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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) I own Kyle Rudolph, Martellus Bennett and Jason Witten.  We can only start one TE.  I was offered Robert Turbin for Rudolph, should I take that?  Note: I countered with Bennett and that was rejected. John in Houston

I wouldn’t.

You have some very nice TEs but my favorite is Kyle Rudolph.  He’s already a decent weekly option – something you certainly can’t say about Robert Turbin.  Your attempted counter was a reasonable one and I’m somewhat surprised it got rejected.  Tells me the other owner is specifically targeting Rudolph or is much higher than I am on Turbin.

Given that you can only start one TE, it does make sense to deal either Martellus Bennett or Jason Witten.  People are higher on Bennett than I am so I’m not entirely sure what to recommend you target in return.  For my teams, I’d take a future second for either of those guys.  My guess is others would say I was selling too cheaply.

2.) I’m considering grabbing Nick Foles in a couple of dynasty leagues.  What do you think Foles chances of starting for Philly are next year?  – Ron in Oregon

For the sake of the Eagles fans, I hope the chances of Nick Foles being the 2013 day one starter are extremely low!  I think I’d set the over/under at 3.5 wins if that was to happen.

First off, I don’t think the Eagles are going to make any sort of change.  They are 3-2, on top of their division and have beaten solid teams like Baltimore and arch rival New York.  There are many, many teams in the NFL that would welcome Vick with open arms.  I’m unsure why Andy Reid opened the can of worms.

More importantly, having seen Foles play football, he is the definition of raw.  He’s got all the physical tools – size, big arm, etc.  However, he is wildly inconsistent and will throw some balls that make you scratch your head.  Lest I be too harsh on him, I think he has a decent chance at developing in to a starting NFL player.  I just don’t think it happens as quickly as next year and if he’s rushed in I wonder about his fantasy value anyway.

3.) How much (if at all) have you dropped Hakeem Nicks due to the recurring injuries? – Scott from Columbus

As a Hakeem Nicks owner, I feel your pain.  It has been a very frustrating start to 2012.

I’m not dropping him much in my standard dynasty rankings.  Since his production is so amazing when he’s healthy and there really aren’t guys to move ahead of him, it’s hard to do so.  I had him ahead of Julio Jones and Percy Harvin coming in to 2012, he’s behind them now, but that’s not really that big a move.  I’d still rather own him than guys like Victor Cruz, Mike Wallace or Demaryius Thomas.

I get a lot of salary cap questions as well and in those leagues I’m dropping him further.  He’s not worth paying top dollar for and there are better cost/risk options out there.  For example, if I can get Brandon Marshall at 80% of the cost of Nicks, I’m all for it.  A year ago I wouldn’t have said that.  Many leagues probably have Nicks winding up his rookie contract in the near future.  He’s a player I would bid on, but mostly to price enforce rather than to necessarily try to acquire him for my team.

4.) I own Cam Newton and Matt Schaub.  I’m a little worried about Newton and I’m thinking about making a trade.  What are your thoughts?  Brian in Phoenix

Cam Newton was a risky player to draft early in start-ups this year.  He went in the first round of any number of mocks I did and it was concerning to me – the trend we saw at the end of last year is continuing in to this one.

His completion percentage (58%) isn’t where you want it to be and he’s not generating the passing yards you’d want out of an elite quarterback.  What is particularly concerning to me is that his only good games have come on the back of his rushing yards.  So far if he doesn’t get you meaningful points on the ground, you are in for a disappointment.  I think the hope was that he would have a 2010 Vick-type season where you got the combination of a decent quarterback and the bonus of the rushing.  So far that’s not happening.

As for making a move, I’m all for it under the right circumstances.  I suspect it’s quite possible that people aren’t all that down on Cam.  He has the allure of amazing stats and it takes time for that to completely dissipate.  If I was a contender, I’d be fine offering Cam for Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Matt Ryan.  And I think I might be able to ask for a sweetener back in that deal as well.  If I was in a bit of a rebuild situation, I’d probably look to the Andrew Luck owner to craft a deal.

5.) When do you give up on rookie WRs?  I’m still holding Arrelious Benn who I took in the middle of the first round and I want to free up the roster spot. Bill in Maine

Good question!

Specifically on Arrelious Benn, you can safely cut him at this point.  They are only using him sparingly – less than 50% of the offensive plays and he’s not getting many targets.  I’m very disappointed by Benn who I rated quite highly in 2010.  I’m not entirely sure what derailed him, but possibly the ACL tear at the end of his rookie season is the culprit.  Right before that he appeared to be coming on nicely.

To your more general question about when to give up on rookie receivers, there isn’t a clear cut answer.  At a minimum you have to wait patiently through their rookie year.  For example, Michael Floyd owners are probably a tad nervous, but they need to stay the course.

The wide receiver position is difficult to learn in the NFL and the playbook is far more complicated than college systems.  Additionally, you need to look at which wide receiver position they are being asked to play.  For example, as a Benn owner you surely recall Tampa Mike’s breakout rookie season.  He was asked to play the X position most of that season.  In most offenses that has a less complicated set of routes as compared to the Z position.

I like to monitor the stats as well – snap count (and how it’s trending), what position he’s lining up at and, of course, targets.  These numbers give us some approximation of how the coaches and quarterback feel about the wide receiver’s development curve.

If we must have a rule of thumb, I will say I wouldn’t cut any receiver I had highly regarded in the first two years (short of some catastrophic injury), but I’m certainly monitoring them closely from day one.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

26 Comments
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Adam
9 years ago

How about patience with rookie running backs? Specifically Mark Ingram. I thought he was injured last year, but even this year there seems to be zero burst or athleticism. He’s under contract for this year plus two more with the Saints, who hardly use him at all.

John
9 years ago

Thanks for answering my question regarding Rudolph & Turbin. I ended up dealing Martellus & a 2nd-rounder for Leshoure. We’ll see how it plays out!

ManuManu
Reply to  John
9 years ago

Wow. Great deal!

rich cicack
Reply to  ManuManu
9 years ago

I like that deal also.

Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

Tim, I’m surprised you would recommend jettisoning Witten for a 2nd rounder. I realize that he is on the wrong side of 30, but he is also the model of consistency, Having gained at least 900 yards receiving in the past 5 seasons. I say Jason has at least 3 more quality seasons left in him. Rookie picks outside of the top 5 are wildly overvalued for the most part.

Mangelo
9 years ago

How do you reconcile taking a 2nd rounder for Kyle Rudolph? That’s where he was drafted in most rookie drafts and he has developed well. On top of that, it would seem his arrow is pointing up. Just seems like a lateral move to me with considerable downside.

Mangelo
Reply to  Mangelo
9 years ago

Sorry, I see you wrote Bennett or Witten for a 2nd

Mercenaries
9 years ago

Is it a smart move to trade top-tier talent for depth? PPR Dynasty league – I have Foster and Ridley as my top two RB’s with JStew, Tate, and Blount as my backups. At WR I have Megatron, Julio, and Andre, but only G. Little, LaFell, Baldwin, and V.Brown behind them.

Another owner in my league swung some deals and managed to get Charles, Matthews, DMC, and D. Murray for his RB’s but his WR’s are Antonio Brown, Dez, DeSean Jackson, and Dennarius Moore. He’s looking to upgrade his WR’s by moving one of his RB’s.

Would it make sense for me to package either Calvin or Julio with JStew and probably Little to get one of his RB’s and two of his WR’s?

Trevor
9 years ago

I managed to land both RGIII and Andrew Luck in my dynasty league. The guy who got Trent Richardson is willing to trade me Richardson for Luck. I’d prefer to keep Luck and move RGIII, but he’s insistent. Should I pull the trigger?

Ray White
Reply to  Trevor
9 years ago

i think both rg3 and luck will be top 5 before long but so will trent at his position. not sure either of them gets the trade done in a season or 2. As much as I too would like to keep luck long term i would move him for trent and get those bench points into the lineup

Josh Gans
Reply to  Trevor
9 years ago

and I am the opposite.
Luck is already a borderline QB1 and his career should last 10+ years..whereas Trent will be a stud for 5 or so if we are lucky.

Ray White
Reply to  Josh Gans
9 years ago

so a qb1 on the bench for 10 years behind the other qb1 is better than a rb1 in your lineup for 5?

Josh Gans
Reply to  Ray White
9 years ago

Why would Luck be on my bench for 10 years? Why would you even draft him then if you dont plan on using the guy?
If you have 2 legit QB1s, you can play matchup, theres injuries, there are bye weeks etc.

Plus it totally depends who your other RBs are.

And I agree with the poster, I’d rather move RG3..he has already been injured..he is a remarkable talent who I believe will have a much shorter career, at least as an elite QB1, because of his natural athletic ability and instinct to run. If it means getting a different RB, so be it. I love me some Trent, but that doesnt mean getting someone like Jamaal Charles is a huge downgrade.

cowboys fan
9 years ago

I’m needing some advice on a trade that was sent to me when you get some time. I was offered Romo, Bryant, and Lynch for TRich. My other Rb’s are Ridley and and that’s about it. I also have at WR Jennings, Bowe, Josh Gordon, Britt, and Demayrius Thomas. The owner that proposed the trade has Charles and so far Lynch at RB along with Luck and Romo at QB. He also has AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Sidney Rice, and so far Bryant at WR. My other QB’s are Flacco and Locker. This is a PPR and he is currently sitting at 5-0 and I’m 1 GB at 4-1. Thanks for any advice. I thought about asking him to replace Romo with Luck but not sure.

Paul
Reply to  cowboys fan
9 years ago

When in doubt build around QB and WR. If there’s any chance you can get a decent RB from someone else in a trade I’d ask about T-Rich for Luck and Dez Bryant.

Ken Dogson
9 years ago

Nicks over D. Thomas?

Thomas is beating Nicks 2011 stat line.

ziggy19
9 years ago

my TE`s are
Kyle Rudolph(Min – TE)
Jermichael Finley(GB – TE)

would like to add a 3rd for depth purposes, just curious on which player you would add considering value,potential short term and long term.
Dustin Keller(NYJ – TE)
Dwayne Allen(Ind – TE)
Brandon Myers(Oak – TE)
Adrien Robinson(NYG – TE)
Rob Housler(Ari – TE)
D.J. Williams(GB – TE)
Lance Kendricks(StL – TE)
Dennis Pitta(Bal – TE)
Marcedes Lewis(Jac – TE)

Lyle
Reply to  ziggy19
9 years ago

I like Pitta and Dwayne Allen

StevieMo
Reply to  ziggy19
9 years ago

I like deep sleeper Jordan Cameron on CLE, Pitta and Allen.

Jon Lambrecht
9 years ago

As a M.Ryan owner, no way I’d move him for Cam. And I definately wouldn’t add a sweetener to the deal on my side. I’d be expecting a bit from the Cam side to make it work. If you watch the games, Cam is having a vey hard time reading progressions and hitting his second or third read. This happens all to often and I think it shows a bit of what many had thought last year about his second half skid continuing into this season. How often has Lafell been open only to see Cam not see him and then scramble for 4-5 yds and take a hit? We (most) expected the rushing numbers and definately the rushing Td’s to drop. Matter of fact, I would only move Brady or Brees for him if I was in a big time rebuild. Even then… Not sure I’d do a straight up deal.

Also, I think most Nicks owners have rose colored glasses. We frequently hear (when healty he dominates). That may be partially true, unfortnately, we hear it very often. He now is firmly behind Cruz in my wr rankings and the numbers firmly indicate he (Cruz) should be bumped up on DLF’s rankings as well.

Ryan Moen
9 years ago

i vote more DLF dynasty “rankers” updates their rankings

Eric Barrett
9 years ago

Need an answer quick…I’ve been offered Lamar Miller and Miles Austin for Robert Meachem and Johnathan Stewart…It’s a PPR league and I don’t have any chance of winning this year…

StevieMo
Reply to  Eric Barrett
9 years ago

Don’t give up on Stewart. Too soon.

Josh Gans
Reply to  Eric Barrett
9 years ago

Like Austin over MEachem.
Jonathan Stewart is the biggest tease in the NFL. I’ve traded him and traded for him like 3x each in the same league. No idea what to think of him.

Jon Lambrecht
9 years ago

I would do that trade Eric. In my mind Austin > Meacham and I absolutely would stay away from the Stewart debacle. At least with Miller you have a 21 year old rb that is currently behind R.Bush and a plodding D.thomas. I think it is a good move for you since your not winning “this” year. Do it!

Eric Barrett
9 years ago

Thanks Jon !!! I did that deal and like you, I think it was the way to go. Thanks aain !!!

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