Dynasty Stock Market: Buy and Sell Candidates
The weekly Dynasty Stock Market features not only price checks, but provides player features, draft projections, trade values or a variety of other relevant topics each week to make sure we’re covering everything our premium content followers are demanding.
This week, we’re featuring some buy and sell candidates.
Making the right trade at the right time can instantly turn your fantasy season around and pay dividends for fantasy seasons to come. As part of the weekly Dynasty Stock Market, I’ll take a look at some players you could see traded soon in your dynasty league. Some of these players are coming off a career best game, while others are being cursed as they, once again, cost dynasty owners an important week of play.
Buy
Andrew Luck, QB IND
Colts rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is off to a great start for his career, currently ranked as QB9 in fantasy leagues. Although Luck is being outscored by fellow rookie Robert Griffin III, Luck is still the preference of many dynasty owners, possibly due to the injury risk Griffin poses. Nonetheless, both are fantastic dynasty quarterbacks and will be very costly in a trade. Prepare to make a huge offer and it will most likely be worth it. In his first seven starts, Luck has three 300 yard passing games and missed a fourth by just three yards. While he gets little credit for his ability to run the ball, he does have three rushing touchdowns in addition to his eight touchdown passes. Luck is already considered a top three dynasty quarterback by many, so it would be well worth it to offer a veteran like Tom Brady, Drew Brees or Peyton Manning in a deal to acquire the rookie from Stanford.
Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR
In the past couple of weeks, Carolina running back Jonathan Stewart’s dynasty value has fluctuated more than any other player in football. It began when Panthers head coach Ron Rivera mentioned to the media that the team would turn to Stewart as their featured back. Even though he has struggled this year thanks to injuries and his role in the Panthers committee of runners, dynasty owners were eager to acquire the talented young back.
Stewart has only 184 rushing yards on the season and his only touchdown came as a receiver. He ranks as the RB35, so this would not seem to be the type of player that dynasty owners would be willing to overpay for, yet that is exactly the situation many were in a week ago, with the anticipation that Stewart could save their season. Instead, facing the top rush defense in week eight, Stewart was only mediocre, rushing seventeen times for 42 yards. He was able to haul in four passes for an additional 38 yards, aiding his performance in PPR leagues.
Now, in hopes that his owners remain frustrated with Stewart’s performance and the fact that he has yet to live up to the hype we have heard so long, is your chance to buy. He will still be expensive as many rank him as a top twelve dynasty running back, but like Luck, I believe the move will pay off.
Calvin Johnson, WR DET
Wait…you’re telling me some guys are actually willing to consider trading Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson? What are you waiting for? Go now and make the offer. Yes, Johnson has been disappointing, but only because expectations were astronomical. Johnson still ranks as the WR16 in PPR leagues, but the important thing to consider is that it is completely due to his lack of touchdowns. Credit this stat to Rotoworld’s Chris Wesseling: through seven games in 2011, Johnson had 41 catches for 679 yards. Through seven games in 2012, he has 41 grabs for 638. That’s a difference of about four fantasy points spread over seven weeks. The difference in his fantasy scoring over the first seven games is nearly sixty points, due exclusively to the lack of touchdown receptions this season. The touchdowns will come, especially as quarterback Matthew Stafford heats up.
Vernon Davis, TE SF
49ers tight end Vernon Davis has been struggling lately as quarterback Alex Smith has strived to get the wide receivers more involved in their offense. Through the first five weeks of the season, Davis ranked as the TE3, behind only veterans Tony Gonzalez and Heath Miller, averaging nearly fifteen points per game in PPR leagues. In the three weeks since, Davis is only the TE42, including a week seven game where he was held without a catch or any fantasy points. His owners may be frustrated and now is the time to pounce. None of the San Francisco wide receivers are reliable week-to-week options, and Davis’ stats will come back to where we are accustomed to seeing them.
Sell
Josh Freeman, QB TB
Few quarterbacks have been more impressive the past three weeks than Tampa Bay signal caller Josh Freeman, who has averaged over 330 yards and three touchdowns against porous defenses of the Chiefs and the Saints and the typically solid Vikings defense. Even with those performances, I am still not sold on the long term prospects of Freeman. He has been aided by the addition of wide receiver Vincent Jackson, but I don’t see him ever breaking in as a weekly starter in fantasy leagues. If you share that opinion, now is a great time to sell. There are many owners likely struggling with quarterbacks like Tony Romo or Philip Rivers who are likely looking for an upgrade at the position. Freeman does have a very quarterback friendly schedule the next few weeks, so holding him until your league’s trade deadline may be the best move. Packaging Freeman in a deal for dynasty cornerstone players like Cam Newton or Andrew Luck would be a great move for any team.
Frank Gore, RB SF
49ers running back Frank Gore has looked great this year, better than most expected as he plays his ninth year for San Francisco. After missing half of the 2011 season due to injury, many expected a repeat from the 29 year old. Instead, he ranks as the RB14 and has been a solid weekly starter. Gore already has nearly 800 total yards and four touchdowns on the season. Now is the time to take advantage of the contender in your league who is lacking running back depth. Gore’s value is likely to never be this high again. Young backup Kendall Hunter has seen an increase in his carries over the past few weeks and will see his dynasty stock rise with increasing opportunities as the 49ers attempt to keep Gore fresh for the playoffs.
James Jones, WR GB
With Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings missing extensive time this season, other Green Bay wide receivers have stepped up to take his place, namely six year veteran James Jones, who ranks as the WR14 on the season. There is a great discrepancy in Jones’ receiving statistics. He is tied for first among all wide receivers with seven touchdowns on the season, yet he only ranks 42nd in receiving yards. From this, we can project that while Jones will continue to see around fifty yards per game, he is not likely to keep up his touchdown scoring pace. Now is the time to sell on Jones!
Owen Daniels, TE HOU
Houston tight end Owen Daniels has been very impressive this season, ranking as the TE5 on the season and scoring more than ten fantasy points in every week, with the exception of week six. As defenses have focused on wide receiver Andre Johnson and no other wide receiver has separated themselves as options for quarterback Matt Schaub, Daniels has taken advantage and earned the targets. He has over 400 receiving yards and four scores on the season, but he is 29 years old and the Texans have some young receivers who could see increased playing time and targets as the season continues. Also, other tight ends who have been slowed with injuries, like Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez, will likely surpass Daniels among the tight end ranks.
Check back next week as we cover more issues in our weekly Dynasty Stock Market. Follow Ryan on Twitter @RyanMc23.
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