season. blocking, pass blocking you need to be on the field as a RB ( goes for any skill position ) to play in the NFL , for sure to play for Coach Fox, with his rookie Rb history and if only for the reason, that the Broncos could not leave the health of Manning ( back then it was still not known , how his status really stands ) ,in a hand of a rookie.
all was said in August……!!

dave hoover
Reply to  german C.
9 years ago

congrats

Will Finnegan
9 years ago

I have a the the 1st rd pick that may very well be last in the 1st rd and i have a 2nd and 4 3rds, since i only have 2 starting wrs Cruz and Smith (with Sanu on the upswing) i was hoping to get lucky in the draft and get wr help. Would you suggest trading my picks and trying to land a WR to add to my core?

Chris in Chuck
Reply to  Will Finnegan
9 years ago

There are a great number of WRs and RBs in this draft with potential. However there appears few clear-cut favorites in the group. Nearly every RB has an injury or a defect. Ditto the WRs.

You’re unlikely to get lucky, imo, but somebody will. The question is whether you find Arian Foster in a late round or just some guy who makes a 53 man roster. Nobody has any idea at this point so if you can’t move the picks you really need to perform the research that many of your league members won’t.

Good luck.

Cyrus Miller
Reply to  Will Finnegan
9 years ago

As the others mentioned, the draft has a lot of lottery picks, so your later picks have additional value.

That said, your starting WR’s are bad and I don’t think the rookies will perform well enough to help you. I would wait until after the combine (when hype is high) and see if anyone will trade a stud WR. If not, see if any of the cheaper veterans with lower upside are available, as they will at least give you depth.

Then spin the roulette wheel and hope your picks pan out.

Jimmy Graham Cracker
9 years ago

I’m not sure that anyone who expects Hillman and Stewart to “just fade away” deserves to be writing this article. Ridiculous statement.

SJ
Reply to  Jimmy Graham Cracker
9 years ago

Stewart already is to a degree…

look at his age, his production, his injury history, his contract, his coaching staff and offensive philosophy and tell me how long you expect a “break out” top 10/15 campaign from him.

Is he a realistic top 25 dynasty rb come 2014?

Casual Backhand Sauce
9 years ago

Curious as to why you don’t see Wilson as an elite QB and JUST a top 15 Qb?

Lotto4Life
Reply to  Jeff Haverlack
9 years ago

“It’s just a tall order.”

I see what you did there.

JBlake
Reply to  Casual Backhand Sauce
9 years ago

Not everyone can be elite, and only half can be above average. As Al Michaels kept bitching about on Sun Night Football, the “elite” moniker is way overused right now. To me, elite means a no doubt Top 10% at your position or profession. Think first-ballot HOFers, Mensa, Oscar winners, sports dynasties, etc.

In fantasy football, “Elite” production cannot necessarily be predicted, but it can be statistically determined for past performance. If I’m remembering my math correctly, the top 15 percentile performs greater than one standard deviation on a standard bell curve. Sounds like an idea for good DLF offseason article (hint, hint)…

Grant Britton
9 years ago

I’m in the playoffs and weak at rb now and going into 2013. MJD was and will be my rb1. My other backs are Turner, Ballard, L Miller and Quizz. Given the weak upcoming draft class should I trade my 1st rounder (7 – 12) for Law Firm as my rb2/3 for 2013?

Reply to  Grant Britton
9 years ago

I think there is a decent chance that Law Firm sees a pretty big reduction in his role next year. He isn’t giving them what they thought they were getting (a slight upgrade over Benson that doesn’t fumble). If you’re making the move for next year, I would probably stay put and take a shot at one of the rookie RBs.

Chris in Chuck
Reply to  Jacob Feldman
9 years ago

Agreed.
The Law Firm is a declining asset and there’s no reason to see him otherwise.
If you need talent, you should either do better than him for your draft pick or take your chances.

Another option is to trade the pick this year for a pick in 2014.
That might net a question mark addition in the third round and a better talent next year.
It depends how patient you can be.

Coach
9 years ago

I agree with the Stewart/Hillman sentiments. Every year people say that Stewart is going to finally bust out… or they say “you just wait til next year he’s going to be a stud”! I’m still waiting.

Hillman can’t even beat out Knowshow. I’d dump em both if i had em.

Now Bryce Brown on the other hand… that guy is a monster. He’s better than Ben Tate was when everyone was all excited about him. It will be a shame if he is on the bench next year for McCoy. Brown shows much more pop than McCoy has all year and the numbers show it.

Chris in Chuck
Reply to  Coach
9 years ago

Bryce Brown shows some rust, fumbling all three times in the second half. That speaks to his lack of recent football experience. Further, BB is a bit out of shape to my eye.

That said, I own him in every league possible and think he’s an appreciating asset. Whether he lives up to his considerable talent we won’t know for several years. But on a bad team he’s been great. And that’s more than most players will ever be able to claim.

SJ
9 years ago

I know i’m probably going to take sh*t for his but T.Young is possibly a good dirt-cheap buy low.

Show me one owner wanting to keep him right now.

I know whats been said about him and its basically all true, but you have to take into account his production (in the right circomstances).. his career is not likely over, and who knows, maybe you catch lightning in a bottle for an end of roster stash.

Any owner sitting with him though the mess he’s caused this year is likely to give him up for cheap. I think its worth it even if Young goes to a team with less of a passing offense and qb.

Injuries happen at NFL WR, and Young’s talent is pretty legit. Hes just an idiot. Idiots somehow always remain in the NFL if they got talent.

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