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Dynasty Decisions 2012: Best Dynasty Buy Candidate

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that our next Presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 6th.  In the spirit of this upcoming event, DLF presents Dynasty Decisions 2012.  In this five-part series, several of our writers will analyze pertinent fantasy questions and “campaign” for their various answers.

In part two of this series, we want to know “Who do you consider to be the best dynasty buy?”  Read on to see which players have been “nominated!”  If you’re swayed by a particular argument, vote in the corresponding poll on the home page.  If you’d like to nominate your own choice, tell us who and why in the comments section.

Let’s see what our writers and YOU  have to say!

Kendall Wright, WR TEN

A common dynasty adage will tell us when drafting rookies you should always go with the most talented option available.  Kendall Wright was a high draft pick in rookie drafts because of his talent, not situation.  Although he would have room to make some immediate impact, the amount of which was in debate due to the fact that he was joining an already deeply talented wide receiver core.  This included the likes of Kenny Britt, Nate Washington and 2010’s third round rookie selection, Damian Williams.

Despite the high level of talent of his competition, Wright has risen above it all to become the team leader in receptions and targets.  He works great underneath and has a knack for getting open.  Through seven weeks this season, he has amassed 36 receptions on 55 targets – that averages nearly eight targets and five receptions per game, as a rookie.

With Britt’s injuries early in the season, Wright has shown versatility by learning all of the different receiving positions of the offense.  Regardless of Britt’s situation, Wright will remain on the field and targeted often.  His yards after the catch ability have been well documented in his college career, and with the amount of opportunities coming his way it is only a matter of time before this translates at the NFL level.  Wright has the potential to be a stud and a PPR monster.

He is still flying under the radar right now despite his early success.  He is quietly building a respectable season while developing all the tools to be successful in the NFL.  His buy recommendation comes based on the fact that he has shown us all the tangibles of his play, and circumstances are building to make this potential a real fantasy weapon.  In the weekly installment “Rookie Focus,” I have covered Wright’s progression and I recommended him as a buy early in the season.  His value has increased as he has had a very fluid transition into the NFL, but he still remains the best buy in dynasty leagues.  Kendall Wright is not a “buy-low” candidate – he is a “buy-now-or-forever-be-left-behind” one.

-Chris Rohrer

Brandon Marshall, WR CHI

My colleagues are going to trot out a bunch of “up-and-comers” who they’ll tell you to buy before they blow up, but I know you’re smarter than that!  You know every developing high-profile rookie or young player carries a risk disproportionate to the potential reward.  As savvy dynasty owners, you deserve better.

I’m here to offer you the chance to have your cake and eat it, too.  What if I told you there was a 28-year old wide receiver who has already produced three seasons of 100+ receptions and five seasons over 1,000 receiving yards, and that he could likely be had for quarters on the dollar?  I’m talking about the Bears’ Brandon Marshall.

Now I know you’re immediately going to reference his immaturity, run-ins with the law, and the fact he’s already been traded twice for an aggregate four draft picks.  These are red flags and I can’t deny that.  However, as a shrewd owner, you can use this knowledge to your advantage, planting the seeds of doubt into your trade partner’s mind as to “just what will he do next?”

What you’ll be receiving is a player who has produced at every stop, despite having luminaries such as Kyle Orton and Matt Moore throwing him the ball.  Now re-united with his former Denver teammate Jay Cutler, Marshall has re-established himself as a dominant force.  Despite a bye week, Marshall is in the top ten in the league for receptions and receiving yards, and in the top five for receiving yards per game.

Finally, when considering his opposition for this vote, let’s use an analogy.  Would you rather a buy a hen and wait for her to lay eggs, or just walk down to your local diner and get an omelet?  The choice for Best Dynasty Buy is Brandon Marshall.

-Eric Hardter

Daryl Richardson, RB STL

For nine seasons now, one of the most consistent, reliable running backs in the NFL has been Steven Jackson of the St. Louis Rams – you can pretty much pencil him in for over 1,000 rushing yards and at least 300 receiving yards every year. Time, however, eventually takes its toll on even the best running backs, and then someone new is called upon to take their place. That time is coming in St. Louis and it looks like the replacement is going to be Daryl Richardson.

There are multiple players out there who seem to be next in line for jobs behind aging stars, so what exactly makes Richardson the best dynasty buy out there right now? For one, he is still (relatively) cheap; he has not done anything incredibly remarkable, nor has he been given the starting job yet, so he should not cost an arm and a leg to get. What he has done, however, is show tremendous promise. Just watching him run the ball, you can see the explosiveness he possesses and what a handful he can be for opposing defenses. Richardson passes more than just they eye test, though, the numbers say this guy has great potential as well. While it is a limited sample, through his first seven games, Richardson is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and 10.2 yards per reception while only fumbling once.

Dating back to the 2009 season, Jackson’s rushing yards have decreased every year, and, if his current pace continues, that trend will continue this year—the Rams are looking for someone to fill his shoes. The presence of Isaiah Pead prevents Richardson from being a sure bet to be Jackson’s successor, but Richardson clearly has the upper hand at this point.

Ultimately, Richardson is the best dynasty buy because he is still relatively cheap for his potential, he has displayed a great amount of explosiveness and he seems to be next in line for a starting running back job that will presumably open up sooner rather than later.

Corey Mauer

AJ Green, WR CIN

Since being drafted fourth overall in 2011, AJ Green has exceeded even the highest realistic expectations. A rookie season with over 1,000 yards receiving and seven touchdowns was the precursor to his current rating as the top receiver overall averaging over six receptions, 91 yards and a score per game.

Green has stepped up his production in parallel with draft classmate Andy Dalton, the eighth quarterback overall in fantasy points. Contributors like Andrew Hawkins, Jermaine Gresham and Armon Binns are helping to keep opposing secondaries honest, but Green is clearly the focus of this offense. If he stays healthy, Green should only build upon the connection with his quarterback.

As his rise to the top wasn’t unexpected due to his talent level and draft position (though perhaps it happened faster than originally thought given the situation he landed in), acquiring Green won’t come cheap. The second half schedule for Cincinnati includes several difficult matchups with Dallas, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh all fairly stingy against opposing WR1s. Following a friendly first half schedule, working a trade for Green may be more feasible in the off-season. If you have him or are able to acquire him, enjoy top-5 (if not the top) wide receiver production for the next few years.

-Jaron Foster

David Wilson, RB NYG

I’m probably as big of an Ahmad Bradshaw apologist as you’ll ever find.  He is “only” 26 years old.  He has “only” missed six regular season games in the past four NFL seasons combined.  That said, David Wilson was one of the top few running backs off the board in most dynasty rookie drafts this past off-season and for good reason.

He’s extremely talented and will have a golden opportunity if/when he gets his chance to shine for the New York Giants.   I’m not even remotely worried about the four-year contract Bradshaw signed in 2011 that will, ostensibly, keep him in NY through the 2015 season because that contract was very front-heavy and exactly the type of situation where the Giants will be able to cut him loose without much cap-hit after this season.  Thus, I think that between now and the fantasy trading deadline will be your last chance to acquire Wilson at a reasonable price.

-Jeff Beran

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Mark
9 years ago

What league are you playing in where Marshall can be had at .75 on the dollar?? He’s going for top 5 WR value in all of my leagues.

ManuManu
Reply to  Mark
9 years ago

To be honest, I traded Brandon Marshall and Jermichael Finley for Julio Jones before the season started. I knew there was a great chance Marshall would be better this season, but I felt better with Julio going forward instead of relying on a headcase like Marshall.

ed gordon
9 years ago

Wow, had no idea AJ Green should be on my radar. What’s next, water is wet? Terrible article.

S Newhouse
Reply to  ed gordon
9 years ago

Are you saying that the players in the article aren’t great dynasty buys? Doesn’t say these guys should or shouldn’t be on your radar. Shutup and enjoy the free articles.

Matt Wertz
Reply to  S Newhouse
9 years ago

You would be the idiot who would trade AJ Green?

Scott
Reply to  ed gordon
9 years ago

I’d put Randall Cobb on the list myself, but he’s valued differently in each league. Depends on who owns the players involved and what they want.

It’s one thing to bash an article, it’s another to be constructive.

brian
9 years ago

I don’t understand how this article is being posted at DLF. These guys cannot be had for cheap in a dynasty league unless you play with complete morons.

David Wilson was much hyped and he’s getting opportunities now. You’ll be paying face value.

Kendall Wright was the 2nd most hyped wr coming out of the draft… now he’s performing. Good luck not overpaying.

AJ Green was drafted in the top 10 of a recent dynasty start up I was involved in this summer… how does that make him a ‘buy?’ You’d be paying through the nose. Brandon Marshall is doing great, just like any of his owners would have expected.

Daryl Richardson was a great buy 3 or 4 weeks ago… now? not so much.

This article should have been titled, “Guys Who Are Playing Well And We Wish Were On Our Roster, But Are Too Expensive Now.”

Jordan Andrews
Reply to  brian
9 years ago

THE BEST DYNASTY BUY IS ALL TEH ROOKIEZ

Reply to  brian
9 years ago

I don’t think many people are putting very much stock in David Wilson’s “opportunities” to return kicks.

Admin
9 years ago

Just to clarify, this isn’t a list of guys to ‘buy low’ on…it’s a list of candidates that are recommended dynasty buys. Many times there will be no opportunity to ‘buy low’ on a player or had on the cheap. What the writers are trying to say is that they believe that at the going rate, these players are still worth going after before they’re taken completely off the table.

AJ Green may be one that is untouchable in many leagues, but he’s also a guy I’m willing to overpay for in order to acquire because of his long term value.

Don’t read into the word “buy” too much & assume that means they can be had cheaply…could be that they can be had for less than they’re worth, even if that price is enormous.

Mark
Reply to  Eric Dickens
9 years ago

The very definition of a “best dynasty buy” would be a guy you could get at a discount. All this article is saying is hey look at these guys they’re doing pretty well. I guess I just don’t see the point of the article in general if that’s the intention. Paying an inflated price for a player who’s stock is at a high just doesn’t make sense unless you think buying high is good business.

Mark
Reply to  Eric Dickens
9 years ago

from the article

“What if I told you there was a 28-year old wide receiver who has already produced three seasons of 100+ receptions and five seasons over 1,000 receiving yards, and that he could likely be had for quarters on the dollar? I’m talking about the Bears’ Brandon Marshall.”

It sure sounds to me that he’s implying Marshall can be bought at a discount… Unless “quarters on the dollar” has a meaning I’m not aware of.

Admin
Reply to  Mark
9 years ago

I’d argue that ‘buying high’ to one person isn’t the same as it is to another. Marshall for example has been underrated by the dynasty community for a long time in my opinion. Based on that, I do believe you could buy him at a price that is lower than his production value. After today’s 3 TD’s are fresh in owners’ minds, maybe not…

I would never advise someone to pay the highest price they could for a player (i.e. buying high), but just because you are paying a high price for a player, doesn’t mean you’re overpaying.

9 years ago

I think David Wilson or Kendall Wright are the best candidates on this list. I wouldn’t touch Brandon Marshall given his long history of off-the-field issues and diagnosed personality disorder. Marshall is just to unpredictable for my taste. AJ Green is untouchable, as has been mentioned in this article. Plus, I would hesitate to overpay for top players. Last year, I traded two first round picks and Eric Decker for Calvin Johnson, and he has crushed one of my teams this year. The other owner drafted RGIII and Alshon Jeffery will those picks. So, I traded a lot and ended up with damaged goods. Hopefully CJ will come back next year, but traded a ton for one player puts you at greater risk of injuries damaging your team. So, I would not go after AJ Green given his price would most likely deplete any dynasty team. I like Wilson’s talent and situation. I ended up trading Demaryius Thomas/Gates/2nd for Wilson/Wright/1st in one dynasty league. I kind of regret it, but I needed help at RB badly, so I overpaid. But DT has a long history of injuries and I don’t want to wait for the next one.

Overall, I think Wright and Wilson might be had for a cheap price relative to their future production, so I agree with both choices. Whomever you pick depends on team needs.

Jason Sandhage
9 years ago

What can Brown do for you? Bryce Brown and Andre Brown. Two names that should be on every dynasty squad.

Jordan Andrews
Reply to  Jason Sandhage
9 years ago

DUDE THATS LIKE IMPOSSIBLE!!!

unclepauly
9 years ago

When buying in fantasy-and in anything really-you want to buy low.
I think that would automatically taake Green off my list.You’re paying top dollr for Green right now.I’m not saying he’s not worth it.It’s just not the ‘good deal’ that builds you championships.Now,If you can find a sucker that is going to give you Green for less than face value..then jump on it,kids a stud.

Id put Marshall in the same catagory as Green.he’s already a superstar.Where’s the value?

I love David Wilson’s talent.But he’s stuck behind Bradshaw and Brown.Even when he does get the opportunity,it’ll always likely be in a timeshare.I own Wilson,and Im happy to have him but there’s better value on this list.

Kendall Wright.Wright’s a hell of a talent but he’s wr2(on the high end) and that situation won’t change as long as Kenny Britt is in Nashville.

That brings us to one of my favorite buy lows:

Darrel Richardson-Richardson has beaten the odds in St Louis to leapfrog a highly touted fellow rookie in Isaih Pead to share the load with Steven Jackson.We all know that Jeff Fisher loves to run the ball and we saw what he did with Chris Johnson.Drich is pretty much a Johnson clone who can take it to the house from anywhere on the field.It’s already written that Steven Jackson will be gone in ’13 and it will be Richardson’s job to lose.You’re looking at a potential RB1 that can be had for rb3(or lower) prices right now so if you can find an owner that still doesn’t believe in Richardson’s talents,grab him now, and laugh all the way to the fantasy promise land in 2013.

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